Michigan Wolverines: Way Too Early Win/Loss Predictions for 2010 (Games 1-3)

I know it's January and we haven't seen the spring game yet. I know it's too early to tell exactly what the Wolverines are going to do in 2010, but it's too tempting to not take an early look into the crystal ball.

What are are chances to win each and every single game?

Will Michigan make a bowl under Rich Rod (finally)?

How will the defense improve, if they improve at all?

If Michigan makes a bowl what does it mean for the program...and does Rich keep his job?

Before we get into a game by game analysis, I would like to start out making a few specific predictions about 2010.

1) Tate Forcier will have a breakout season, somewhat similar to Tim Tebow's sophomore year. Even sharing duties with Denard Robinson and/or Devin Gardner he'll complete about 65 percent of his passes and exceed 2,500 yards, even approaching 3,000!

He will easily have over 20 touchdown passes and most likely reduce his interceptions slightly. Protecting the football will be better, but not perfect. The zone-read will become easier to he and the other quarterbacks on the roster.

2) Michigan will find a true go to target and possibly even a very reliable number two.

Roy Roundtree will continue to be the number one and catch 70 passes for over 1,000 yards.

Darryl Stonum, Je'Ron Stokes or Junior Hemingway will likely be the number two and get 40-50 catches. New faces will step up.

3) Michigan will have noticeably it's best rushing attack under Coach Rod.

I predict Fitzgerald Toussaint or Teric Jones to appear as a dominant rusher; however, there are a handful of candidates. Expect not only a dominant rusher to appear, but as well a much better offensive line.

The entire read-option attack will look more polished and effective.

4) Denard's role will expand beyond quarterback, and he will be a more Percy Harvin like player. Expect to see him break longer runs on a more consistent basis, catch passes as well as throw completions. He may even return a few kicks.

5) The defense will still have serious wrinkles early in the season. They will improve up front and against the run slightly, but still need to develop young talent in the secondary.

Expect some steady improvement as the season goes, as well as a few young faces contributing early.

Week One: The Connecticut Huskies

Why Michigan Could Lose This Game

UConn returns 16 starters from a team that won eight games and its bowl versus an SEC opponent. That should get your attention, and I'm certain it has the attention of the entire staff and team.

Connecticut lines up and comes straight at you and is well coached by Randy Edsall. They aren't a pushover and most Michigan fans know this.

They are disciplined and physical, and have had success against solid competition. Their wins over Notre Dame and South Carolina, as well as the 47-45 loss to Cincinnati, show that they can and will play hard no matter who you are.

The main danger of this team is you are playing them early, so you don't know exactly how good they are.

The second danger is you know they have displayed that they aren't the type to lay down.

Why Michigan Could Win This Game

First let's examine UConn's weaknesses: While they do have a lot of guys coming back, they also lose some really key players from their 2009 squad.

First they lose Andre Dixon, who at 6'1" and 210 lbs., accumulated nearly 2,000 yards in his career, including 1,093 in 2009. Dixon also rushed for 14 touchdowns last year.

In addition to Dixon, Connecticut loses its top two receivers in Brad Kanuch and Marcus Easley (6'2" 210). Kanuch had 74 careers receptions, and the Huskies really lack size outside at receiver going in to 2010.

They also started three seniors on the offensive line in 2009 so they will have less experience up front than Michigan.

Lastly, Uconn lacked consistency at quarterback last season throwing 13 touchdowns to 16 interceptions. Plus, these guys weren't true freshman who will be throwing to a star-studded cast like Michigan.

Now if we examine Michigan's strengths, we see that the Wolverines have (for the first time since 2007) a non freshman/walk-on starting at quarterback. At least IF we start a freshman it won't be out of necessity.

This spring the Wolverines will have three quality quarterbacks pushing each other. They will have undoubtedly the best offensive line under Rich Rod's watch, and a crop of experienced and very highly talented wide receivers.

Michigan's under the radar passing attack will be complimented by a stable of running backs that are as versatile as any in the nation. These guys range from 5'6", 170 lbs., to 6'0", 235 lbs., and have solid recruiting reputations, experience in the offense and game experience.

The biggest question is Michigan's defense; if they allow Connecticut to sit on the ball and possess it 40 minutes plus score more than 30 points, they are in deep trouble.

Connecticut gave up 25 points per game in 2009, which was third worst in the Big East! By reputation that says a lot, as they also weren't terribly young nor inexperienced yet they gave up nearly as many points as Louisville and Syracuse.

They should be a bit green in the secondary this year with the loss of two seniors as well as Jasper Howard.

Early Forecast

Michigan has a 60-65 percent chance of winning the game, although a much smaller chance of winning by more than a touchdown.

Look for Connecticut to run the ball and try to keep the chains moving with high percentage throws. Look for Michigan to adjust to this game plan by attacking the LOS and stacking the box.

The Wolverine secondary will give up some big plays early, but ultimately Greg Robinson's team will be better at defending the run and pressuring the quarterback as well as forcing turnovers.

Home field advantage and a strong scoring offense will be enough for Michigan to win this tough opening day contest.

P.S.: The Huskies have struggled to defend the spread offense, particular West Virginia's, so this should be interesting!

Week Two: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish 

Why Michigan Could Lose This Game

The Fighting Irish are a talented team. They have had multiple top ten recruiting classes stocked full of blue-chip athletes over the past few seasons.

They have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, as well as experienced playmakers at running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Michael Floyd is arguably one of the best wide receivers in the country since Michael Crabtree left for the NFL.

Brian Kelly is an offensive guru and a proven commodity at every institution he has coached, and has won multiple Big East titles. He hasn't stepped into a situation like Rich Rodriguez did: The cupboard isn't bare and he has shown the ability to go "air raid" or spread option or both.

Point being Notre Dame won't being going three and out every possession and they are going to score. On top of that, the game is in South Bend.

Why Michigan Could Win This Game

Notre Dame has hired a new coach and he is running a new system. Though it may not be a spread option, the offense is still a bit more specialized than Charlie Weis's system.

While Brian Kelly tries to install the spread offense at Notre Dame, this spring he is also left without a serious option to practice at quarterback.

Dayne Cryst is expected to be the starter, but will miss the spring practices and spring game while recovering from a torn ACL. These aforementioned issues, along with an inexperienced offensive line, should slow the offense down a bit early in the season.

Notre Dame also loses three seniors from the secondary, including starters Kyle McCarthy and Raeshon McNeil.

Early Forecast

This is probably going to be another score fest. I expect Tate Forcier to have a strong outing and his receivers will probably put up some decent numbers.

The number one reason I would pick Michigan is I question whether or not Dayne Cryst and the Irish receivers will be in sync. Michigan's quarterbacks and receivers should have a better rhythm and be better in terms of depth.

Michigan should have a better line and running game. Neither will have a great defense.

Give Michigan a 55 percent chance at victory, although there is a decent possibility they run away late.

Week Three: The Massachusetts Minutemen

Why Michigan Could Lose

Well, OL Vladimir Ducasse just left for the NFL draft and he was a pretty good one.

Let's see...nope. Nothing. There aren't many (if any) legitimate reasons to believe UMass has a shot to win this game.

However, we could find precedent for Michigan losing to FCS opponents. The loss to Appalachian State was the loss heard round the world, and UMass would love nothing more than to stroll in to Ann Arbor and steal one.

Although UMass came close to knocking off Kansas State in 2009, the resume is not as impressive as it sounds. The Minutemen went on to finish 5-6 while giving up 52 to Hofstra, 43 to Delaware and 34 to Richmond. All of these teams, quite frankly, have inferior talent to Michigan.

Why Michigan Could Win

It's really self-explanatory. Michigan has an offensive depth chart way ahead of anything Massachusetts can handle. The Minutemen had very unimpressive offensive numbers in 2009, and shouldn't be able to score much more than 10 points on Michigan.

I'd love to able to tell my readers something they don't know, but truthfully UMass will be completely outclassed in every way.

Expect a matchup more similar to Delaware State than Appalachian State...maybe worse. This blowout will be over by halftime.