Tuesday Hoops Notebook: Is Texas Toast?

With all that talent, I really want to like Texas, but there is something seriously wrong with Rick Barnes' bunch.

I don't know why the Longhorns can't seem to put together a complete game the last few weeks. After starting 17-0 and earning their first-ever No. 1 ranking, a loss at Kansas State on Jan. 18 triggered the team's current 2-5 stretch.

Fortunately for the Horns, they can go 4-3 the rest of the way, finish 23-8 and 9-7 in the Big 12 heading into the conference tournament, and probably earn a five seed in the NCAA Tournament...

That's not too terrible.

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Or, Barnes can get his team figured out and Texas can return to being the team we saw in the first two months of the season...

The team many expected to reach the Final Four.

A team that doesn't spend 11 straight scoreless minutes against the No. 1 team in the country, as it did against visiting Kansas Monday night. A team that doesn't commit 17 turnovers leading to 27 points for the opposition.

Until I see such a turnaround, however, it looks like Texas will need to play near-perfect basketball just to advance past the second round.

Even to achieve that 4-3 finish, Texas needs to get back to playing physical, committing itself to the glass and earning better looks. The Longhorns seem to launch many contested shots. Unless it's just a coincidence that they battle teams playing their best defensive games.

Or possibly there's just not enough movement in Texas' sets and therefore open looks are scarce.

Whatever the reason, Texas has some time—not much, but some—to get things figured out and get back on the winning track.

'NOVA LOOKING NICE

Guards and depth, guards and depth, guards and depth.

That's what will take Villanova back to the Final Four this year.

Even in their loss Saturday at Georgetown, during which the Hoyas built a 23-point lead, the Wildcats played hard the entire time. It seemed like Villanova was always within striking distance, even late in the game.

Monday's impressive win at No. 4 West Virginia was another reminder that the Wildcats' backcourt is one of the best in the country, and that few teams can boast an 11-man rotation the way Villanova does sometimes.

FINAL FOUR PICKS

My projected Final Four picks sees one change this week, and it involves the two teams described above. I thought Texas might have turned the corner with a nice road win at Oklahoma State last week, but I'm obviously hurrying far away from that pick now. I had Villanova in the Elite Eight, but the Wildcats are now my pick to win the West.

+ EAST : Syracuse (West Virginia)
+ SOUTH : Kentucky (Duke)
+ MIDWEST : Kansas (Michigan State)
+ WEST : Villanova (Gonzaga)
+ SLEEPER : Siena

TUBE TIME

Keep your schedule open for the following games this week:

+ Tuesday : Tennessee at Vanderbilt (7 PM ET, ESPN)
+ Tuesday : Purdue at Michigan State (9 PM ET, ESPN)
+ Wednesday : Duke at North Carolina (9 PM ET, ESPN)
+ Thursday : Washington at California (9 PM ET, ESPN2)
+ Thursday : St. Mary's at Gonzaga (11 PM ET, ESPN2)
+ Friday : West Virginia at Pittsburgh (9 PM ET, ESPN)
+ Saturday : Tennessee at Kentucky (9 PM ET, ESPN)

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