New Orleans Saints: Beating The Spread

Maybe the Indianapolis Colts will lose the Super Bowl. Maybe they'll win. But probably not by the four or five point spread. Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts are good, but they're not "that good."

This year, there were plenty of strong candidates in the playoffs. Few, if any, were decisively worse than the others. Meaning that a strong "final 12" contributed to a very strong "final two."

Of the last eight Super Bowls, five were decided by three or four points. It's true that one of the three exceptions was the 2007 Super Bowl, Indianapolis Colts versus the Chicago Bears. But that won't happen every year.

Manning is a good quarterback, but he is "beatable," as the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers found, when they beat the Colts in the divisional round.

The reason was a defensive "quarterback," safety Troy Palomalu, who could "read" plays before they started, and was either back or in the quarterback's face five seconds after the snap. New Orleans has a similar defender in Darren Sharper.

Kerry Rhodes was supposed to play that role for the New York Jets. He actually did so against the San Diego Chargers, but not against Manning, which is why the Jets lost by 13 points to him.

Then there's the matter of Colts' defensive end, Dwight Freeney. He may play, he may not, but if he plays, it will be when "hurt."

Don't expect more than 80 percent from him. Meaning that playing him would represent a judgment that 80 percent of Freeney is worth more than 100 percent of his back-up.

And finally, Drew Brees is a decidedly better quarterback than the New York Jets' Mark Sanchez. Brees has passed for 4388 yards and 34 touchdowns in the regular season, about the same as Manning. Sanchez logged only 2444 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Brees is in "mid-career" for a football player, seasoned enough to be a real threat, but young enough to be "fresher," than Manning. In any event, the two quarterbacks are evenly matched, so it's not a case of the Jets theoretically better defense against the Colts' clearly superior offense.

It's possible that Brees will beat Manning head to head, and it's also possible that the victory will be decided by a DEFENSIVE score, with the Saints' (or Colts') defense making the winning play.

All in all, this is shaping up as a tight, two-sided game. Any bettor who believes otherwise is probably making a mistake.