Carl Crawford in the First Round of Fantasy Baseball Drafts? No Thank You!

Eric StashinFeb 1, 2010

How high do you value Carl Crawford? Enough to draft him in the Top 15? Top 10? Top eight?

Personally, I don’t think he belongs in the first round of a standard 12-team league, yet he’s gone as high as fourth in fantasy drafts, according to Mock Draft Central (where he has an ADP of 15th). Let’s split the difference, for arguments sake, and discuss the possibility of him going eighth in fantasy drafts.

That would likely put him ahead of a few of the first baseman (some combination of Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, and Ryan Howard) and an outfielder (Ryan Braun or Matt Kemp).

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First, let’s look at his statistics from last season:

606 At-Bats
.305 Batting Average (185 Hits)
15 Home Runs
68 RBI
96 Runs
60 Stolen Bases
.364 On Base Percentage
.452 Slugging Percentage
.346 Batting Average on Balls in Play

His numbers are a little bit odd, aren’t they? He’s a big-time stolen base threat (having stolen 50 bases or more in five of the past seven seasons), yet, with a high-powered offense behind him, he failed to score 100 runs?

In fact, he has only scored 100 runs twice in his career and not since 2005. His career high, which came in 2004, is just 104. That’s not an elite number, not by a long shot. That’s nothing you’re not going to get from any of the other options likely available.

Just look at their totals from 2009:

Teixeira - 103
Cabrera - 96
Fielder - 103
Howard - 105
Braun - 113
Kemp - 97

So, of the other players who could be viable options at that spot, five of them beat him in runs. one tied and none were below him. Considering his advantage is his speed, he would have to beat these guys out in runs to make him worth considering for me.

The main problem is his ability to draw a walk. For his career, his walk rate is just 5.2 percent, which has led to a career .335 OBP. If he’s not getting on base, he’s just not going to score.

We know that Crawford isn’t going to outperform the other options in home runs or RBI. Granted, he has good power for a pure speed player, hitting 15 HR last season and reaching double-digits in five of the last six seasons. That’s a nice bonus, but is it really enough? I don’t think so.

He could even under perform some of them in average (outside of Howard and maybe Fielder). Kemp, Braun, Cabrera and Teixeira will all equal, if not outperform, him there, with the potential to reach .310 or better.

That leaves us at stolen bases, where we know Crawford is elite. Still, there are concerns. He had 44 SB in the first half of the season and just 16 in the second. It’s worth noting but not something to dwell on. Given his track record (as we discussed), he should be among the best in the sport.

Still, it is easier to get speed late in your draft then it is power. Someone like Everth Cabrera, who has the potential to reach 40 SB, has an ADP of 252.56. If Crawford was a big-time contributor in runs or average, then maybe I could justify it, but the fact is that he’s not. His strength is something that will be available to you later in the draft.

Don’t get me wrong, Crawford is a fantastic player and one well worth taking in the second round, but I can’t see using a first round pick on him. Forfeiting that much power early on for a player who is only going to give you an advantage in SB is a big mistake.

What are your thoughts? Is Crawford a player you’d consider in the first round? Which, if any, of the players I mentioned would you select him before?

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