Too Much Has To Go Right for Ice Edge

Ice Edge, the group that wants to keep the Phoenix Coyotes in Phoenix, so long as they are allowed to play five games a year in Saskatoon and perhaps some playoff games there too, probably has too much against it to make it work.

They might get the team by default.  The sooner the Coyotes are taken off the NHL's hands, the happier the league will be.  Someone has to be the owner (sucker?).

But too much has to go right for this situation to work.

1.  The new owners have to find a way to undo the damage caused by the bankruptcy and Balsillie affair.  Attendance is improving because the team is playing well, but how many people in Phoenix really believe in the team, after the bankruptcy and the attempt to move it?

2.  Part of the reason for the increased attendance is the discounts the NHL are offering the fans.  Can Ice Edge afford to keep that up and ice a competitive team?

3.  There's still the ruinous lease with the Glendale arena.

4.  The Coyotes have never made a profit since they arrived in Phoenix.  What makes Ice Edge think they'll make one now even with Saskatoon support?

5.  Will Phoenix fans want to share their team with another city in remote Canada?  The Glendale lease also stipulates that every home game must be played in Phoenix.  What happens if the arena refuses to consent to any games away from Glendale?  How is this arrangement supposed to attract fans in Phoenix anyway?

6.  There has been a successful precedent of a professional sports team playing in two locations.  Green Bay in the NFL used to play half of its games in Milwaukee.  But Green Bay posed as a Wisconsin team.  Phoenix, an Arizona-Saskatchewan team?  That's stretching it.

7.  There's no guarantee that Saskatoon will go for it either.  They've got all the ticket prices worked out ($90-$100) but do fans really want to pay those prices for some seats up in the rafters?  Ice Edge is banking that Canadians will do anything to get an NHL team.

8.  The Board of Governors may want to get the team off its hands, but how many of them really believe in a two-city concept, especially with a small-market, Canadian city that doesn't have an NHL-size arena?

9.  The deal also needs the approval of the NHL Players Association.  How will they view it?

10.  The deal may look good to Ice Edge now but that's based on their own projected figures.  The reality may be something else.  What if they fail to reach the projected figures in both Phoenix and Saskatoon?  What if the team starts playing well and then both cities demand more games?  And as that wise man, Abraham Lincoln prophetically said, "A house divided cannot stand."

11.  If Ice Edge really believed in Phoenix, they wouldn't need to play any home games anywhere else.

The biggest thing Ice Edge has going for it is that the NHL wants to stick to Bettman's directive of keeping franchises in non-traditional markets in order to get a rich American TV contract, and that they want to get this perpetual money-losing franchise unloaded on to a new owner (sucker).  In view of this burden, the league might be willing to sell to anyone, no matter how shaky their finances are or how preposterous their scheme is, so long as even a facade is maintained.

So what could happen?

1.  Ice Edge gets the team and miraculously the Coyotes start drawing enough fans in Phoenix to kiss punky little Saskatoon goodbye forever.  Then the NHL will hand out halos for all concerned.

2.  Ice Edge gets the team and the Phoenix-Saskatoon situation remains in the same status indefinitely.  Both cities grumble about having to share games, but both realize that they need each other to survive and nothing is changed.

3.  Ice Edge gets the team and the Coyotes start gradually slipping away to Saskatoon.  As indifference grows in Phoenix, Saskatoon gets more games.  Eventually Saskatoon makes an offer to build an NHL-size arena and the NHL on petition from Ice Edge is forced to watch the Phoenix Coyotes become the Saskatoon Coyotes.

4.  Ice Edge gets the team and starts losing so much money that they have to move the team or face bankruptcy themselves.  One possible destination would be Hartford because one of the owners has ties to that city, but they would want a commitment to a shovel in the ground for a new arena if that were to occur.

5.  Ice Edge can't get Glendale to agree to any games in Saskatoon or some other miscalculation rears its head and they withdraw.  Then the NHL either hopes some other keep-them-in-Phoenix bid is made or announces they will now consider bids for moving the team to another city.

6.  The NHL turns down the Ice Edge bid and announces that it will now consider other bids to move the team provided they are (unlike Balsillie) within the NHL's transfer rules.  Given Bettman's unofficial encouragement of a Quebec arena at $400 million, that would be a likely pay-off destination if the NHL were to see a formal commitment to build an NHL-size facility.  Other fine cities that would likely be successful are Seattle, Portland, and Milwaukee.  And of course there's that pariah, Hamilton.  Or the NHL may be dazzled by more risky places like Houston, Las Vegas, Kansas City, and Oklahoma City.

So get ready for "Coyotes: The Sequel", coming to an NHL league near you.