How Auburn Football Will Improve in 2010

To analyze the areas where the 2010 Auburn football team will need to improve, we must first take a brief look at the 2009 Auburn football team.

Auburn ran 842 offensive football plays this season, averaging 6.16 yards per play. While this might read well, it puts Auburn at about the same amount of plays this year as Alabama, Florida, Arkansas, etc.

Auburn had 830 defensive plays this season, allowing 5.11 yards per play. However, Alabama ran 774 defensive plays in 13 games as compared to Auburn's 12, and Florida ran 777 also in 13 games. Arkansas ran 813 allowing 5.9 yards per play.

We all have the perception that the Auburn defense was the weak point this year. If Auburn had limited the total amount of defensive plays per game to similar totals for Alabama, Florida, or Tennessee, then the Auburn defense would have been ranked in the top twenty this year. The No. 19 team in total defense in 2009 was Wisconsin: They ran 729 total defensive plays and allowed 5.11 yards per play.

While the Auburn defense could certainly use improvement, the offense performed quite well when compared to the rest of the nation.

Auburn has addressed the shortfalls of the defense with excellent targeted recruiting. Expect improvement from the defensive backfield, defensive line, and linebacker positions.

With improvements in experience and depth, one would expect about a .5 yard per play improvement in this area; this will put the Auburn defense back to the same statistics fans have become accustomed to. The other big improvement needed is to reduce the number of defensive plays.

The typical Auburn game was made up of 140 plays, split evenly between offense and defense—this was not what was expected or wanted this year. If the Auburn offense had been able to produce their goal of 85 plays, the 2009 season would have looked much different.

Auburn averaged 70 offensive plays per game this year. If they had simply averaged 75 plays, they would have gained another 360 yards of offense (total for the year) while giving up 333 fewer yards. A 693 yard swing would have made a big difference. If Auburn was able to run 85 plays per game, it would have improved the defense by 919 yards.

Increasing offensive snaps to 85 per game would have decreased the yards allowed by an opponent over the season to 3,342. Alabama had the No. 2 defense in the nation this year and allowed 3,142 yards. This goes back to the old adage: The best way to defend an offense is to keep it off the field.

If the Auburn offense churned out 15 more plays per game, it would translate to five more first downs. This would up Auburn to about 308 first downs; while this might seem like a lot, NCAA leading Houston gained 406 first downs this year. Alabama gained 272 with their slow methodical ball control offense.

Auburn gained 131 rushing first downs this season and 108 passing. These numbers need to improve to the 150 range in both categories, or about 13 first downs rushing and 13 passing per game.

The truth is that all of this would have easily happened this year if the Auburn offense had not floundered in most of the big games. These numbers could have been largely made up with a good offensive showing in the LSU and Arkansas games alone. Add in a little better production in the Kentucky game and Auburn is there.

While many are of the opinion that Auburn was strong on offense, Gus Malzhan and the Auburn coaching staff would tell a different tale. A good example of this is the free fall the Auburn offense encountered when second string running back Onterio McCalebb was injured and largely ineffective the last half of the season. Auburn no longer had enough running backs to get the job done in this system.

With Ben Tate going to the NFL, this is an area that needs attention. Auburn has red shirt freshman Dontae Aycock ready to step in. He will only be good for about 15 carries per game, though. McCalebb is also going to be back and healthy and should account for another 12 to 15 plays. The problem with this scenario is that McCalebb will only account for six to 10 traditional running plays—this leaves Auburn with a 25 to 30 play deficit at running back.

This is where the recruits come in.

Auburn has a commitment from one great running back and another that could develop and be great. Marcus Lattimore is being targeted to fill the remaining void; he is the type of running back that could account for 12 to 18 rushing plays per game along with a few passing plays. Auburn needs either him or another durable, traditional running back in this recruiting class.

Auburn also needs depth on the offensive line. Fatigue was a prevalent problem this season. Auburn has commitments in this year's recruiting class that will add depth and effectiveness to this unit.

Expect the offensive line to be one of the most improved areas on the Auburn football team in 2010. The improvements to this area alone will account for many of the added first downs needed next season. Many of the drive stalls this season could be directly attributed to this area.

Quarterback was a bright spot in 2009. Chris Todd stepped up and carried the Auburn team after a spring practice that had not provided Auburn with a viable starter.

The problem with this position in 2010 will be inexperience. Auburn will have two quarterbacks that can perform at the level the graduating Chris Todd did this year. This will be needed as fatigue and possibly injuries will affect this position.

There is also a strong possibility that Auburn picks up Cameron Newton in this recruiting class. He is an experienced starting quarterback and would improve Auburn's offensive output exponentially. If he arrives as predicted, he would handle most of the snaps, but there would still be a need at this position. Expect some use of the wildcat to fill this void along with the other quarterbacks on the roster.

Auburn was marginally adequate at receiver this year. This will change to being one of the most talented receiving corps in the nation next season. Auburn is losing nothing and gaining every part needed with this recruiting class. Expect huge improvement from this part of the Auburn football team in 2010.

Every year I do an analysis of each SEC team. I take away the players expected to leave and add the players returning and the recruits that make it to the field. This usually gives a little insight into how each team will do next season. A complete analysis of the Auburn football team in 2010 is still pending. I will do a complete analysis after spring practice.

In this preliminary analysis, it seems Auburn should reach its 85 plays per game goal in 2010. This and this alone will return the Auburn defense into the top twenty in the nation. I also expect some big improvement in the defense as players naturally improve, and experience and depth is added.

I would expect Auburn to be around No. 15 in total defense next season or better. This would be a welcome improvement from being No. 51 this season. While this seems like a huge leap, it would only take a reduction of 30 yards allowed per game to put Auburn in the top 20. With the improved effectiveness of the Auburn offense, the reduction of plays for the opponent alone should do at least this much.

On offense Auburn finished the regular season at No. 20 in the nation. I expect the added depth and improved skill level to push this unit to a much higher grade in 2010. With the added playmakers and stronger offensive line, the increase in overall plays will be met and exceeded in my opinion.

I would expect Auburn to move into the top 10 in total offense next season. This sounds like a big jump but in actuality another 300 total yards of offense this year would have put Auburn between number 5 and number 8 in the nation—that is just a 25 yard per game improvement.

Auburn was the worse team in college football in red zone defense this season, ranked 120 out of 120. Auburn allowed opponents into the red zone 43 times and they scored 41 (95 percent success rate), with 29 touchdowns and 12 field goals. If Auburn can just limit some of these to field goals next season it will make a huge impact.

I expect improvements in the defensive line and added experience at all of the defensive positions to improve the red zone defense. I expect Auburn to move up to No. 60 or better in this statistic in 2010. Just the improvement in the linebacker position should help this much. Again, a reduction of offensive plays for Auburn's opponents will also help this tremendously.

Most Auburn fans are convinced that the defense is the major problem for the team, but a quick look at the season paints a much different picture. While Auburn did improve on offense this year, it did not improve enough. This is to be expected when rebuilding a program. I expect all of the pieces to be in place and come together next season.

2010 should give us a great idea of what is ahead. The truth is that this year, Auburn's biggest void was offensive. Coach Malzhan will have his unit up to a higher level of production in 2010 and it will make a huge difference.