Blue Jackets-Avalanche: Pregame Analysis

As mentioned in my last article, there's nothing tougher than to write about a team who's playing absolutely terrible; however, as a favor to a friend, who does this for his site (something about his wife having a baby—excuses, excuses), I've decided to analyze tonight's game.

So, here's the backdrop for the game.

During the 2008-2009 season, the Columbus Blue Jackets (CBJ) owned the Colorado Avalanche (Avs), sweeping them in all four scheduled games between the two teams.  Well, that was last year, when the CBJ were marching towards the playoffs, and also fully-buying into Hitch's system.  Conversely, the Avs were experiencing their first awful season in many years.  At that time, they were still buried in their retro movement, thinking they were still locked into 1996—bad plan. 

Fast forward to this season, and to their first meeting two weeks ago in Columbus.  The CBJ were in the early stages of their current 2-8-4 meltdown.  The Avs were coming off of a bit of a swoon as well, and were in the later stages of a long road trip, one that was not going that well.  Add to that the back story of Adam Foote's return to Blue Jackets for the first time since asking out of Columbus at the prior season's trade deadline, and facing an extremely hostile crowd. 

The result? 

The CBJ were generally flat, and the Avs walked away with a 3-2 victory, with a goal attempt by Jason Chimera being correctly waived off, as it went under the netting, after the netting was pulled off of its moorings, in the waning seconds. 

So, on to the analysis:

Offense

As it relates to five on five action, this one's too close to call.  The CBJ are ranked 12th in the league in goals scored per game, while the Avs are ranked 13th.  And, as we all know, the CBJ are struggling to score goals, as they have dropped from their prior perch of 9th in goals scored per game. 

The Avs scoring is almost entirely forward-based, with left wing Wojtek Wolski leading the way with 13 goals.  The CBJ's leading goal scorer is, of course, Rick Nash, with 16 goals and 33 points in 33 games played. 

The CBJ do hold an edge in their secondary scoring, with four players compiling double-digit goal totals, and several others nearing that mark.  Meanwhile, the Avs have three players with double-digit goals, but there's a drop-off in goal scoring from there. However, Paul Stastny has contributed several assists (26), to be their overall point leader, as he has 34 points in 36 games played. 

Blue-line goal scoring is somewhat identical, with not much from either blue-line.  Anton Stralman is the CBJ's primary point-getter, predominantly scoring on the power play (PP).  The Avs leading defensive point-producer is John-Michael Liles, with 11 points in 24 games. 

Edge: Push

Defense

From the standpoint of shots allowed, or goals against average, the Avs rank 14th and the CBJ rank 28th. In terms of save percentage, the Avs are 9th, while the CBJ are 28th. The edge here definitely goes to Colorado. 

But, in adding the most critical stat to the analysis—blocked shots—the edge is a landslide in favor of Colorado, as the Avs rank 3rd in the league in blocked shots.  Columbus is ranked 17th in blocked shots, but in the category of deflecting shots into their opponent's net, while there aren't stats, for that category, my guess is the CBJ are near the tops in the NHL. 

In assessing the defenses, from a +/- view, the edge also definitely goes to the Avs, as most of their defensive corps have solid + ratings.  The CBJ?  Jan Hejda's -2 is their best +/- result, and that's by quite a significant amount. 

So, without a doubt...

Edge: Avs (Significant)

Goaltending

While Steve Mason has been playing much better as of late, the edge has to go to Avs' starting netminder, Craig Anderson, who comes in with a GAA of 2.57 and a stellar save percentage of .920.  It should be noted though, that Anderson is coming off of a tough outing, in which he stopped only 16 of 21 shots.  However, it was against the Washington Capitals and they can make any team's GAA and save percentage go south. 

Steve Mason, while inconsistent, has been playing much steadier as of of late, with a GAA of 2.54 and a save percentage of .910 during the last four games.  While Mason surrendered only three goals during the last meeting in Columbus, his save percentage was a sub-par .842.

Seeing how the CBJ won't be confused with the Caps, and seeing that they're struggling to score, lately...

Edge: Avs (Significant)

Special Team

This could be one trends that tells the story more than statistics.  Yes, the CBJ do rank No. 5 on the power play (PP); however, they were sitting in the No. 1 position just a few week ago and their once studly PP has struggled, not only in scoring goals, but in taking advantage of the PP in key situations.  The Avs rank 17th, but the CBJ are struggling to convert on clutch PP opportunities—does anyone recall the blown five on three advantages with no goals, or little to no shots on goal?  I thought so. So any advantage here will probably be negated.

As for the penalty kill, Columbus ranks 17th with an 80.4 percent rate. On the other hand, Colorado is ranked 16th, with a kill rate of 80.3 percent.  So, in a word, close.

Edge: Push

X-Factor

This one comes down to the psyche of the teams, and as they are playing at home, the Avs have a huge advantage here.  To quote what was overheard by the Blue Jackets' first ever coach Dave King behind the 'Yotes bench (King is an assistant coach), "This is a fragile team". 

Nuff said.

Additionally, while perhaps not quite yet working, the CBJ appear to be trying to return to their 2008-2009 identity; they're trying to finally buy into Ken Hitchcock's defense-first, tight-checking system. 

While the results may be unproductive, the CBJ have been much more competitive.  This was, however, in the friendly confines of Nationwide Arena, and this game launches a tough four game road trip.  Then again, for a team struggling as much as they have, a road trip might just be the best medicine.

So, when you factor in a fragile team, struggling team, who is playing on the road against a team who has recently found their stride (in the Avs)...

Edge:  Avs

Prediction:  3-2 Avs

I do believe this will be a tightly contested game.  However, given my Mendoza line level of accuracy (in pregame predictions - .200), that should spell a CBJ victory.