Drafting Toby Gerhart: Which NFL Teams Would Fit Best?

First, Toby Gerhart is a future starting NFL tailback, not a FB or H-back. I came to that decision not this season, but in 2008 when Gerhart rushed for over 100 yards against a USC defense that had eight guys drafted last year, had nearly 1,200 yards on the season, and this was without a passing game.

The NFL scout websites have his speed estimated from a 4.48 to a 4.65. I personally believe that Gerhart would run between 4.55 and 4.58 at his pro day, which is good speed for a 235 lb. TB who will probably add 5-10 more lbs as he gets older.

With that out of the way, here are some teams who should strongly consider drafting Gerhart and why. Yes, Gerhart will be a first round draft pick, and I also believe that in the right situation he would start as a rookie.

1. New England Patriots. Why? They have no RBs good enough to start, and with the best days behind Tom Brady and Randy Moss, they need an RB to pound the football. Why not? They could use help on defense.

2. Cleveland Browns. Why? Because they have no running game. Why not? Because they will be drafting very high and have a ton of other needs (basically everything).

3. Houston Texans. Why? They have hands down the worst group of RBs in the NFL that are dragging down an otherwise good offense. Also, Gerhart would be a Terrell Davis-type runner for Houston's Denver Broncos-type scheme.

Why not? There is no reason. The Texans have a lot of needs, but RB is by far the biggest. Plus, unlike Cleveland, the Texans will be in a region of the draft where Gerhart will make sense.

If Anthony Dixon is not on the board and the Texans decide the same thing about C.J. Spiller that Clemson did—that he is not an every down tailback—then Houston should do their best to trade up to get him.

4. Kansas City Chiefs. See Cleveland. They could certainly use Gerhart, who would be a very popular player there (as he would also be in Cleveland) but they have way too many needs and will be drafting far too high.

Then again, as Cleveland does have their QB and WR situations established, if they can trade down and still get Gerhart, they'd have their offense set for the next 5-6 years.

5. Detroit Lions. See Kansas City. They will be drafting too high and need help at a lot of places on one hand, but they have high investments in a young QB, WR, and TE and could really use a guy to come in and give them 20-25 good carries a game.

The Lions do need an RB in the first round this year, no doubt about it. However, they probably need one that would be higher rated than Gerhart, and Mississippi State's Anthony Dixon will probably be the highest rated RB in this draft.

6. Seattle Seahawks. They need a QB, but west coast offense teams generally try to get their QBs in trades or free agency or take them later in the draft and develop them because the college game doesn't really translate to the west coast offense, and because that offense takes three to four years to learn.

Other than QB, however, RB is clearly their biggest need. Julius Jones, Justin Forsett, Edgerrin James...that is almost as bad as the RB situation in Houston and Cleveland. Like Houston, if Gerhart on the board and Anthony Dixon is already gone, they should take him.

7. Philadelphia Eagles. Don't act surprised. The Eagles do need help on defense, but that's what free agency and rounds 2-7 of the draft are for. Toby Gerhart would give the Eagles what that franchise has only had once since the days of Dick Vermeil (and that was Ricky Watters), which is an every down starting tailback.

Overrated Brian Westbrook is done, and he was nothing more than a glorified third down back. LeSean McCoy has some ability, but teams need more than one good tailback anyway.

Also, the Eagles are set at WR with DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Jason Avant (Kevin Curtis fans, that guy is done also). I do agree that they could use a TE. However, if Gerhart for some strange reason tumbles down the board, the Eagles should move up and get him just like they did for Maclin last year.

This is true no matter who the Eagles' starting QB is. If they decide to extend Donovan McNabb after this season—and I don't think they will even though this is McNabb's best year as a passer, it isn't statistically but in his best statistical year he had Terrell Owens in his prime plus two very good TEs plus a healthy Brian Westbrook—then they will need the every down RB that they have never had in order to actually get to and win a Super Bowl.

If they don't keep McNabb, then they will quickly find that Kevin Kolb does not have McNabb's ability and won't be consistently effective without a legitimate starting tailback.

So those are the seven teams that need Gerhart in theory. The three teams in bold should definitely see about getting him. The two italicized teams could use him but have other considerations. For all seven teams, Gerhart is practically guaranteed to start as a rookie.