What BYU and Oregon State Must Do To Win The Las Vegas Bowl

I know that someone has already written about the Las Vegas Bowl on here, but I wanted to give my own analysis on what I think each team must do to win this game.

What BYU Must Do To Win

Offensively, BYU needs to take advantage of their athletes at the TE and RB positions. Dennis Pitta and Andrew George should have a big game, as they create a match-up problem for Oregon State in the passing game.  McKay Jacobsen, I think, can cause a match-up problem for Oregon State as their corners are susceptible to being beat when in Cover 0.

Harvey Unga is a big bruising back that could cause a problem for Oregon State in the rushing game.  In fact with Manase Tonga as a lead back in the I, I would look to pound the ball down the throat of Oregon State.  Doing this helps the defense and keeps the Rodgers' Brothers off the field.

Max Hall, BYU's QB, needs to ensure that he doesn't force throws.  There is nothing wrong with holding onto the ball and eating a sack, especially early on in the game. Additionally, Max spreading the ball ensures that Oregon State can't just focus on one receiver.  

Defensively, people will say: well duh, stop the Rogers boys.  This is a very true statement, as nearly 63 percent of the entire Oregon State offense runs through these two workhorses.  However, I would first stop Jacquizz Rogers.

Just to give you an idea, Jacquizz has rushed for 1377 yards with a 5.4 ypc average, has 20 of Oregon State's 24 rushing touchdowns, is a good receiver out of the backfield with 509 yards receiving with a 6.9 ypr average and one touchdown. That leaves "Quizz" with 45 percent of touchdowns scored.

James Rodgers is the main receiving threat for Oregon State with 1,004 yards receiving at 11.5 ypr and nine TD's, 289 yards rushing at 5.4 ypc and one TD on the season. He and his brother account for 67 percent of all touchdowns scored.  It is important that BYU swarms and are sure tacklers in this game, as these two players are small, quick, and shifty to avoid tackles.

Sean Canfield has grown as a QB this year.  In fact, he is the first team All Pac-10 QB for 2009.  BYU must get pressure on him or he will sit back and pick them apart, even if the Rodgers Brothers are covered.  As a senior he is a seasoned QB that doesn't force passes.  He has passed for 3103 yards; a 70 percent completion avg, 21 TD's, and six INT's on the season.  His passer rating is 148.3 on the year.  BYU must change up their coverages to confuse him, so that the pass rush can get to him.  

Defensively, the big player that can cause problems for BYU is Stephen Paea.  In only his 4th year playing football he is a first Team All Pac 10 player.  He requires double teams constantly, and is in the backfield on a regular basis.  Just to give you an idea, Chip Kelly was most worried about him for their game, and if you had a chance to watch, you saw him cause two fumbles.  BYU's O-line must be strong and keep their leverage to prevent him from dominating up front.

What Oregon State Must Do To Win

Feed the Rogers Brothers!!!!  Yes, I know I said BYU needs to limit the Rogers Brothers, but if you are Oregon State you have to ride what got you here.  I expect Oregon State to figure out ways to get the ball to these two and cause problems for BYU defensively.

Protect Canfield and you win.  I think that the dark the horse in all this will be Canfield. If Oregon State protects Canfield, even if the Rodgers brothers are limited, he can lead the Beavers to victory.  Protect him so he can find his receivers, and you will win.

Someone needs to step up.  Someone besides the two main offensive weapons needs to have a big game.  If that happens, look out BYU, 'cause you could be in trouble for this game.

Defensively, Oregon State needs to get to Max Hall, who has thrown for 3,368 yards with a 67.5 completion percentage, 30 TD's, and 14 INT's this season.  His current passer rating is 160.9 and he is Second Team All MWC for 2009.  He has a strong arm and spreads the ball well, though he does tend to favor Pitta when he needs a big play. However, his major weakness is that if you get in his face, he starts to force throws leading to turnovers.  In fact, in the first five games of this season, he had 11 TD's and 10 INT's. 

I would use the speed of the defensive line, if I was Oregon State. BYU's offensive line is strong and big, but they struggle with speed. I would also study the game played between TCU and BYU this year. BYU should run behind their big strong line to neutralize Oregon's speed.  However, if the Beavers can get BYU into passing downs, I think they can cause problems.  

As for players I would neutralize?  Harvey Unga as a back poses a real problem.  I think the only player that would compare to him, in size, is LeGarrette Blount.  Unga has 1,016 yards rushing with 5.5 ypc and 10 TD's on the year.  He also has 109 yards receiving and one TD.  Oregon State must have great play from Stephen Paea in the middle to disrupt the running game.  I would look for a way to confuse the offensive line on who to block to disrupt the running game.

Finally, I would find a way to neutralize Dennis Pitta.  He is a First Team All American and has 784 yards receiving this year, with seven TD's on the year.  The most important stat though, is his 57 catches, more then the next two receivers combined (McKay Jacobsen and O'Neill Chambers).  You limit his catches and you will limit the BYU offense. If BYU needs a big first down with the passing game I would look to cover Pitta.

Coaching match-ups, I would give the edge to Mike Riley of Oregon State.  If you have had a chance to watch them you know that his teams tend to get better as the year goes on.  I believe that he is a great game-planner and will have his team prepared.  

Too often BYU coaches seem unprepared.  If this holds for this game, look out 'cause the game could get out of hand.

Finally, the last area I want to cover is the kicking game.  So often games come down to the kicker, so lets compare.  

BYU's Mitch Payne is nine of 13 for FG's on the year with a 69.2 percentage.  However he is only 50 percent from 40+ yards.  If it comes down to it, BYU must get inside the 30 to have a fair chance of making the FG.

Oregon State's Justin Kahut is the Second Team All Pac 10 PK for 2009.  He is 22 of 27 on the year for 81.9 percent made.  However, he is 21 of 24 from inside 50 yards.  I have to give the edge to Oregon State.

So to recap, BYU must:  Slow the Rodgers brothers down, limit big plays, force Oregon State to settle for FG's, protect Max Hall, and run the ball with Unga.

Oregon State must: Get the ball to their big playmakers, Protect Canfield, slow down Pitta, get to Max Hall, and stop Unga.

Simple, right?  I do look forward to a great game.