Don't Be So Fast To Say Tim Tebow Can't Be a NFL QB

I admit, I was skeptical about Tim Tebow's ability to be an NFL QB. Reading articles like this , which are more wishful thinking than actual analysis, only make me more negative about the idea. Such articles do not analyze what NFL teams really need from the QB position and Tim Tebow's potential to give it to him, but instead talk about his heart, leadership, character, ability, how he is a "winner," and other such things.

Really, talk like that should end.

Plenty of great athletes can't succeed as NFL QBs. As a matter of fact, for most teams the QB is the worst athlete. Even the much maligned and marginalized kickers are often better athletes than QBs.

Also, the things related to his "leadership, heart, and winning"...well, let's just say that playing for an outstanding football team helped. Would we be saying those same things about him had he gone to Baylor, Vanderbilt, Duke, or some losing mid-major program instead of a team that won a national title in 2006, with Tebow mostly watching Chris Leak, Percy Harvin, and that great defense? Or how about in 2008 when Harvin stepped up big time and the defense held Oklahoma to 24 points?

Don't get me wrong, Tebow had an outstanding college football career, but a lot of his wins and accomplishments were aided by the fact that his team was better than the opposing team nine games out of 10 (or perhaps even 19 games out of 20). Suffice it to say that if Tebow goes to the Cleveland Browns, Saint Louis Rams, or Buffalo Bills, that won't be the case. His success won't be because of his ability, character, leadership, or winning traits (because lots of successful NFL QBs have those), but because of his ability to run an NFL offense.

People say that an NFL team should adapt their offense around Tebow's skills. While that could have—and should have been done for a guy who runs a 4.2 40-yard dash and can throw a ball 80 yards in the air on a frozen rope like Michael Vick, there is no offense that can be designed for a guy who runs like a full back and has real problems throwing key routes.

A lot of people are talking about how the shotgun spread is coming to the NFL. But that won't benefit guys like Tim Tebow, because it won't be the version that allows you to run the option or plow up the middle like Tebow does. Instead, the shotgun spread will help the cause of the Big 12 and mid-major passers like Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford, Zac Robinson, Chase Keenum, and Max Hall. Tebow runs a different version of the spread than those guys, and either can't make the throws that they can, or doesn't have the experience or proven ability.

So, if Tebow will succeed in the NFL, he will have to do so out of a fairly conventional offense, which means taking snaps under center and being a drop-back, pocket passer. Further, running a wide-open high scoring offense wouldn't be in his interests.

Instead, Tebow's cause would be helped if he played on a team with a strong running game that limited the number of passes that he had to throw and the areas of the field that he had to throw to. Where his ability to pull the ball down and bull his way to a first down if WRs are covered down field would be an asset.

Can he do it? I say "definitely maybe." You see, Tebow would have a ton of work to do. His footwork, mechanics, and delivery need to completely change, and he would also have to learn an NFL offense. He would be a project in the true sense of the word, and it would take years before he is consistently effective. An NFL franchise would have to see the benefits of investing this time and effort in him, and it would take a lot of hard work and patience from a guy who, according to various reports, hated being Chris Leak's backup his freshman year.

This is not to say that it is impossible. It can be done, and it has been done before by a guy who ran the same offense as Tebow did in college. Vince Young? Nope. Not only is Young a much faster runner, but a lot of people forget that he threw for 3000 yards and 26 TDs his senior year. This was with his often leaving games early because they were blowouts, and being surrounded with mostly mediocre WRs that really were no better than Riley Cooper, Aaron Hernandez, and David Nelson.

I am not saying that Vince Young was a better college player than Tebow, Gator fans, but only that Alabama would have had to come up with a completely different game plan to contain him.

Instead, the prototype and role model for Tim Tebow is—ironically—the very guy that the owner of his team and the governor of his state is trying to push aside in Tebow's favor: Jacksonville Jaguars QB David Garrard.

Like Tebow, Garrard ran the shotgun spread option offense in college. Like Tebow, most NFL scouts and analysts stated that Garrard's future position in the NFL was linebacker or RB as opposed to QB, and further Garrard was a 240-pound guy who was more likely to run over people than outrace them or run around them. And like Tebow, Garrard was a very raw, unproven passer with poor mechanics, footwork, and fundamentals.

The comparison is not perfect. Garrard played for a mid-major where he was the best player on his team (where Tebow plays on a powerhouse, loaded with future NFL players) and Garrard also had more arm strength on certain routes. Tebow, on the other hand, is a more accurate QB with a much higher rating than Garrard ever had.

Despite the differences, Garrard and Tebow are very similar players. They played in similar college offenses, have similar builds and abilities (Tebow is taller, Garrard a bit faster and quicker), and have similar liabilities and limitations. And David Garrard—despite his many detractors, a very bad team on offense, and a revolving-door situation with offensive coordinators—has developed into a capable, successful NFL QB. Garrard led the Jaguars to the playoffs in 2007, and the Jaguars are in the thick of the playoff hunt now.

So while the Garrard comparison does give Tebow reason to believe that he can succeed in the NFL, it should also give him a cold hard look at reality. It took Garrard years to become a capable NFL QB, and even now he cannot be confused for a franchise-type QB. (Not that one needs a franchise QB to win a Super Bowl...look at Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer. Further, not all franchise QBs win Super Bowls.)

Garrard received little playing time his first three years, during which time he attempted only 130 passes (completing only 70). Garrard got more playing time the next year, but only because of injuries to the starting QB. It was only his fifth and sixth years in the NFL that he became a bona fide starting QB, and that was when his completion percentage finally hit 60 percent.

During that time Garrard endured a lot of adversity, including a life-threatening bout with illness, a bad team around him, and an organization and coaching staff that weren't committed to him (and truthfully, still aren't). But now, Garrard has reached the point where even if Jacksonville does cut him loose, he will easily be able to find a starting job elsewhere. However, it took him eight NFL seasons to reach that point.

Perhaps with better players around him and better coaching, Tebow can reach Garrard's level, but the question is: Will Tebow have the patience? Will an NFL team have the patience with him?

It was rather easy for Garrard, who came in the NFL as an unheralded, relatively low draft pick. Further, the Jaguars did not see him as a starter right away, but initially as an eventual replacement for Mark Brunell and later as a backup and change of pace for Byron Leftwich. However, despite all the problems, it wound up giving Garrard the years that he needed to develop, and he took full advantage of it.

Tim Tebow needs a similar situation. The worst thing would be for him to go into the NFL as a high draft pick and be expected to play immediately or even within a year or two and turn around a bad franchise. Instead, the team that drafts Tebow has to know that he is going to be a 4-6 year project, and has to be confident that the product that develops after those 4-6 years will be worth the investment.

On Tebow's part, he cannot expect to be a guy who comes into the NFL as a superstar expecting to turn some franchise's fortunes around and being one of the faces of the NFL. Instead, he will have to be like Garrard, Kurt Warner, Rich Gannon, Brad Johnson, and Jake Delhomme. He'll have to be someone glad for the opportunity to be an NFL player and is willing to work to make the best of it, even if it means being a journeyman until he finds a system and situation that works.

So, Gator fans, your star QB does have a real shot at an NFL career. Just prepare yourself for the fact that you may have to wait 4-6 years before you can start cheering for him again. If you are truly a fan of someone that you insist has meant so much to the Florida Gators and to college football, then that won't be much of a problem.

And if Tebow has all the character, leadership, and work ethic—traits that Gator fans claim—he will handle being out of the spotlight and apply himself to mastering the NFL game just fine.

Again, the key is hoping that Tebow goes into the right situation, and that he does not do so as a high draft pick expected to play immediately. For instance, the Browns and the Texans ruined any shot that Tim Couch and David Carr had by playing them way too early, and I fear the same may happen to Matt Stafford with Detroit.

For this reason, it was probably actually good that Tebow did not win a second national title. Had that happened, he would have gone into the NFL with the "Greatest college player ever!" hype, and it would have been impossible for some team looking to sell tickets not to take him in the first round and play him immediately.

Now the chances of him falling to the third round to a team that sees him as a developmental QB are far higher. Now, Tim Tebow and Gator fans need to root for the Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs so Tebow won't fall into the worst situation imaginable.