Rebuilding Over: Post-Season Thoughts and a Look Ahead in 2010

Saturday was disheartening, to say the least.  Surprisingly enough it wasn't our defense that didn't show up Saturday, but our offense.  Forcier looked much more effective on paper (going 23 of 38 for 226 yards) than Pryor (going 9 of 17 for just 67 yards), but factoring in Forcier's 5 turnovers - it was the offense, not the defense that disappointed.

That being said, I am glad to say that Michigan played Ohio State quite well - and had Michigan been able to get that field goal near the beginning, and perhaps convert some red-zone opportunities (we botched 3 of them), then I think it would've been the Michigan fans singing "Hang on Sloopy" after the game.

But what's done is done, and 5-7 is where we're at.

I am, however, relentlessly optimistic.  Donovan Warren is coming back, which is great, because he has been one of the lone bright spots in a secondary that wasn't worth writing home about.  Forcier will have an admittedly too-long offseason to prepare for next year.  Thankfully our offense will not be lead by a true freshman.  We have very solid recruits that are currently committed, and I don't think the many blue chip recruits at Michigan Stadium were terribly disappointed with what they saw.

At any rate, I would like to make a few observations:

In 2008, Michigan finished averaging 20.3 PPG, 290.8 total YPG, and a measly .273 3rd down conversion fraction.  Flash forward to 2009, Michigan finished averaging 29.5 PPG (Michigan led the Big Ten in scoring offense the entire season until after this week).  For comparison, Penn State averaged 29.7, Wisconsin averaged 31.1, and OSU averaged 29.6.  The Michigan offense was up there with the best in the Big Ten.  The Wolverines averaged 403.3 total YPG (one of three teams in the Big Ten finishing with over 400 YPG), and converted about 40% of their third down opportunities.

Overall, the offense did their job - Rich Rod made it like night and day from last year.

The offensive success, however, was masked by the defense's dismal performance, surrendering 30+ points in 4 straight games (Penn State, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin).  I will not go into all of the defensive deficiencies, because quite frankly, I don't have the patience to type them all out - but the point is that our offense was there and our defense was not, in general.

Enter Greg Robinson.  His defense won the 1997 and 1998 Super Bowls.  In 1998, his defense held Miami scoreless in the divisional playoffs, only allowed a single touchdown to the NY Jets after a fumble by the offense on the 1 yard line (sound familiar?), and only allowed a single, meaningless touchdown to the Atlanta Falcons in the 4th quarter of the 1998 Superbowl.

That begs the question:  why hasn't it worked at Michigan?

Well, consider that Michigan has had 3 Defensive Coordinators in 3 years.  This means that the juniors on the team have not had the same coach for more than one of their years.  The inconsistency in coaching personnel translates to inconsistency on the field.  Combine the instability of the DC position with a sub-par talent level, and you've got a recipe for a disastrous defense.

The only thing that will fix it is time.

If you read the brief offensive comparison between 2008 and 2009, you can easily see that we've significantly improved on the offensive side of the ball.  If Greg Robinson is allowed to have another year to get his defensive scheme in the minds of his players, and the players won't have to re-learn a defense (for the 3rd time), then our defense should be much improved.  

In fact, if Greg Robinson can do with the defense in year 2 what Rich Rod has done with the offense in year 2, then this team is a 10+ win team next season.  Considering 3 games were lost by a combined 10 points, I'd say that at least 8 wins next year is feasible - an excellent recruiting class and a sophomore signal caller, we'll be alright.

Michigan should win between 8 and 11 games next season.  We're so not dead.

As Michigan's 5-7 season came to and end, Forcier stood on the sidelines motionless and stunned.  Michael Shaw approached Forcier and hugged him before heading into the locker room as time ran out:

“I told him, he’s a freshman. This is his team,” Shaw said. “Rebuilding is over. Michigan is gonna be back.”

GO BLUE.