NCAA Tournament 2022: March 5 Stock Watch for Men's Bubble Teams
Several of the men's college basketball teams on the bubble for the 2022 NCAA tournament appear to have received the message that they need to finish strong if they want to dance.
Others...well...maybe they just don't want to partake in March Madness.
A lot has changed along the bubble over the past two weeks or so. While VCU, Virginia Tech and others are making a valiant push to the finish line, there are some like Wyoming and Xavier that are having a world of trouble hanging onto a bid that seemed like a sure thing not that long ago.
With one week remaining until Selection Sunday, here are the bubble teams that recently have done the most to either improve or ruin their case for a spot in the tournament. Teams are listed in no particular order, outside of oscillating between "Stock Up" and "Stock Down."
In the resume section for each team, NET is the NCAA's primary sorting metric upon which all quadrant-based records are derived. RES is the resume metric and is the average of Kevin Pauga Index and Strength of Record. QUAL is the quality or predictive metric, and is the average of KenPom.com, Sagarin and BPI rankings.
This will be our final standalone bubble stock watch of the season, but bubble comings and goings will feature prominently in next week's live bracket as we attempt to pinpoint those final few spots in the field.
Stock Up: North Carolina Tar Heelss
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Resume: 22-8, NET: 38, RES: 36.0, QUAL: 32.0, No. 11 seed in Bracket Matrix
Past Four Games: W at Virginia Tech, W vs. Louisville, W at NC State, W vs. Syracuse
Much has been made about North Carolina's lack of quality wins this season. Aside from a sweep of Virginia Tech (unlikely to make the tournament) and a home win over Michigan that keeps bouncing between Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2, there's absolutely nothing good worth mentioning.
And yet, thanks to only one loss to a team not projected to dance—a really bad one at home against Pitt, but still, only one—the overall resume is in great shape.
Well, not great shape. But, as far as recent history is concerned, things are looking good for the Heels.
Syracuse had a nearly identical resume last year (NET: 40, RES: 43.0, QUAL: 36.0, 1-7 vs. Q1, one bad loss—at home against Pitt, interestingly enough) and was the top No. 11 seed. The best comparison from 2019 is probably VCU, which ended up in the Nos. 34-42 range in each of NET, RES and QUAL with one great win and three bad losses and still managed to get a No. 8 seed.
Of course, the journey isn't finished for the Tar Heels. They still have a road game against Duke on Saturday, plus the ACC tournament.
If they beat the Blue Devils, go ahead and punch that ticket. But even with a loss, UNC is still assured a double bye in the ACC tournament as either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed—which likely comes with a quarterfinal pairing against either Wake Forest or Virginia Tech, either of which would be a Quadrant 1 game. Losing that one wouldn't be the end of the world, but it would definitely make for some sleepless nights in Chapel Hill leading up to Selection Sunday.
Where things could get bad, though, is if Wake Forest or Virginia Tech loses its opener to a team like Louisville, Boston College or Pittsburgh, which would turn UNC's opener into a must-win, Quadrant 3 affair. But, again, they could avoid any and all Championship Week drama by knocking off Duke on Saturday.
Stock Down: Xavier Musketeers
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Resume: 17-12, NET: 37, RES: 44.0, QUAL: 45.0, No. 10 Seed in Bracket Matrix
Past Four Games: L at Connecticut, L at Providence, L vs. Seton Hall, L at St. John's
Are you old enough to remember mid-January?
On January 18, Xavier was 13-3 overall with two of those losses coming against Villanova. The Musketeers were my top No. 5 seed and my second-highest seeded team out of the Big East.
At that point, Xavier winning the NCAA tournament seemed more likely than Xavier missing the NCAA tournament. But the X-Men have lost nine of their past 12 games, including a bad home loss to DePaul and a season sweep at the hands of St. John's.
They did at least add Quadrant 1 wins over Connecticut and Creighton during that collapse. However, at 17-12 overall with good-not-great metrics and an 0-6 record against the top half of Quadrant 1, the Musketeers may have played their way out of the field—and could really put a bow on this nightmare by ending the season with a home loss to Georgetown.
But now I also have to ask: Are you old enough to remember March 2017?
Xavier started out 13-2 and appeared to be in excellent shape for a bid, only to lose 10 of its next 15 games. That team ended the regular season by winning a must-win game against the then-worst team in the Big East (DePaul) and proceeded to win two games in the Big East tournament to narrowly sneak into the dance as a No. 11 seed—and made it all the way to the Elite Eight.
While you couldn't pay me to pick this team to the Elite Eight right now, it sure is an interesting parallel. Xavier needs to beat Georgetown on Saturday, after which it would need to beat (probably) Butler in the first round of the Big East tournament to set up a quarterfinal pairing with No. 1 seed Providence. And if they lose that game to the Friars, really the only thing that changes about this resume is that 17-12 becomes 19-13. Would be a photo finish.
Stock Up: Two-Bid Atlantic 10
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Davidson's Resume: 25-4, NET: 43, RES: 33.5, QUAL: 51.3, No. 9 Seed in Bracket Matrix
Davidson's Past Four Games: W vs. Saint Louis, W at Duquesne, W vs. Fordham, W vs. George Mason
VCU's Resume: 21-7, NET: 49, RES: 31.0, QUAL: 54.7, First Team Out in Bracket Matrix
VCU's Past Four Games: W vs. Richmond, W vs. George Mason, W at Massachusetts, W vs. St. Bonaventure
For a while, the A-10 had five teams on the bubble—Davidson, Dayton, Saint Louis, St. Bonaventure and VCU—but it was unclear if anyone would receive an at-large bid.
Davidson has long been in the best shape of the bunch, but even the Wildcats turned into a great big "Maybe?" after a Feb. 12 loss to Rhode Island. With Davidson as the projected auto bid, though, we've spent most of the season assuming this would be a one-bid league.
After some head-to-head cannibalism and a few other disappointing losses, Dayton, Saint Louis and St. Bonaventure have fallen pretty far out of the at-large conversation. But Davidson has won 24 of its past 26 games to likely lock up a bid, and VCU has come on strong with eight consecutive victories.
As far as the metrics are concerned, the Wildcats and Rams are just about inseparable. VCU is slightly behind Davidson in NET and the predictive metrics; slightly ahead of Davidson in the resume metrics. Both teams have two Quadrant 1 wins and no particularly bad losses. They're both 9-1 in true road games. And in the head-to-head series, the home team won each game by two points. The only real difference is that VCU picked up a few more losses against a considerably more challenging nonconference schedule.
Both the Wildcats and the Rams will close out the regular season with one of their tougher games to date. Davidson plays at Dayton. VCU travels to Saint Louis. And KenPom has each of them projected to lose their Quadrant 1 game by a score of 68-65.
If they both pull off the "upset" on Saturday, I think they both become a lock for the dance. But a loss wouldn't be devastating for either squad. It just might mean they need to do a little bit of work in the A-10 tournament to seal the deal.
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Stock Down: Wyoming Cowboys
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Resume: 23-7, NET: 47, RES: 45.5, QUAL: 81.7, No. 10 Seed in Bracket Matrix
Past Four Games: L at Colorado State, W vs. Nevada, L vs. San Diego State, L at UNLV
On Valentine's Day, we were in love with Wyoming. The Cowboys were 21-3 overall, didn't have any bad losses and had just won four straight against Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and Utah State. Even though BPI hated Graham Ike, Hunter Maldonado and Co., they looked like a sure thing for the NCAA tournament.
But starting with a bad loss to New Mexico on Feb. 15, the Cowboys have now lost four of their past six games, plummeting back to the bubble in a hurry.
At least they won their home games against Nevada and Air Force. Dropping either of those would've been a disaster. Still, the snowball effect of the four games they did lose hasn't been great.
When my mid-February tournament projection published on the morning of Feb. 15, Wyoming was up to 25th in the NET with an average resume metrics ranking of 21.0. That was good enough for a No. 7 seed.
Less than three weeks later, the Cowboys are barely clinging to a top-50 ranking in both the NET and the resume metrics, and they are also hanging onto a spot in the field by a thread.
They have one regular-season game remaining—at home against Fresno State on Saturday. A loss to the Bulldogs might be enough to knock Wyoming out of the projected field, pending the many other bubble results yet to come this weekend.
A win wouldn't lock the Cowboys into the field, but it sure would bring them closer to that goal. It would also guarantee them no worse than the No. 4 seed in the MWC tournament, possibly even the No. 2 seed. And if they can avoid a potentially bad quarterfinal loss and set up a semifinal pairing with Boise State, Colorado State or San Diego State, that would probably do the trick—win or lose in that semifinal.
Stock Up: TCU Horned Frogs
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Resume: 19-10, NET: 44, RES: 35.0, QUAL: 40.7, No. 9 Seed in Bracket Matrix
Past Four Games: L at Texas, W vs. Texas Tech, W vs. Kansas, L at Kansas
Four games ago, TCU was sitting at 17-8 with middling metrics, a few bottom-half-of-Quadrant 1 wins and a few Quadrant 2 losses. Nothing terrible. Nothing great. The Horned Frogs were my No. 36 overall seed in advance of a closing gauntlet that could have gradually brought them to the brink of elimination.
None of the potential losses would have been individually bad in the slightest. At Texas, vs. Texas Tech and two games against Kansas equals four games against the top half of Quadrant 1. But losing all four would have brought TCU to 17-12 overall with an 0-8 record against the top half of Quadrant 1. That would have had "bubble" written all over it heading into a season finale at West Virginia, where another loss might have been the final straw.
So much for that 17-13 nightmare scenario, though.
TCU finished the home game against Texas Tech on a 15-6 run to eke out a three-point win, which was, for about 72 hours, easily the best victory of the Horned Frogs' season. They then doubled the pleasure, doubled the fun with an even more convincing and even better home win over Kansas. Mike Miles went for a combined 45 points, 10 assists and seven steals in those bid-saving victories.
At this point, TCU doesn't even belong in the bubble conversation. This team is safely in the field. But we decided to allow current No. 9 seeds in the matrix into this discussion.
Stock Down: Miami Hurricanes
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Resume: 20-9, NET: 58, RES: 40.0, QUAL: 61.0, No. 11 Seed in Bracket Matrix
Past Four Games: L vs. Virginia, W at Pittsburgh, L vs. Virginia Tech, W at Boston College
If Miami had to go 2-2 over its past four games, it at least picked the correct order of operations. A loss to either Boston College (NET 165) or Pittsburgh (NET 189) would have been terrible. The badness of losing one of those games would have done more damage than the benefit that would have come from a win over Virginia or Virginia Tech.
But, you know, not losing two of those four games would have been much better for a team that already has an iffy resume.
A January road win over Duke was huge for the Hurricanes. Sweeping Wake Forest was also massive, as it just might come down to a battle between those two teams for the final spot in the field. They also won their only matchup with North Carolina. And who could have guessed back in November that a neutral-site victory over North Texas would be a Quadrant 1 result for the 'Canes?
However, is one great win and four bubble-y wins enough to make up for seven losses to non-tournament teams and NET/predictive metrics hovering around 60th?
We shall see, but adding an eighth questionable loss against Syracuse on Saturday would be a bad idea for a team that Bracket Matrix currently has projected as fourth-to-last in.
A loss to the Orange would also lock in the Hurricanes as the No. 4 seed in the ACC tournament, which would likely mean a third showdown with Wake Forest in the quarterfinals. That would be a classic "Winner gets in, loser aggressively roots against any and all bid thieves" type of bubble game.
Other Teams on the Rise
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Creighton Bluejays
Creighton lost point guard Ryan Nembhard to a season-ending wrist injury late in a recent win over St. John's, and a subsequent 21-point loss to Providence sure felt like a sign of things to come. But the Bluejays bounced back for an impressive home win over Connecticut to just about seal the deal. Creighton's metrics still aren't pretty to say the least, but five Quadrant 1 wins and no terrible losses is going to be just about impossible to keep out of the field.
Virginia Tech Hokies
It still blows my mind that we keep needing to look at Virginia Tech. The Hokies have 11 total losses, including two bad ones in Quadrant 3, and their best wins of the year were against bubble teams Miami and Notre Dame. But the predictive metrics still love the Hokies, and there's no question that their resume is improving, having won nine of their past 10 games. A road win over Clemson on Saturday would ensure Virginia Tech at least remains on the bubble radar heading into the ACC tournament.
San Diego State Aztecs
It took two overtimes on Thursday night, but by surviving against Fresno State, the Aztecs probably punched their ticket to the dance. Actually, it was the Quadrant 1 road win over Wyoming on Monday that likely sealed the deal, but not losing to the Bulldogs means SDSU remains undefeated against Quadrants 2-4. The Aztecs have ascended to 27th in the NET, and are now 27th or better in five of the six metrics. Some folks still have this team on the bubble, but that is looking more ridiculous by the day. San Diego State will be dancing.
Other Teams Fading Fast
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Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana did finally win a couple of games recently against Maryland (home) and Minnesota (road). Still, the Hoosiers are 2-6 in their past eight games, including a home game against Rutgers on Wednesday which might have been the final straw. If they don't win at Purdue on Saturday, they're going to need to do something special in the Big Ten tournament in order to secure a bid.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
After recent road losses to Wake Forest and Florida State, Notre Dame is hovering right around 50th in all of the metrics. The Fighting Irish have one great win (vs. Kentucky) and one terrible loss (at Boston College) and not a whole lot of good or bad worth mentioning in between. Notre Dame seemed to be in good shape for a No. 9 or No. 10 seed two weeks ago, but this is now more of a "classic" bubble resume for which a season-ending loss to Pittsburgh or a bad loss in the ACC tournament could mean a trip to the NIT.
Oregon Ducks
Speaking of the NIT, Oregon might as well start packing its bags for that tournament. The Ducks almost won at Arizona, almost beat USC at home and did win at home against UCLA in the past two weeks, but that merely got them back into the conversation after terrible mid-February losses to Cal and Arizona State. And now they are back out of the conversation following an 11-point loss at Washington on Thursday night. Even if they were to beat Arizona in the Pac-12 semifinals, it's probably auto bid or bust for the Ducks.
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