NBA MVP Ladder: Debunking Arguments Against Jokic, Embiid, Giannis, Steph
For the first time all season, the NBA's MVP ladder is free from any major shake-ups.
Thank the All-Star break for this infusion of consistency. (Or blame it, if you're a proponent of chaos.) So few games have been played since our last MVP chitchat that there isn't much to reasonably rethink.
This isn't to say the top five candidates are static. They're not. Chris Paul's right thumb injury will cost him six to eight weeks of action and opens the door for a new (but also old) face to enter the fold.
Still, at the risk of slogging through the same talking points without a ton of new information, this latest MVP check-in will be dedicated to debunking the primary arguments against each of the top candidates.
Some of these "well, actually" sentiments are specific to the ongoing conversation. Others are anticipatory—issues real or imagined that will invariably be used to discredit MVP credentials when splitting hairs. This exercise is not necessarily meant to ascribe weight to the presumed opposing views. It's about poking holes in them.
5. DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls
1 of 5
Previous Ranking: 6
The Biggest Argument Against DeMar DeRozan: "Ummmmm, what about Ja Morant?!? Or Luka Doncic?!? Or somebody from the Suns?!?"
DeRozan's case is rendered most vulnerable by the sheer volume of viable alternatives. Sticking him higher up this ladder is eminently possible, but he's not shouldering the two-way responsibility of a Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid or Nikola Jokic. And once you move beyond the top three, it's pretty easy to futz and fiddle with Nos. 4 through, like, 8 or 9.
Downgrading DeRozan just because the field is deep still doesn't sit right. For now.
Doncic and Morant are having similarly spectacular seasons, but DeRozan has logged 400-plus minutes more than them both—and more than anyone else on this list. Chris Paul has a case over DeRozan. I've already made it. But availability is part of this equation, and his will tank over the next few weeks. Devin Booker's credentials need a without-CP3-boost before he vaults into the top five.
Even if you're on the fence at No. 5, DeRozan's crunch-time contributions have to give him the inside track. He is shooting 53.6 percent from mid-range (15-of-28) during the final five minutes of close games, and nobody has made more overall buckets in the last minute of one-possession tilts. DeRozan also continues to lead the entire league in clutch win probability added by a hilarious margin, according to Inpredictable.
Plenty of names can genuinely be considered for this spot. DeRozan's case is, for the time being, the strongest of them all.
Honorable Mentions: 10. Trae Young, 8(T). Chris Paul/Devin Booker 7. Luka Doncic, 6. Ja Morant
4. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
2 of 5
Previous Ranking: 5
The Argument Against Stephen Curry: "Does he even ever go play well in the fourth quarter, bro?"
Anytime Curry doesn't go supernova in the fourth quarter of a Golden State Warriors loss you're bound to see someone, somewhere, portray his high-variance shooting clips into demonstrative negatives. Take the team's most recent collapse, on Sunday night against the Dallas Mavericks, in which it blew a 20-point lead during the final frame and couldn't buy a bucket for approximately eight eternities.
Never mind that Steph was on the bench for a portion of that bricklaying. He shot 2-of-8 in the fourth quarter. And it's obviously hard to win when your best player isn't automatically dominant when it matters most, right?
This is at once unoriginal and lazy thinking. Culling profound conclusions from singular performances is objectively over the top across an 82-game season, but it feels like individual misfires from Steph are magnified beyond reason and packaged as the rule rather than the exception. "He had a 2-of-8 fourth quarter once, so he's volatile" or something.
I'm not sure who needs to hear this, but Steph isn't volatile. Not even in the final frame. Among everyone who has made at least 15 appearances this season, he's sixth in fourth-quarter scoring per game. His true shooting of 59.2 is also right in line with his overall average of 59.3.
Maybe you're more inclined to lament Steph's drop in efficiency on the season. His true shooting has dipped by more than six percentage points compared to last year. Please stop caring. The level of difficulty on his attempts is both unfathomable and necessary, and he gives the Warriors offense a shape and structure and fighting chance just by virtue of stepping on the floor. More turbulent-than-usual shooting splits may hold him back when pitted against fellow MVP candidates, but make no mistake, the players to follow remain his peers.
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
3 of 5
Previous Ranking: 3
The Biggest Argument Against Giannis Antetokounmpo: "Cleveland has a better record! And look at the Milwaukee Bucks' defense!"
With the Brooklyn Nets teetering on the brink of implosion, the Bucks have long loomed as the most stable and sensible pick to come out of the Eastern Conference.
No, they aren't as reinvented or shiny as the Chicago Bulls or Miami Heat or even the James Harden-era Philadelphia 76ers. That's sort of the point. Milwaukee is more of a known quantity, a reigning champion and constant that, for all its injuries and relative shallowness, continues to smack the crap out of opponents when Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton share the floor.
Some of that sheen is starting to wear off. That happens when you've tumbled to fifth in the Eastern Conference, and when your defense has ranked 18th in points allowed per 100 possessions since Jan. 1, and when late-season additions of DeAndre' Bembry, Jevon Carter and 2022 Serge Ibaka seemingly have to matter.
To what end the Bucks should be treated as favorites to emerge from the East is beyond debatable. Giannis' individual value is not. He cannot be penalized for the Bucks' defensive regression. That's more about shaky wing depth and Brook Lopez's nearly season-long absence.
Giannis has logged more reps at center than ever, and Milwaukee's defense has survived, if not thrived, during those stretches. It ranks in the 80th percentile in points allowed per possession and inside the 90th percentile of both the frequency and efficiency with which opponents finish at the rim.
That is, unequivocally, wild. And Giannis ferries this responsibility while shouldering a superstar's offensive workload on ridiculous efficiency, replete with more expansive perimeter and passing arsenals. His is not an MVP case you can invalidate; there are only preferable alternatives.
2. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
4 of 5
Previous Ranking: 2
The Biggest Argument Against Joel Embiid: "Won't James Harden's arrival dilute his one-superstar case?"
Embiid's MVP stock wants for tenured warts. He has checked every box imaginable to date.
Glittery box-score numbers? Done. His 29.8 points per game lead the league and are paired with a personal-best 4.4 assists on the second-highest true shooting percentage of his career. That he maintains this degree of efficiency without subsisting on looks at the rim is incomprehensible.
Indispensable importance? Without question. Embiid has been the fulcrum for both the Philadelphia 76ers' offense and defense, and they're better for it. Their offensive rating improves by 7.8 points per 100 possessions with him in the lineup, and opponents are reaching the rim noticeably less with him in the middle.
Proximity to a high playoff seed? Yep. The Sixers are third in the East and just two losses back of the first-place Heat. Philly is good enough for Embiid to hold up in "best player on one of the best team" tests.
Anecdotal oomph? Lots of it. Until now.
Carrying the Sixers without Ben Simmons was not the meat and potatoes of Embiid's MVP consideration, but it played a factor. People generally gravitate toward stars propping up top-three seeds on their lonesome.
Harden's arrival threatens that layer of Embiid's appeal. It's far too late for him to cannibalize MVP votes of his own; his time in Brooklyn happened. But the addition of a "Top Five Player When He Gives a Damn" deepens Philly's supply of star power and could feasibly detract from Embiid's case.
That's the wrong way to look at it. Midseason superstar integration is difficult. Embiid and Harden have never played together. If they make their partnership work from the jump—like they have so far—it can theoretically speak to the former's adaptability. Or maybe Embiid's usage goes unchanged, in which case that only reinforces his importance, as a superstar whose status survived the arrival of another. Either way, the Harden acquisition should, at worst, have no bearing on Embiid's MVP claim.
1. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
5 of 5
Previous Ranking: 1
The Argument Against Nikola Jokic: "BuT lOoK aT tHe DeNvEr NuGgEtS' rEcOrD!"
You know this one is coming. Or that it's already here. League MVPs typically hail from really good to dominant teams. The idea of handing it to someone who doesn't spearhead a top-three seed will make select voters queasy. "Count the wins!" or whatever.
Nikola Jokic's MVP defense cannot be boiled down to the Nuggets' record. And that's true for every candidate's team. Harping on the standings is an oversimplification of anyone's case. Wins and losses are not a player stat.
It matters more that the Nuggets are in the hunt at all, despite missing their two other most important offensive players, in Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. Losing that much talent, for this long, would capsize most franchises even if they had one superstar left to bear the burden of expectations. Denver is instead more than 10 games over .500, with a not-unrealistic crack at entering the West's top four before the end of the regular season.
This isn't possible without Jokic, a singular lifeline who has done everything from captaining the offense to delivering game-winning passes and blocks to juggling a boundless workload without needing to miss time or have his minutes monitored.
Other candidates should not have their arguments neutralized just because Jokic is working with less. But that's not what this has become. Though he owns the NBA's largest net-rating swing among everyone who has tallied at least 250 minutes, the Nuggets also outpace opponents by 10.5 points per 100 possessions with him on the court.
This isn't Jokic merely making the most out of a less-than-ideal situation. This is him serving as the barrier between obscurity and potential title contention for a team that, frankly, shouldn't have any business even thinking about the latter.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering Monday's games. Salary information via Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by NBA Math's Adam Fromal.
