Bold Predictions for the Rest of the 2021-22 NBA Season
With the All-Star break wrapped and in the rearview, the 2021-22 NBA season is in the homestretch. And the last couple of months are primed for prognostication.
Who will finish first in the Eastern Conference? Who will come out on top of one of the most competitive MVP races we've seen in years? Will the Los Angeles Lakers make the playoffs?
Answers to those questions and more can be found in the following bold predictions.
But first, a word on the "bold" qualifier. The aim is to find things that seem less likely to happen than their alternatives but aren't outside the realm of possibility.
Lakers Will Miss the Playoffs
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You might see the heading to this slide and think, "This doesn't fit the definition of 'bold' that I just read."
The Lakers are four games below .500, missing Anthony Davis for the next several weeks and hanging on to an 18 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight's projection system.
The presence of LeBron James makes it hard to count L.A. out, though.
In the Lakers' final game before the All-Star break, LeBron had 33 points, eight rebounds and six assists while spearheading a small-ball lineup that beat the streaking Utah Jazz.
Occasionally, L.A. reminds us of the promise it had when Davis joined James. If both are healthy and competing for their basketball lives in the play-in tournament, it's hard to imagine they lose back-to-back games.
Thing is, the Lakers have to finish in the top eight for that leeway. If they're ninth (where they currently rank) or 10th, one loss dooms them. And the next several weeks could lock them into one of those spots.
L.A. has the toughest remaining strength of schedule in the West (and second-toughest in the NBA), and AD is out with a foot injury for at least four weeks.
This season, the Lakers are minus-4.7 points per 100 possessions when both James and Davis are off the floor. During this final stretch, rests for LeBron (or his own injuries) will doom L.A.
Jokic Will Repeat as MVP
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Nikola Jokic is the reigning MVP.
He has, by far, the NBA's largest net rating swing (the difference between a team's net points per 100 possessions when a given player is on or off the floor). He comfortably leads Basketball Reference's MVP Tracker ("based on a model built using previous voting results"). And he's posting the best single-season box plus/minus in NBA history.
(BPM "is a basketball box score-based metric that estimates a basketball player's contribution to the team when that player is on the court," according to Basketball Reference's Daniel Myers.)
While the objective case seems firmly in his favor, the narrative is leaning toward Joel Embiid.
For whatever reason—voter fatigue, the Philadelphia 76ers' much larger media market or Philly's slightly better record than the Denver Nuggets—Embiid finished first in ESPN's latest MVP straw poll and is the betting favorite on FanDuel's sportsbook.
Barring injury, the award feels like it's Embiid's to lose.
That being the case, this prediction depends an awful lot on how James Harden will fit alongside his new teammate.
If he's deferential, as he was when he first joined the Brooklyn Nets last season, Embiid's MVP case might get a boost. But even that version of Harden will take more possessions from the big man than Seth Curry, Andre Drummond and Ben Simmons were.
That will impact Embiid's individual numbers. While the potential return of Jamal Murray might do the same for Jokic, the possibility of rising up the West's standings will trump that, and Jokic's overwhelming statistical case will prevail.
Heat Will Finish 1st in the East
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Prior to the news on Chris Paul's broken right thumb, finishing first in the West felt like a foregone conclusion for the Phoenix Suns. They're on pace for 68 wins and are 6.5 games up on the second-place Golden State Warriors, so they still have a good cushion.
Even without CP3, Golden State or Memphis will have to go on a tear to catch them.
The East has far less certainty. The Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls are tied for first, and the seventh-place Toronto Raptors are only five games behind those two.
It feels like a half dozen teams have a legitimate shot to finish atop this conference, including the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have one of the league's easiest remaining schedules.
The Miami Heat get the nod because of their own soft schedule, the 2.5 games they have on the Philadelphia 76ers, Cavs and Milwaukee Bucks, and the Bulls' lingering injury issues.
Miami has its own risks on that front, but it's in decent shape now. And the Heat are 15-6 when Kyle Lowry, Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler all play. If they win at that pace from here on out, they'll be hard to catch.
Giannis Will Win His 1st Scoring Title
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DeMar DeRozan's play may make this a three-man race. Over his last seven games, he's averaging 38.6 points (yes, 38.6) while shooting 60.7 percent from the field.
But good news on Zach LaVine's knee might mean fewer shots for DeRozan, and the two players ahead of him have a good cushion:
- Joel Embiid (29.6)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (29.4)
- DeMar DeRozan (28.1)
- Trae Young (27.8)
- Luka Doncic (27.5)
That leaves the two big men, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo. While the former is putting up a whopping 33.4 points since Christmas, the latter doesn't have one of the highest-usage players in NBA history joining him after the break.
Adding James Harden doesn't guarantee tamer numbers for Embiid, but a usage percentage near 30 doesn't scream "plug and play." There will be an adjustment period, and it might result in two or three fewer looks a game for the big man.
Giannis, meanwhile, remains the same sun around which the (mostly) same stars have revolved for years. He's putting up his own gaudy numbers since Christmas (32.2 points with a 60.2 effective field-goal percentage), and Philadelphia's blockbuster trade makes Giannis' feel more sustainable.
Curry Will Shoot 40 Percent from Three
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Another one where you might think, "Uh, that's not bold."
Prior to 2021-22, Stephen Curry had shot at least 40 percent from deep in every season in which he put up at least 100 three-point attempts. Curry's 11 campaigns with 100-plus attempts and a 40-plus three-point percentage trails only Steve Nash (13) and Kyle Korver (12).
But he's put himself behind the eight ball in the challenge of tying Korver this season.
Curry's 37.9 three-point percentage puts him in 55th place in 2021-22. Players ahead of him include Kevin Porter Jr., Avery Bradley and Alec Burks.
With only 23 games left, Curry will have to go on quite a heater to keep his 40 percent streak alive.
To get there, he has to maintain his average for attempts per game, play in every remaining Warriors contest and shoot 45 percent from three the rest of the way.
He only has three seasons with a three-point percentage over 45, but 23 games at that level feels doable. Especially for the greatest shooter of all time.
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