Bowl Predictions 2021: CFP Projections Heading into Week 14

Week 13 featured plenty of shifting and movement in projections for the College Football Playoff.

With No. 2 Ohio State going down in dramatic fashion to No. 5 Michigan, No. 7 Oklahoma State ending any chance No. 10 Oklahoma could get back in the hunt and No. 3 Alabama struggling to get past a 6-6 Auburn team, there were certainly winners and losers on Thanksgiving weekend. 

It also gives us a good idea of which games are going to carry serious weight during conference championship weekend. 

The Week 14 slate is light on games but loaded with playoff and New Year's Six implications. With most teams (except Notre Dame) getting one last chance to impress the committee, here's a look at how the field could shake out and a closer look at three of the games that will carry the biggest impact on the playoff. 

CFP and New Year's 6 Projections

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Orange Bowl (CFP semifinal): No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati

Cotton Bowl (CFP semifinal): No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Utah

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Baylor

Peach Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh

Fiesta Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma

SEC Championship: Georgia vs. Alabama

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The SEC Championship Game between Georgia and Alabama is the most important one of the weekend as it's the only matchup featuring two teams that can legitimately reach the national title game. 

Regardless of what Georgia does in Atlanta, the Bulldogs should be in the field. Their defense has played at historic levels and shut down every offense they have faced. Tennessee has had the most success against them when it managed to put up 17 points in a 24-point loss. 

Since winning its season opener against Clemson 10-7, Georgia hasn't had a game that was decided by less than 17 points. 

Facing the SEC West champion Alabama Crimson Tide is its next opportunity to become one of the all-time great Georgia teams. The one knock on the Bulldogs is their lack of wins over ranked competition. They have just one such victory over a team ranked in the committee's latest Top 25. 

That will change against the Tide in the conference title game. The committee had Alabama ranked third, and the close win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl isn't likely to change that in any meaningful way. 

For Alabama, the opportunity is there to catapult itself into the playoff with a win. That would likely set up a scenario in which it takes over the No. 1 spot while Georgia gets bumped to third, allowing the committee to avoid an immediate rematch. 

It would be a tough pill to swallow for many fans to see two SEC teams in the tournament, but it would be hard to leave out a team that has been as dominant as Georgia all season or an SEC champion in Alabama. 

However, if Alabama loses, the committee would have a hard time putting Nick Saban's team in. It would then have two losses and no conference championship—two major knocks on its resume. 

Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma State vs. Baylor

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There should be a lot of viewership for this one in South Bend, Indiana. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish would receive a nice boost if the Baylor Bears can reverse the result from their previous meeting this season against the Oklahoma State Cowboys. 

If Oklahoma State can win in its first appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game, it will have a significant advantage over the teams that will likely be considered its peers.

Assuming Georgia knocks off Alabama, the committee will have a clear No. 1 in the Bulldogs. Then a Big Ten champion Michigan is likely to come in at No. 2. After all, it just soundly defeated previous No. 2 Ohio State. 

After that, the committee is likely going to have a three-way race between Cincinnati, Notre Dame and Oklahoma State. Going into Week 12, it had them ranked fourth, sixth and seventh, respectively. 

But Oklahoma State broke through in Bedlam against No. 10 Oklahoma, while Notre Dame finished out the season with a 45-14 win over 3-9 Stanford. The Cowboys are at fifth when it comes to ESPN's strength of record metric, while the Irish are sixth. That gulf would be wider with an additional win against Baylor. 

The Oklahoma State defense was particularly strong against Baylor in the first game. It held the Bears to 14 points in a 10-point victory and has been a sturdy unit all season. It did give up 33 points to the Sooners but blanked their offense in the second half to make the fourth-quarter comeback possible. 

The Baylor offense hasn't exactly inspired confidence it can do much better the second time around. It has averaged 24.6 points in its last three games against Oklahoma, Kansas State and Texas Tech. 

AAC Championship: Cincinnati vs. Houston

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Cincinnati's spot in the playoff rankings has been a topic of discussion every week. Last year, the undefeated Bearcats didn't even sniff the playoff at 9-0, and the committee even put a three-loss Florida team ahead of them. 

This season, there has been a bit more respect. They were ranked fourth in last week's standings and that was before No. 2 Ohio State went down to Michigan at the weekend. 

That has to be an encouraging sign for Luke Fickell and Cincy, but the work is not over. While the upstarts have earned some respect, they'll have the opportunity to add another win over a ranked opponent in the form of Houston. 

The conference championship game has been a tricky hurdle for Cincinnati under Fickell. Last season, it failed to win with style in its last chance to impress the committee. The Bearcats kicked a field goal as time expired to top the Tulsa Golden Hurricane 27-24. 

The 2019 game saw them lose 29-24 to the Memphis Tigers. 

And a dominant win over Houston is far from guaranteed. Dana Holgorsen's squad has ripped off 11 wins since losing its season opener to Texas Tech. 

The Cougars have an explosive offense and a defense that is only allowing 4.6 yards per play (10th in the country). An upset would put Cincinnati out of the playoff and likely put Houston in a New Year's Six bowl. 

That, combined with Oklahoma State and Alabama losses, could really send the committee into a tailspin. 

Buckle up: Week 14 is going to be fun.