College Football Odds Week 13: Over-Under, Picks Against the Spread for Top 25

Alex Ballentine@Ballentine_AlexFeatured ColumnistNovember 25, 2021

College Football Odds Week 13: Over-Under, Picks Against the Spread for Top 25

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    With just two weeks left before the College Football Playoff selection committee finalizes the four-team field and picks the rest of the New Year's Six bowls, time is running out for teams to make their final arguments.

    Week 13 is chock full of good, meaningful matchups in the Top 25. In particular, two classic rivalry games figure to feature prominently over the weekend in The Game between Ohio State and Michigan and Bedlam where Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will clash in the Big 12.

    Both games have serious playoff implications on the line. The winner of Ohio State-Michigan will have the inside track on a berth with a win in the Big Ten title game.

    The inter-state rivalry between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State is a playoff eliminator. The loser will officially be out of the race while the winner could have a strong case for the fourth spot with a win in their conference championship game.

    Either way, the weekend is going to have a huge impact on the bowl picture, and there are plenty of lines and over-unders worth putting a friendly wager on.

Top 25 Schedule, Odds and Predictions

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    Thursday, November 25

    No. 8 Ole Miss at Mississippi State (-1) (62, Under) (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

                

    Friday, November 26

    Boise State (-2.5) at No. 22 San Diego State (44.5, Over) (noon ET, CBS)

    No. 17 Iowa (-1.5) at Nebraska (41, Over) (1:30 p.m. ET, BTN)

    No. 4 Cincinnati (-14) at East Carolina (57, Under) (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

    Missouri at No. 25 Arkansas (-14.5) (62.5, Over) (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

    Colorado at No. 16 Utah (-24) (52.5, Under) (4 p.m. ET, Fox)

    North Carolina at No. 24 NC State (-6) (62.5, Under) (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)

                

    Saturday, November 27

    No. 1 Georgia (-35) at Georgia Tech (54.5, Over) (noon ET, ABC)

    No. 2 Ohio State (-8) at No. 6 Michigan (64.5, Over) (noon ET, Fox)

    Texas Tech at No. 9 Baylor (-14) (52, Over) (noon ET, FS1)

    No. 19 Houston (-32) at UConn (56, Over) (noon ET, CBSSN)

    No. 21 Wake Forest (-4.5) at Boston College (64, Over) (noon ET, ESPN2)

    No. 15 UTSA (-10.5) at North Texas (59.5, Under) (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

    No. 3 Alabama (-19.5) at Auburn (56, Over) (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

    Oregon State at No. 11 Oregon (-7) (61, Under) (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

    Penn State (-2) at No. 12 Michigan State  (52, Under) (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

    No. 18 Wisconsin (-7) at Minnesota (39, Over) (4 p.m. ET, BTN)

    No. 14 Texas A&M (-6.5) at LSU (46, Over) (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)

    No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Oklahoma State (-4) (50.5, Over) (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

    No. 20 Pittsburgh (-13) at Syracuse (58.5, Over) (7:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network)

    No. 5 Notre Dame (-20.5) at Stanford (52.5, Over) (8 p.m. ET, Fox)

    No. 13 BYU (-7) at USC (64.5, Under) (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

    All rankings based on AP Top 25 release. 

    Predictions against the spread in bold. Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Egg Bowl Under

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    Thanksgiving means turkey, stuffing and, hopefully, a golden egg for Ole Miss and Mississippi State fans.

    The odds on this year's egg bowl are surprisingly tight with the Mississippi State Bulldogs a surprise one-point favorite over the No. 8 ranked Ole Miss Rebels.

    That's a reflection of how well Mississippi State is playing of late. It's won four of its past five games including an impressive 31-17 win over Kentucky and a 43-34 win over Auburn on the road.

    Ole Miss has also won four of its last five but lost to a common opponent in Auburn.

    The winner of the game could come down to a coin flip, but the real value on this one might come in the over-under. On paper, it's easy to assume the over will hit based on the Rebels bringing Matt Corral and Lane Kiffin's offense to the table while the Bulldogs have been adept at running Mike Leach's Air Raid system.

    But there's a reason to like the under here. According to TeamRankings, the under has hit in each of the last six Rebels games. The over has hit for the Bulldogs in the last four games, but the book seems to have adjusted giving them their highest total.

    Neither team has been the greatest at converting in the red zone this season. The Rebels are 102nd in red-zone scoring percentage, while the Bulldogs are good but not great at 40th.

    The Thanksgiving night game should be a close one, but the defenses could surprise here.

Ohio State Covers Against Michigan

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    It's hard to pick Michigan to beat Ohio State until we see it. It's been 10 years since the Wolverines got the better of the Buckeyes.

    Michigan hasn't beaten its chief rival since 2011 when Brady Hoke led Michigan to a win in The Game in his first season as head coach. For reference, Russell Wilson led the nation in passing efficiency at Wisconsin that season.

    This year's Michigan team might be the most equipped to take down the Buckeyes, and the odds are stacked against them.

    That's because the Ohio State offense is starting to click at maximum capacity, and the defense has jelled after early-season woes. Both units were firing on all cylinders in Ohio State's 56-7 win over Michigan State.

    That's the same Michigan State that Michigan lost to just four weeks ago. The common opponent argument isn't necessarily strong. But when there are six common opponents and Ohio State had a greater margin of victory in all six of those instances, it begins to look convincing.

    The Buckeyes have too much momentum, and Harbaugh hasn't been able to close the gap between the two programs.

Oklahoma State Covers Against Oklahoma

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    The Oklahoma Sooners have had a death grip on the Big 12 championship. You have to go back to 2014 to find a season in which they didn't win it.

    That also happens to be the last time Oklahoma State beat the Sooners. Both streaks could come to a similar end in 2021 as Oklahoma will need to beat the Cowboys to get to the Big 12 title game, assuming Baylor is able to beat 6-5 Texas Tech.

    The Sooners come in as slight underdogs to a red-hot Oklahoma State team that has one of the best defenses in the country. The Cowboys are second in points allowed per game and third in yards per play.

    That makes them the best defense the Sooners have seen all season. The only comparable defense they have seen has been the Baylor unit coached by Dave Aranda. That didn't go well for the Sooners as the Bears beat them 27-14.

    Since then, the Sooners have only beaten Kansas State 20-10. That's not exactly an offensive explosion. Lincoln Riley's crew has slowed down on offense just in time to play an Oklahoma State defense that is flying around and playing well.

            

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