
College Football Playoff 2021: Rankings and Reaction from Week 12 Poll
The top seven teams in the latest College Football Playoff rankings did not change, but the debate surrounding the order raged on for another week.
Last week's decision to place the Michigan Wolverines over the Michigan State Spartans received more questions, and selection committee chair Gary Barta did his best to confuse us more instead of provide additional insight on the decision.
Barta broke down the decision to reporters after Tuesday's release, per The Athletic's Stewart Mandel: "Set aside watching the games, though that’s certainly a part of it. But statistically in just about every category, offensively and defensively, Michigan comes out on top over Michigan State."
Barta's remarks on the Cincinnati Bearcats were a bit clearer, as he confirmed the Group of Five side is a solid No. 5, per Sports Illustrated's Ross Dellenger.
"It's rock-solid at No. 5. Great discussion about Cincy and Michigan and where to place those two. The win at Notre Dame, the committee values that. There is not a degree of closeness (between UM and UC)," Barta said.
Although there is some confusion about where certain teams lie in the top seven, the games over the next few weeks should provide more on-field clarity to what the potential final four will look like.
College Football Playoff Rankings
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1. Georgia (10-0)
2. Alabama (9-1)
3. Oregon (9-1)
4. Ohio State (9-1)
5. Cincinnati (10-0)
6. Michigan (9-1)
7. Michigan State (9-1)
8. Notre Dame (9-1)
9. Oklahoma State (9-1)
10. Wake Forest (9-1)
11. Baylor (8-2)
12. Ole Miss (8-2)
13. Oklahoma (9-1)
14. BYU (8-2)
15. Wisconsin (7-3)
16. Texas A&M (7-3)
17. Iowa (8-2)
18. Pittsburgh (8-2)
19. San Diego State (9-1)
20. NC State (7-3)
21. Arkansas (7-3)
22. UTSA (10-0)
23. Utah (7-3)
24. Houston (9-1)
25. Mississippi State (6-4)
Michigan Ahead of Michigan State for 2nd Week
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All you have to do is look at some basic statistics to disprove Barta's comments on how far apart the two Michigan Big Ten schools are.
Michigan State averages more total yards per game than Michigan, and there is one-tenth of a difference between the two sides in points per game.
In fact, the Spartans outscored the Wolverines in Week 11, and they have put up over 40 points on three occasions this season, while Michigan hit that mark twice. Both of those occurrences for Michigan took place during nonconference play in September.
Michigan certainly has the edge in the defensive stats, as it ranks in the top 10 in yards and points conceded per game.
Michigan State found a way to put up 37 points on one of the best defensive units in the county, and we thought that carried influence on the playoff rankings.
The better excuse for dropping Michigan State below Michigan is that the Spartans have the worst loss of the two programs.
Mel Tucker's team gave up 40 points to a then-unranked Purdue Boilermakers team, while Michigan lost in East Lansing to the Spartans.
That logic still is not great, but it would at least be better than what Barta threw out during his media availability on Tuesday.
The Michigan-Michigan State debate will not matter in a few weeks because both teams still have to play the Ohio State Buckeyes. Only one of those three programs will emerge as the Big Ten East champion.
Whichever one of those three teams makes the Big Ten Championship Game will have a chance to play for a playoff berth while gaining a Top 25 win. The Wisconsin Badgers enter Week 12 as the Big Ten West leader.
Cincinnati in Good Shape at No. 5
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The Cincinnati Bearcats should be the biggest fan of the team they would likely meet in the national semifinal.
If the Georgia Bulldogs win out, that would clear the potential of having two SEC teams in the final four. The Alabama Crimson Tide would have two losses in the situation.
Cincinnati is sitting in a solid spot at No. 5, and it could benefit from the big games in the Big Ten East over the next few weeks as well.
The Bearcats are not in the clear in regards to their own schedule, but their defense has the potential to shut down both the SMU Mustangs and Houston Cougars, their two toughest opponents left. Cincinnati plays SMU on Saturday and will likely face Houston in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game.
Cincinnati allows the sixth-fewest points per game in the FBS, and it ranks 13th in total yards conceded per game.
SMU's defense has been leaky at best in the last few weeks. The Mustangs have not held a team beneath 20 points since October 2.
Houston, who beat SMU 44-37, is in a similar spot as the Mustangs defensively. The Cougars held two opponents below 20 points since the start of October.
Cincinnati has a far better defense than both programs. It should come up with the necessary stops in both games—and in the November 26 clash with the East Carolina Pirates—to finish the season with an undefeated mark.
A strong finish combined with the expected losses of teams around Cincinnati should put it in the playoffs by the time the final rankings come out.
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