Way-Too-Soon 2021 NBA Re-Draft: A New No. 1 Pick in Our Do-over
Though the 2021-22 NBA season is only one month old, opinions on certain rookies have changed.
One specifically has made such a strong impression that a re-draft might lead to a different No. 1 overall pick.
This year's rookies are off to a promising start. Those who slipped in this exercise mostly fell due to others outperforming expectations, not their own alarming play.
1. Detroit Pistons: Evan Mobley (USC, PF/C)
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Original pick: No. 3
There was always a belief that Evan Mobley had a chance to be the top prospect in the 2021 draft class.
His thin frame and small sample size of shooting suggested he was riskier than Cade Cunningham, whose creation, takeover shot-making skills and passing felt safer and fit a more enticing archetype. But by finishing at a 73.6 percent clip in the restricted area, making threes (eight in 15 games) and thriving at the 4, Mobley has immediately squashed the few concerns that could have prevented him from reaching superstar levels.
Meanwhile, there were questions about whether the USC flash plays of pull-ups, face-up drives and ball-handling would carry over. They have during his first month as a pro.
Aside from his scoring versatility translating so quickly, Mobley already looks like one of the league's most special defensive weapons. After finishing last season ranked 25th in defensive efficiency, the Cleveland Cavaliers are seventh this season, in part due to their addition of Mobley.
Cunningham may eventually live up to expectations, but in a redraft, the Detroit Pistons couldn't afford to pass on the new certainty about Mobley's special two-way impact.
2. Houston Rockets: Cade Cunningham (Oklahoma State, PG/SG)
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Original pick: No. 1
No serious alarms have sounded on Jalen Green, but Cade Cunningham's passing and defensive tools/IQ still give him an edge.
Starting to look more comfortable after getting a late start due to an ankle injury, Cunningham remains more attractive long term as a 6'6", 220-pound initiator with combo-guard versatility and standout basketball IQ at both ends.
He's also more of a playmaker than Green, which should be a selling point to a Houston Rockets franchise that's operating without a real point guard.
It isn't worth picking apart Cunningham's eight-game sample size given his lack of preparation time and the likelihood that he's a better shooter than early numbers suggest. Signs still point to a mismatch ball-handler who can control a game, take over with self-creation and shot-making and make teammates better with quick processing.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers: Scottie Barnes (Florida State, SF/PF)
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Original pick: No. 4
The Cleveland Cavaliers wouldn't be happy about having to re-draft, but they'd still come out winners and tougher by adding Scottie Barnes.
Every scout praised Barnes' defense, passing and intangibles before the draft, but few self-creation and shooting flashes hinted at a limited NBA scorer. Instead, he's leading all rookies with 16.3 points per game while also providing the defensive pressure, IQ plays and vocal energy that fueled his identity at Florida State.
We're looking at Barnes' floor, which shows an interchangeable forward who can initiate fast breaks, play-make at 6'7", use his 7'3" wingspan for finishing, hit shots around the key and pick up opposing guards full court. What will he look like if he adds more shooting range and shot-making versatility?
Even though he was the No. 4 pick originally, Barnes appears to offer more upside than initially thought. Although he can improve upon certain offensive skills, he's still putting up major numbers right away.
The Cavaliers would use Barnes in the same role that they have Evan Mobley thriving in right now.
4. Toronto Raptors: Jalen Green (G League Ignite, SG)
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Original pick: No. 2
Jalen Green slips in this re-draft, mostly because of how unique, impactful and convincing Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes already look.
The Toronto Raptors might prefer to stick with the original draft's results, but they'd still take Green and the enormous scoring potential that's powered by outrageous quickness, burst, shot-creation skill and shot-making.
Despite inconsistency—which should be expected for a top option on a Houston Rockets team that's missing a true point guard—Green is still regularly executing off elite athleticism and his ability to separate and shoot with range off the dribble or catch. He has a 30-point effort on his resume, plus 26 threes in 14 games. He's also flashed some playmaking and live-dribble passing when handling the ball.
Green figures to go through the same choppy process as Anthony Edwards, who took time to read defenses and pick his spots before emerging as a top NBA scorer in the second half of his rookie season.
5. Orlando Magic: Jonathan Kuminga (G League Ignite, F/C)
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Original pick: No. 7
Cole Anthony's breakout reduces the urgency for the Orlando Magic to draft another point guard. Instead of staying with Jalen Suggs, who has struggled early, they could buy Jonathan Kuminga's early flashes of power, skill and defense with the Golden State Warriors.
Kuminga's upside was obvious coming out of high school. The question was whether he could reach it by improving his shooting, decision-making and level of engagement.
So far, he's playing to his strengths as a transition weapon and downhill driver while moving the ball and locking in defensively.
Chuma Okeke has struggled this season, and Jonathan Isaac's injury history remains a concern. The Magic should be thrilled with what they've seen from Franz Wagner, but Kuminga's strength, explosiveness, shot-making potential, attacking ability and defensive tools could be too enticing to pass up at No. 5.
6. Oklahoma City Thunder: Franz Wagner (Michigan, SF/PF)
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Original pick: No. 8
Though the Oklahoma City Thunder must feel good about Josh Giddey, it's worth questioning whether he has enough burst and shooting skills to score at a high level. Since they already have a star guard in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder could take Franz Wagner in this re-draft to improve their frontcourt.
Averaging 13.4 points while shooting 37.1 percent from three, he's been one of the most impactful rookies at 20 years old. A 6'9" forward with guard skills and the ability to defend wings, Wagner is also in the process of proving that his jumper is better than the college numbers said.
It's a key development given how effective he is scoring off the ball by slashing and cutting with his size and athleticism. But Wagner has also flashed off-the-dribble passing skill and high IQ.
He's already a dependable, two-way role player at his floor, and there is still plenty more upside to reach with improved self-creation and pull-up shooting.
7. Golden State Warriors: Josh Giddey (Adelaide 36ers, PG/SG)
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Original pick: No. 6
Josh Giddey falls one spot to the Golden State Warriors, a team that would value his passing and decision-making in a connector role.
Averaging 6.2 assists and 6.6 boards, the 6'8" ball-handler has demonstrated unique vision and instincts for his height.
Shooting remains an obvious swing skill given his lack of burst to blow by or finish at the rim. Giddey does have 11 three-point makes in 13 games, although he seems unlikely to provide much scoring in the short term.
Until then, facilitating and making teammates better will continue to drive his value. In Golden State, he'd help take pressure off Stephen Curry and play to his strengths as a ball-mover and quick processor.
8. Orlando Magic: James Bouknight (Connecticut, SG)
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Original pick: No. 11
The Orlando Magic would go off pre-draft scouting reports to select James Bouknight, who'd give their lineup a more advanced shot-creator and shot-maker than original No. 5 overall pick Jalen Suggs.
Bouknight just provided a taste of the firepower he could offer during his G League debut, when he went off for 33 points.
He'd come with more perceived risk compared to Davion Mitchell or Chris Duarte, both of whom have already proved they can produce at the NBA level. But Bouknight is over two years younger than both, and his mix of advanced one-on-one skill, off-the-dribble shooting and explosiveness gives him second-option scoring potential.
9. Sacramento Kings: Alperen Sengun (Besiktas, C)
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Original pick: No. 16
Re-drafting Davion Mitchell wouldn't be the worst idea, but the Sacramento Kings will have a tough time maximizing his potential as long as De'Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton are both on their roster. They should see at least equal upside and more use for Alperen Sengun, who's producing at 19 years with improving, modern skills that most Kings big men lack.
Richaun Holmes is a valuable asset and keeper, but Sengun would give the lineup a more creative scorer to feature in the half court, as well as a plus-passer and likely eventual shooter.
Averaging 9.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.4 steals and 0.6 blocks in only 19.3 minutes, Sengun has been one of the most productive rookies despite the Rockets' poor point guard play and spacing. His inside game and presence from Turkey have carried over, and his occasional face-up moves, shooting (six threes) and vision continue to flash in Houston.
10. Memphis Grizzlies: Jalen Suggs (Gonzaga, PG)
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Original pick: No. 5
Jalen Suggs has become vulnerable to slipping in a re-draft thanks to Cole Anthony's emergence for the Orlando Magic, promising flashes from Jonathan Kuminga and the Sacramento Kings opting for a big over another guard.
The Memphis Grizzlies might be thrilled to buy low this late on a strong, athletic ball-handler who can pass and defend. His ball-handling and shooting issues are improvable, though he could still provide playmaking and rim pressure without sharp creation skill or a reliable jumper.
Suggs was one of college hoops' most efficient pull-up threats, so there is reason to believe his shot will eventually start falling. In the meantime, he may be better suited for an energy or spark role off Memphis' bench behind Ja Morant.
11. Charlotte Hornets: Davion Mitchell (Baylor, PG/SG)
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Original pick: No. 9
Unsurprisingly, Davion Mitchell has made noise with his defensive pressure, a signature strength that will continue to separate him from most at his position.
Offensively, his shot hasn't fallen like it did last season at Baylor. But his burst off hesitation appears just as explosive in the NBA as it did in college.
While his scoring looks slower to translate, he's still flashed promising glimpses of a savvy pick-and-roll operator in terms of changing speeds, setting up teammates or earning layups.
Just like he has for the Sacramento Kings, Mitchell would serve as a two-way playmaker off the bench in Charlotte.
12. San Antonio Spurs: Chris Duarte (Oregon, SG)
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Original pick: No. 13
NBA-ready was an accurate way to see Chris Duarte. The question was and still is how much room the 24-year-old has to develop from here.
At No. 12, it isn't worth nitpicking about upside. Duarte could help the San Antonio Spurs both now and in the future with his confident shot-making and flashes of self-creation for ball-screen or isolation scoring.
As a rookie, he's averaging 14.3 points while shooting 40.3 percent from three. He's already a starting NBA 2-guard. But he also wouldn't be the first player to improve in the pros at his age.
Given the growth that Duarte has shown coming from junior college to Oregon and now the Indiana Pacers, it seems worth betting on his potential trajectory.
13. Indiana Pacers: Nah'Shon Hyland (VCU, PG/SG)
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Original pick: No. 26
From summer league (19.8 points) to the preseason (15.2 points) and now regular-season games, Bones Hyland has continually outplayed his draft position.
Questions about size or athleticism aren't alarming anymore. He's immediately earned a bench role with the Denver Nuggets by providing instant offense with his crafty ball-handling, shot-making versatility and range. He's even looked capable of playing point guard minutes and playmaking for teammates.
While VCU relied on Hyland as a scorer, he's demonstrated promising feel as a facilitator in different settings since the draft. With Duarte off the board, the Pacers could take him to provide the same punch of complementary scoring, shooting and creation.
14. Golden State Warriors: Trey Murphy III (Virginia, SF/PF)
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Original pick: No. 17
The Golden State Warriors could take Moses Moody again, but they may also value the certainty in Trey Murphy III's shooting.
He shot over 40 percent from three in college, summer league and preseason, and he's hit 20 threes in 15 regular-season games despite playing limited minutes for the New Orleans Pelicans.
Murphy may offer limited creation and defensive upside. But at 6'8", his ability to shot-make and space the floor seems guaranteed to translate anywhere, and a contender with established scoring weapons should covet that.
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