Grading Every NBA Rookie Extension at the Deadline + the No-Deal List
The NBA's rookie-scale extension deadline passed Monday with a glaring omission. Fresh off a trip to the NBA Finals, the Phoenix Suns chose not to reward center Deandre Ayton with a deal. Instead, they will let the player they drafted ahead of Luka Doncic and Trae Young in 2018 hit restricted free agency in 2022.
Ayton, who averaged 15.8 points, 11.8 rebounds and, perhaps most importantly, 36.4 minutes per game through the playoffs, is arguably the best young two-way center in the league. In June, multiple NBA insiders told Bleacher Report that Ayton is "worth the max."
If he is, the Suns obviously disagree. Ayton wasn't going to accept less, so he'll test the market next July.
But few teams will have spending power under the salary cap in 2022. Just a handful will have enough to make a lucrative offer (others may make trades to get into salary-cap position to chase Ayton). Regardless, the Suns will have the right of first refusal with Ayton restricted.
The max for Ayton on a five-year contract from the Suns next summer could reach $172.3 million over five years (on a standard maximum contract). The most a competitor can offer projects to be $127.9 million over four years.
The Suns could force Ayton to seek an offer sheet at the lower amount and decide to keep him at a relative discount. Or Ayton could choose to re-sign for one year on a $16.4 million qualifying offer to explore unrestricted free agency in 2023.
Another possibility is sign-and-trade next summer, although that too is a complicated path.
But going into the season, the Suns re-signed Chris Paul, have Devin Booker on a long-term deal and reached extensions with Mikal Bridges and Landry Shamet on Monday. Ayton is on the outside looking in, possibly insulted by the team's decision.
Phoenix may be concerned with luxury taxes, but the choice to hold off on paying Ayton may damage the chemistry for a team that fell two wins short of a title.
But back to the topic at hand: The following is a list of the 11 rookie-scale extensions for the 2018 draft class.
No. 3 Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks: 5 Years, ~$207 Million
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What needs to be said about the Mavericks paying Doncic? He's one of the NBA's brightest young stars. He qualified for the higher maximum with his All-NBA First Team honors in 2019-20 and 2020-21.
The Mavericks couldn't wait to pay him as much as they possibly could, including 50 percent of his contract paid upfront each season, a player option in 2026-27 and a 15 percent trade kicker.
Grade: Easy A
No. 4 Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies: 4 Years, $104.7 Million
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Per ESPN's Bobby Marks, Jackson will earn just under the projected max for next season at $28.9 million, with his salary descending each year by about $1.8 million.
Jackson is extremely talented, best demonstrated in his sophomore season when he averaged 17.4 points per game as a 6'11" big who shot 39.4 percent from three-point range. Unfortunately, he suffered a significant knee injury in August 2020 that limited him to just 16 games last season (including playoffs). Understandably, he wasn't nearly as productive, but the Grizzlies are betting that he will return to form.
Jackson didn't get the max and wasn't named a designated player for a five-year deal like Doncic (and Trae Young), but he's well-compensated at $26.2 million per season. A fair compromise.
Grade: B
No. 5 Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks: 5 Years, $172-$207 Million
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Young will be tied forever to Doncic. The two were drafted and then traded for each other, with Dallas moving up two slots via Atlanta. Young doesn't get quite the same acclaim as Doncic but can boast two playoff series wins to nil.
Doncic is a two-time All-Star, and while Young got the nod in 2019-20, he was somehow left off the Eastern Conference squad in 2020-21—the same year he led Atlanta to the Conference Finals.
Young's exact extension won't be clear until after the season. If he wins Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year or gets an All-NBA First, Second or Third Team nod, his contract will jump to $207 million.
Additionally, Young will get 35 percent of his salary in advance each season, has a player option in the final season and a 15 percent trade kicker. The Hawks are back on the NBA map, and Young is a significant reason why.
Grade: A
No. 7 Wendell Carter Jr., Orlando Magic: 4 Years, $50 Million
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Per Shams Charania of The Athletic, Carter and the Magic agreed to a four-year, fully guaranteed $50 million deal before Monday's deadline. Carter, initially drafted by the Chicago Bulls, came over to Orlando in the Nikola Vucevic swap.
In 22 games with the Magic last season, Carter averaged 11.7 points and 8.8 rebounds in 26.5 minutes per game. Next season's non-taxpayer mid-level exception projects to be around $10.1 million (up to four years, $43.4 million). That's likely the benchmark both sides wanted to beat out, by about $1.65 million per season.
Carter will compete for minutes with classmate Mo Bamba (No. 6), who did not reach an extension. The Magic also expect to have Jonathan Isaac back from a knee injury in the next month or two. It's unclear how it all fits together.
Given the shortage of free-agent money next summer, Orlando could have waited. That said, if Carter blows up, this could prove to be one of the better extensions on the list.
Grade: B-
No. 10 Mikal Bridges, Phoenix Suns: 4 Years, $90 Million
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The Suns rewarded Bridges for his improved play that helped the team become an NBA Finals contender. In a vacuum, that's an easy decision. Why Ayton wasn't also given the same respect is a bit perplexing.
The price for Bridges was obvious. As we reported in June, "Bridges won't be cheap, with his next contract likely to be higher than the $20 million a year Jerami Grant got with the Detroit Pistons."
Like with Grant, the going rate for starting-level wings is in the $17-$20 mil range annually (Evan Fournier, Norman Powell, Gary Trent Jr.). Bridges is on the high end of that at $22.5 million, but not outrageously so.
Grade: B
No. 11 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Oklahoma City Thunder: 5 Years, $172-$207 Million
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Gilgeous-Alexander is very, very good. He averaged 23.7 points and 5.9 assists for the Thunder—1.6 points and 3.5 assists fewer than Young in Atlanta but with better shooting percentages. The contract is rich, especially for a team that seems a long way from contention, but that's likely the price the franchise needed to pay to get Gilgeous-Alexander to commit through the rebuild.
Like Young, Gilgeous-Alexander needs to earn Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year or an All-NBA nod to trigger the higher extension. More likely, he'll make $172 million with a 15 percent trade kicker and no player option.
Grade: B+
No. 14 Michael Porter Jr., Denver Nuggets: 5 Years, $172-$207 Million
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While Gilgeous-Alexander is the star in Oklahoma City's developing core, Porter Jr. is a key role player on a contender in Denver. Playing off All-Star center Nikola Jokic, Porter is an essential piece for a team that believes it is one of the best franchises in the Western Conference.
Like with Doncic, Young and Gilgeous-Alexander, Porter could earn above $172 million, though his contract could jump to $193.3 million or as high as $207 million based on which awards he earns this season (if any). Only $12 million of Porter's contract is guaranteed in the final year, with incentives like All-Star, a championship, etc.
While Bridges in Phoenix is a better defender than Porter, players tend to get paid a premium for their ability to score. Bridges is very well paid for his 13.5 points per game; Porter was paid more handsomely after averaging 19 per game last season.
Grade: B
No. 19 Kevin Huerter, Atlanta Hawks: 4 Years, $65 Million
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The Hawks rewarded their players for their run to the Conference Finals. In addition to Young and Huerter's extension, the team paid John Collins in free agency and gave Clint Capela a veteran extension.
Huerter's deal, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN, came in before the deadline at an average of $16.3 million per season. The Hawks are paying Huerter just below that range for wings such as Fournier, Powell and Trent Jr. The lower number reflects his modest scoring average of 11.9 points per game.
While Huerter may have struggled to get more than the mid-level given the scarcity of funds in next year's market, the Hawks preferred to invest now to build upon last year's success. Beating a dead horse here, but basically the opposite of what the Suns chose to do with Ayton.
Grade: B
No. 21 Grayson Allen, Milwaukee Bucks: 2 Years, $20 Million
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Per Wojnarowski, the Bucks gave Allen a short deal. It's not a bad contract, but Allen isn't as good as teammate Donte DiVincenzo (who didn't get an extension, coming off an ankle injury). It's not entirely clear why the Bucks are paying Allen $10 million per season when they also have Pat Connaughton and Khris Middleton.
Perhaps the team envisions a bigger role for Allen in the rotation, and maybe they would have been outpriced (especially in years this offseason). It's an adequate deal; it's just not exciting. And if the Bucks stay above the luxury tax, $10 million to Allen could balloon pretty quickly to $30-40 million.
Grade: C
No. 26 Landry Shamet, Phoenix Suns: 4 Years, $43 Million
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To add insult to injury, the Suns paid Shamet (who they acquired from the Brooklyn Nets over the offseason) $10.8 million per year, per Wojnarowski.
The instant reaction to Bleacher Report from an NBA source: "Any time you can not sign a No. 1 pick and franchise center and instead overpay a fourth-guard type, you gotta jump on that opportunity."
Shamet got paid, sight unseen (relatively speaking, given he hasn't played through the postseason with the Suns), yet Ayton has to go through restricted free agency?
Not that Shamet is a bad player—he's a solid complementary shooter for a team with stars like the Suns. It's just a bit perplexing, given the context.
Grade: C
No. 27 Robert Williams III, Boston Celtics: 4 Years, $54 Million
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The Celtics believe they have an emerging athletic defensive presence in Williams. He signed his extension back in August, a deal that is $48 million guaranteed, with $6 million in incentives ($1.5 million per season).
Williams has an established role on a playoff team, whereas Carter and the Magic are still searching for their identity. If Williams struggles to live up to his contract, he'll earn slightly less than Carter. If he hits his incentives, he'll be rewarded in kind.
Grade: B
The 'No Deal' List
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Not every player in the 2018 draft class was rewarded with an extension. The most notable was Ayton, but Collin Sexton stands out given his 24.3 points and 4.4 assists per game for the Cleveland Cavaliers last season.
The "have-to-wait" list includes:
Deandre Ayton (No. 1) - Suns
Marvin Bagley III (No. 2) - Kings
Mo Bamba (No. 6) - Magic
Collin Sexton (No. 8) - Cavaliers
Kevin Knox (No. 9) - Knicks
Miles Bridges (No. 12) - Hornets
Troy Brown Jr. (No. 15) - Bulls
Donte DiVincenzo (No. 17) - Bucks
Lonnie Walker (No. 18) - Spurs
Josh Okogie (No. 20) - Timberwolves
Aaron Holiday (No. 23) - Wizards
Anfernee Simons (No. 24) - Trail Blazers
The remaining top-30 picks from 2018 aren't currently in the NBA: Jerome Robinson (No. 13), Zhaire Smith (No. 16), Jacob Evans (No. 28), Dzanan Musa (No. 29) and Omari Spellman (No. 30). Chandler Hutchison (No. 22) wasn't eligible for an extension, as he's currently on a two-way contract with the Suns. Similarly, Mo Wagner (No. 25) is on a minimum contract with the Magic, who recently drafted his brother Franz Wagner (No. 8 in 2021).
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter, @EricPincus.
