Stock Up, Stock Down on College Football Playoff Hopefuls
With seven weeks down and seven weeks yet to come before Selection Sunday, we've reached the mid-point of the 2021 college football season.
And, to put it lightly, the vast majority of preseason College Football Playoff projections aren't looking so great.
Eleven of the top 17 teams in the preseason AP poll have already suffered multiple losses, and both Alabama and Ohio State—who met in last year's national championship and who opened this season ranked in the Top Four—were both on the outside looking in at College Football Playoff projections heading into Week 7.
Iowa's loss to Purdue kicked the door wide-open for one of them to get back into the mix, but, seriously, who could have guessed two months ago that Iowa losing to Purdue would matter in the slightest for playoff projections? Just a microcosm of what has been a wild ride thus far.
Before we dive headlong into the second half of the season, we wanted to take a moment to reflect on which College Football Playoff hopefuls—both preseason hopefuls and current hopefuls apply here—have had the biggest deviations from expectations through seven weeks.
For each of our nine featured teams, we'll start by taking a look back at what both College Football News and Athlon Sports had to say about these teams and where they landed in those sites' preseason rankings of all 130 teams. And then we'll try to figure out why each of those teams has so drastically exceeded expectations or underperformed.
Stock Up: Cincinnati Bearcats
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What They Said in the Preseason
"It's asking a bit much to win both the dates in Indiana—it'll probably win one, though—and expect there to be one wrong-day-right-opponent-performance against someone in the AAC." - College Football News (ranked 25th)
"With a veteran and loaded roster, along with road games versus top-25 teams in Indiana and Notre Dame, Cincinnati will have a chance to state its case for the four-team playoff." - Athlon Sports (ranked 8th)
What Happened?
There have been two multipronged surprises that have propelled Cincinnati into a legitimate candidate for the College Football Playoff.
First and foremost, the Bearcats won both of the road games against Indiana and Notre Dame by double digits. Neither of those Hoosier State programs has been quite as good as was expected in the preseason, but the Irish were No. 9 in the preseason AP poll while Indiana was No. 17. Those two wins over Power Five programs were no minor achievement.
Meanwhile, the rest of the AP Top 10 has sputtered through a minefield. No. 1 Alabama, No. 4 Ohio State and No. 9 Notre Dame have each lost once. No. 3 Clemson, No. 6 Texas A&M, No. 7 Iowa State and No. 10 North Carolina have each lost multiple times. The only preseason Top 17 teams still undefeated are Georgia, Oklahoma and Cincinnati.
That isn't to say the Bearcats in the CFP mix is purely a "process of elimination" situation. Cincinnati is clearly a very good team. Jerome Ford is one of the most productive running backs in the country, dual-threat quarterback Desmond Ridder is a legitimate Heisman candidate, and this defense would be getting a lot more national recognition were it not for Georgia and Iowa dominating that conversation.
But Cincinnati needed some things to break its way in order to seriously have a chance. So far, so good.
Stock Down: Clemson Tigers
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What They Said in the Preseason
"With yet another amazing team and this schedule, you'll remember where you were when it plays in yet another College Football Playoff." - College Football News (ranked 3rd)
"Clemson has led the ACC in scoring for three consecutive years, and all of the pieces are in place to own one of the nation's top offenses once again." - Athlon Sports (ranked 2nd)
What Happened?
Plain and simple, the offense stinks, averaging a woeful 14.8 points against FBS opponents.
There were concerns in the preseason that, oh, well, maybe Clemson won't be elite on offense if Justyn Ross is limited in his return from a career-threatening spinal condition, but the Tigers would probably be better than OK even without him.
Instead, Ross is leading the team in receptions and has been just about the only thing that hasn't gone wrong.
We know—between what he did in high school and what he showed last year in the two games that he started—that D.J. Uiagalelei has more than enough arm strength to take the top off any defense. But that deep ball has been basically nonexistent with just two passing plays of 40 or more yards.
And with Travis Etienne out of the picture, Clemson's run game has been unusually lacking in explosiveness, as well. After three years of backing up Etienne, Lyn-J Dixon lasted just three underutilized games before entering the transfer portal. True freshman Will Shipley has been out for the past few weeks with a leg injury.
Not what we were expecting in the preseason to say the least, and at this point there's pretty much no scenario—even in what has been a chaotic season—in which Clemson plays in a seventh consecutive College Football Playoff.
Stock Up: Wake Forest Demon Deacons
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What They Said in the Preseason
"Wake Forest doesn't beat the stars, but it beats the teams it's supposed to—for the most part—and wins enough 50/50 games to be fine." - College Football News (ranked 52nd)
"The offense could use more punch out of the ground game (3.86 per carry) and big runs after generating just four of 30-plus yards." - Athlon Sports (ranked 48th)
What Happened?
The blanket extra season of eligibility made for an extremely weird year of trying to project which teams would take a big step forward (or backward), but I think we all underappreciated the impact of Wake Forest bringing back 20 out of 22 starters from last season. And that's from a team that was already averaging 36.0 points per game.
Wake Forest has kicked that up a notch and has become much more consistent on offense, scoring at least 35 points in each of its first six victories.
That said, I still have serious doubts that the Demons Deacons are a real contender, considering they have allowed more than 500 yards of total offense in each of their last three games. When the calendar flips to November and they need to face North Carolina, NC State, Clemson and Boston College in four consecutive weeks—three of which are road games—things could turn ugly in a hurry.
It speaks volumes that Wake Forest is 4-0 in ACC play and is still nowhere near the favorite to win the conference.
They're at least on the fringe of the CFP conversation, though, which is way more than could have been said two months ago. And if they happen to win out, I have to assume a 13-0 Wake Forest would eventually leapfrog a 13-0 Cincinnati.
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Stock Down: Texas A&M Aggies
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What They Said in the Preseason
"At the very least, the Aggies are knocking on the door of consistent greatness. For a program that's waited this long for major success again, it'll take a few more months to get there." - College Football News (ranked 5th)
"Jimbo Fisher's Aggies came within one spot of making the CFB Playoff last season and enter 2021 clearly trending in the right direction." - Athlon Sports (ranked 6th)
What Happened?
Let me start by reiterating that this stock watch is based on changes since the beginning of the season. Though Texas A&M's stock is clearly way up in the past two weeks, it's also clearly way down over the past seven weeks.
And it's pretty clear that we, as a college football prognosticating society, underappreciated the difficulty the Aggies would have in their quest to replace not only starting quarterback Kellen Mond but also four starting offensive linemen.
The Aggies have been mostly solid on defense, holding opponents to 16.4 points per game. They've also been running the ball pretty well, most recently punctuated by Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane combining for 292 yards and three touchdowns in a 21-point win over Missouri.
But save for inexplicably coming to life in a huge way to knock off Alabama, the pass game has been a mess.
Zach Calzada had a field day against the Crimson Tide to the tune of 285 yards and three touchdowns with a 67.7 completion percentage. In the other six games, however, the Aggies have a 55.3 completion percentage, averaging 198.7 yards with nine touchdowns against eight interceptions.
That pass game was particularly bad in the losses to Arkansas and Mississippi State, as A&M was held below 300 total yards in three of its first five games.
They did need to switch from Haynes King to Calzada after King suffered a fractured leg in the first quarter of the second game of the season, but it's not like King was inspiring much confidence with the three picks he threw in the season opener against Kent State.
They may have turned a corner lately, but the Aggies missed Mond and 80 percent of his pass protection badly enough through the first five weeks to fall out of College Football Playoff contention.
Stock Up: Michigan Wolverines
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What They Said in the Preseason
"The schedule is full of enough wins to bounce back with at least a winning season, but that's not good enough." - College Football News (ranked 24th)
"A revamped staff should help Michigan get back on track and improve its fortunes on the recruiting trail." - Athlon Sports (ranked 32nd)
What Happened?
Whether at Stanford or Michigan, the common thread between Jim Harbaugh's best teams has been the ability to average north of 200 rushing yards per game.
For most of the disastrous 2-4 campaign in 2020, the Wolverines couldn't run the ball to save their lives. But despite losing Zach Charbonnet as a (thriving) transfer to UCLA, the run game has been Michigan's strength this year, averaging 246.5 yards per game, 5.5 yards per carry and 3.5 touchdowns per game.
Blake Corum has been one of the biggest breakout sensations of the 2021 season. After rushing 26 times for just 74 yards last season, the second-year running back has averaged better than 100 yards per game. Hassan Haskins has also done a fine job in his expanded role and was particularly crucial with two touchdowns in the 32-29 Week 6 win over Nebraska.
Moreover, the Wolverines defense has done a complete 180. They allowed 434.3 yards and 34.5 points per game during their six-game 2020 mess. This year, those numbers are at 309.0 and 15.5, respectively. They have yet to allow a single opponent to gain as many yards or score as many points in 2021 as they allowed on average in 2020.
We'll see how those numbers hold up down the stretch when they have games at Michigan State, at Penn State and vs. Ohio State in the final five weeks of the regular season. So far, so good for the head coach who entered the season on arguably the hottest seat in the country.
Stock Down: Miami Hurricanes
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What They Said in the Preseason
"This year’s team should be far, far better (than it was in 2020). It’s far deeper, and it’s more talented, so now the bar can be reasonably set at getting to the ACC Championship." - College Football News (ranked 26th)
"Quarterback D’Eriq King gives this team a chance to earn a trip to a New Year’s Six bowl, but the defense has to reload in order to defeat North Carolina at the top of the division." - Athlon Sports (ranked 14th)
What Happened?
The schedule certainly hasn't done 2-4 Miami any favors. Excluding the FCS game against Central Connecticut State, the Hurricanes' five opponents—Alabama, Appalachian State, Michigan State, Virginia and North Carolina—each has at least four wins and boasts a combined record of 26-8.
Against that gauntlet, Miami has not done itself any favors by keeping the famous turnover chain from making many appearances. The Hurricanes have yet to record multiple takeaways in a single game, though they have given it away three or more times on three occasions.
And without those momentum-shifting plays, Miami's sub-par defense has been exposed over and over again. Those five FBS opponents have averaged 422.4 total yards and 36.0 points per game against the 'Canes. For the most part, that damage hasn't come on home-run plays, either. Opponents have just been able to gradually move the ball against a defense that has a world of trouble getting off the field on third down.
Losing quarterback D'Eriq King for the year to a shoulder surgery didn't help matters, either, though he was impressively able to play in the first three games barely eight months removed from suffering a torn ACL. However, he wasn't anywhere near as impactful in those three games as he was in 2018 or 2020, and most of the preseason love for the 'Canes was tied up in the belief that King would be a Heisman candidate.
With him out and with this defense as hapless as it is, Miami might be headed for its first eight-loss season since 1977, perhaps even the first nine-loss season in program history.
Stock Up: Oklahoma State Cowboys
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What They Said in the Preseason
"Iowa State is the media darling, and the attention will be on Texas because it’s Texas and it has a new head coach, but Oklahoma State could be the sneaky-good team in the (Big 12) mix." - College Football News (ranked 22nd)
"Quarterback Spencer Sanders has to play with more consistency and cut down on the interceptions for Oklahoma State’s offense to improve. The Cowboys need a couple of receivers to step up." - Athlon Sports (ranked 28th)
What Happened?
Last year, Oklahoma State played great defense during its 4-0 start, holding those initial opponents to just 12.0 points per game. But that strength quickly turned into a weakness when the Cowboys allowed at least 41 points in each of Games 5, 7 and 8.
Thus far this year, though, they've been able to maintain that defensive prowess through six games, holding each of their opponents below 350 total yards and to 24 points or fewer.
That defense was particularly on point over the final 26 minutes of the come-from-behind Week 7 road win over Texas. The Cowboys did score on a pick six in the second quarter, but they still trailed 24-13 early in the third. From that point forward, however, they held the normally potent on offense Longhorns to 12 yards of total offense and no first downs. Their final six possessions consisted of four three-and-outs, a turnover on downs and an interception.
Meanwhile, Utah State transfer Jaylen Warren continued his recent streak of dominance at running back with 193 yards on the ground. He's now up to 659 just in the past four games against Boise State, Kansas State, Baylor and Texas. Considering no Cowboys rushed for more than 625 yards in the entire 2020 season, his emergence has been quite the fortuitous development.
Oklahoma State has a massive Week 8 game at Iowa State—a preseason Top 10 team which has come to life in recent weeks. But if the Cowboys win that one, there's a good chance they'll carry an 11-0 record into the season finale against Oklahoma.
Considering how chaotic this season has been, wrapping things up with some capital B Bedlam between two Top 5 teams sure would be fitting.
Stock Down: Iowa State Cyclones
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What They Said in the Preseason
"(Iowa State is) a good enough team to set the bar at Big 12 Championship or Bust, but Oklahoma might be the No. 1 team in the country, or at least in the top five." - College Football News (ranked 11th)
"The Cyclones are coming off arguably the best season in school history ... A run at the CFB Playoff is within reach for 2021." - Athlon Sports (ranked 7th)
What Happened?
Unlike Clemson and Texas A&M who are having more difficulty replacing departed players than expected, Iowa State has simply underperformed.
There's no excuse for a team to finish 9th in the AP poll, bring back 19 of its 22 primary starters and just barely escape with a season-opening home win over Northern Iowa. It was equally inexcusable to lose by 10 to Iowa on an afternoon where they held the Hawkeyes to 173 yards of total offense—though we have seen how lethal that Iowa D can be when it starts ball hawking.
The Cyclones also somehow managed to lose to Baylor in a game where Breece Hall gained 241 yards and scored three touchdowns, the Bears committed 75 more yards' worth of penalties and the Bears had 194 fewer yards of total offense.
Statistically speaking, Iowa State has been one of the best teams in the country. Hall got out to a slow start in his first two games, but he's back among the nation's leading rushers. Quarterback Brock Purdy was dreadful against Iowa, but he has completed better than 79 percent of his pass attempts in the other five games. And though they haven't forced many turnovers, the Cyclones have been tough to move the ball against all season.
Lady luck just wasn't on their side in those two losses, and it's unrealistic to expect a Big 12 team to crash the CFP party with two losses.
If by some miracle Iowa State did win out, though, things could get interesting, as they still play each of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas and would presumably draw one of the Oklahoma schools again in the Big 12 championship. Even if that happens, the Cyclones would need a sizable amount of external help in order to climb all the way into the Top Four.
Stock Up: Michigan State Spartans
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What They Said in the Preseason
"Michigan State beat Central Michigan 31-20 in late September of 2018. Since then, the team has scored more than 28 points just five times in 29 games and went 13-16." - College Football News (ranked 54th)
"The Spartans have ranked ninth or worse in the Big Ten in yards per play for four straight years. Also, last year’s scoring average (18 ppg) was last in the conference and the 20 lost turnovers were the most in the Big Ten." - Athlon Sports (ranked 79th)
What Happened?
While sputtering to a 2-5 record during the seven-game 2020 campaign, Michigan State allowed 397.4 total yards and 35.1 points per game. Through the first seven games of this season, the Spartans have actually allowed more yards on average (406.1), but they have slashed their scoring defense nearly in half to 18.7 points per game.
The old adage that the best defense is a good offense is extremely applicable here.
Michigan State's offense was in a near-constant state of putting its defense in a terrible position last year. As Athlon Sports noted, the Spartans committed 20 turnovers in 2020. They also averaged just 2.7 yards per carry and fewer than 100 rushing yards per game.
But this year, they are averaging just 1.0 giveaways per game and their rushing attack is literally 100 percent better per tote, averaging 5.4 yards a carry and a little better than 200 yards per contest. Not only are they avoiding the terrible turnovers, but they're usually able to at least do something positive before drives that end in a punt.
The infusion of Wake Forest transfer and Heisman hopeful Kenneth Walker III has been the biggest catalyst for growth. He's leading the nation in rushing at 997 yards, and the Spartans have yet to win by fewer than 17 points in games where he averages at least five yards per carry.
With opponents forced to respect the run in just about any down and distance, second-year quarterback Payton Thorne has also thrived. Even after a rough Week 7 performance against Indiana, Thorne has 15 touchdowns against four interceptions, and his adjusted passing yards per attempt has skyrocketed from 6.0 in 2020 to 10.0 this year.
It does bear mentioning, however, that Michigan State has yet to face an opponent that currently has a winning record, while all five opponents left on the schedule are 4-2 or better. With just a little bit of bad luck, this 7-0 CFP hopeful could devolve into a 7-5 Quick Lane Bowl participant. But even 7-5 is better than most expected from Sparty before the season began.
Other Noteworthy Movers
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Stock Up: Georgia Bulldogs
Stock Down: Alabama Crimson Tide
Not a ton has changed for either of these SEC favorites. However, between Alabama's loss to Texas A&M and Georgia's elite defense, they have swapped spots. Alabama opened the season as the favorite to win it all while Georgia looked like the top second-best team from a conference, liable to sneak in as the No. 4 seed if enough other Power Five leagues failed to produce a true contender. Now it's the Bulldogs clearly at No. 1 with the Crimson Tide hoping they can still do enough to get in.
Stock Up: Penn State Nittany Lions
While Michigan and Michigan State earned their own full sections for vaulting into the AP Top 10 from their preseason status as an afterthought, Penn State at least needs to be mentioned as a still-viable CFP contender. The Nittany Lions opened the season at No. 19 in the AP poll and are now comfortably in the Top 10. We'll just have to see how things shake out over the next six weeks once those Big Ten East contenders start crashing into each other.
Stock Down: North Carolina Tar Heels
Like Penn State, North Carolina certainly could have been worthy of its own section, but we opted to reserve just one spot for the loser of the Week 7 UNC-Miami game. Nevertheless, what a mess the Tar Heels have been after opening the season in the AP Top 10 for the first time since 1997. They've already suffered three losses and the defense has allowed at least 35 points in four of the past five games. Sam Howell is doing everything in his power to hold this team together, but it has only been enough for them to become a middle-of-the-pack team in a not-good ACC.
Stock Up: Iowa Hawkeyes
The Week 7 loss to Purdue obviously brings Iowa's stock down a fair amount, but the Hawkeyes are still in better shape than where they opened the year. Hard to imagine that this lackluster offense would win out, but they would almost certainly still finish in the Top Four if they were able to get to 12-1—considering that 12th win would come against one of Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State or Penn State.
Stock Down: Wisconsin Badgers
One of the reasons not much was expected of Iowa in the preseason is because Wisconsin looked like the clear best team in the Big Ten West. Instead, the Badgers have been a disaster on offense, sitting at 3-3 with more turnovers committed (15) than offensive touchdowns scored (14). That Iowa-Wisconsin game on Oct. 30 may well be a race to 10 points, and Iowa's defense might score most of them.
Stock Up: Ole Miss Rebels
2021 Ole Miss is on track to have 2020 Texas A&M's resume: undefeated save for one lopsided road loss to Alabama. We certainly aren't penciling the Rebels in to run the table the rest of the way against LSU, Auburn, Liberty, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, but they should be favored in each of those games and conceivably could pull it off. And it sure would be interesting to see what happens if Ole Miss goes 11-1 while Alabama finishes 11-2 with a loss to Georgia in the SEC championship. With the way this season has gone, maybe all three of those SEC teams finish in the Top Four?
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