NBA Finals 2021: Odds, Prop Bets, Score Prediction for Suns vs. Bucks Game 6

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistJuly 20, 2021

Milwaukee Bucks guard Jrue Holiday (21) shoots against the Phoenix Suns during the second half of Game 5 of basketball's NBA Finals, Saturday, July 17, 2021, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

The Milwaukee Bucks can win their first NBA Finals since 1971 in Tuesday's Game 6.

Milwaukee put itself in a position to clinch on its home hardwood thanks to a Game 5 road victory over the Phoenix Suns.

Throughout the series, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday have been the top producers for the Eastern Conference champion.

That should not change with a championship on the line, which puts all of their player props in play at Fiserv Forum.

For Phoenix to force Game 7, Devin Booker and Chris Paul need to be at their best, which makes both of those players intriguing to bet from a player prop vantage point as well.

Even if the series ends Tuesday, we should receive one final high output from the top players in the series. Antetokounmpo, Middleton, Holiday, Booker and Paul all averaged over 17 points per game in Games 1-5.


NBA Finals Game 6 Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread: Milwaukee (-4.5)

Over/Under: 222

Money Line: Milwaukee (-196; bet $196 to win $100); Phoenix (+164; bet $100 to win $164)


Prop Bet Predictions

Jrue Holiday Over 19.5 Points

Holiday is coming off his series high in points. He scored 27 points in the Game 5 victory.

The Milwaukee guard struggled at certain junctures of the series, as he failed to reach the 20-point threshold in three of the first four games.

Holiday appeared to turn a corner with his shooting form in Game 5. He went 3-of-6 from three-point range and 12-of-20 from the field.

When the Bucks closed out the Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference Finals, Holiday was responsible for 27 points, nine assists and nine rebounds.

Although Milwaukee did not have Antetokounmpo in the lineup for that series finale, it gave us a glimpse into how Holiday can step up with a series victory on the line.

Antetokounmpo's presence has not hindered Holiday's shot-taking. He is 35-of-89 in the series with nine fewer field-goal attempts than the Bucks superstar.

If the Bucks want to finish off the series at home, they need each member of their star trio to step up in the points column.

Holiday should be around the 20-point range after he broke out of his scoring slump in Game 5. It may also be worth taking his three-point prop of over 2.5 at +120 if you believe he will have another strong scoring night.


Chris Paul Over 8.5 Assists

Chris Paul only has 31 points in the last two games.

If the Phoenix guard is not at 100 percent, he will have to find different ways to affect the game and keep the Suns close for four quarters.

In Game 5, Paul produced his highest assist total of the series and his first double-digit handout game since Game 3 against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Paul has had nine or more assists in three of the five NBA Finals games. He had eight in Game 2 and seven in Game 4.

Paul should be in the middle of everything Phoenix does offensively, and if he can't be an effective scorer, he will try to set up Booker, Deandre Ayton and others with better looks.

The point guard's point prop is worth a gander because of the strong performances he turned in at the back end of previous series, but some may be skeptical that he can reach the 20-point mark after not hitting it in Games 3 and 4.


Final Score Prediction

Milwaukee 125, Phoenix 120

The victorious team in four of the five NBA Finals games scored at least 118 points.

If Holiday is playing well again alongside Antetokounmpo and Middleton, the Bucks could match, or exceed, the 123 points they scored in Game 5.

Both teams are shooting over 47.0 percent from the field and above 37.5 percent from three-point range in the series.

Unless all of the shooting trends are thrown out the window Tuesday, we will see another game hit the over.

Milwaukee's trio displayed strong shooting form Saturday, and if Holiday provides the necessary support to the two other stars, the Bucks should avoid a return trip to Arizona.


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