Tua Tagovailoa Is NFL's Best Long-Shot Bet for MVP in 2021

Take a look at the odds to win the National Football League's Most Valuable Player award at DraftKings, and it's mostly a list of the usual suspects. 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes is the favorite, because he's Patrick Mahomes. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (the runner-up in 2020) comes in second. Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (the reigning MVP) is third, despite the fact that no one knows where (or if) he will play in 2021.

Apparently, some people are either really optimistic or like setting money on fire. Whatever—I don't judge.

However, if long shots are more your cup of tea (and who doesn't like a long shot?), there's a young quarterback for a playoff contender who has both the talent and weapons around him to have a big second season in the pros. A southpaw signal-caller who could win you $66 for every dollar wagered. A dark horse with an actual chance to win the race.

That quarterback is Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins.

There has been quite a bit of hand-wringing in Miami over Tagovailoa's uneven rookie season. The fifth overall pick in 2020 didn't help matters when he admitted to reporters (via Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald) that he didn't have a great grasp of Miami's playbook in 2020.

"I wasn't comfortable calling plays," Tagovailoa said. "I think the guys that were here last year were phenomenal. I just didn't have the comfortability of checking plays, alerting plays and doing that. I just rode with the play, even if I knew it wasn't going to work. I was going to try to make it work still."

Adrian Kraus/Associated Press

However, as Jeff Kerr reported for CBS Sports, Dolphins head coach Brian Flores was quick to come to the defense of his young quarterback while lauding the progress that Tagovailoa has made in the offseason.

"I think he's thinking about where he is right now versus that time a year ago, just reflecting. And that's good. This time is about reflection and where you are now versus where you were six months ago. I think he's worked hard to improve in a lot of areas, and I think he has and I think he's kind of communicated that out."

Per ESPN's Cameron Wolfe, the greatest quarterback in Dolphins history doesn't have any doubt that Tagovailoa can have a vastly improved Year 2.

"He's been great," Dan Marino said. "He's been awesome. He has all the talent in the world. Now it's just about him developing the relationship with the other players. It's been tough because he didn't have OTAs last year, a lot of the summer camp or the chance to play in exhibition games. All those things delay you somewhat. I'll tell you, he works his butt off. I'm really excited about him, his future and our future as a team."

Marino makes a couple of valid points.

It's not exactly unheard of for a young quarterback to struggle in his first season, especially when that quarterback has as much working against him as Tagovailoa did in 2020. The youngster's first NFL offseason was completely wiped out by the COVID-19 pandemic. Even if teams had been able to conduct OTAs and training camps, Tagovailoa's participation would have been limited at best as he worked his way back from the dislocated hip that ended his collegiate career. That injury could have also played a big part in Tagovailoa's struggles on the field in 2020.

But it wasn't that long ago that Tagovailoa wasn't just considered the top quarterback prospect in his class. The 6'0", 217-pounder was considered by some the best prospect at the position in several years. There was public speculation that NFL teams might "Tank for Tua."

But then Joe Burrow had maybe the best single season by a quarterback in college football history, while Tagovailoa got hurt.

Still, heading into the 2020 draft, Lance Zierlein of NFL.com wrote that Tagovailoa, "has the release, accuracy and touch needed to work all three levels successfully and can become a more disciplined, full-field reader to piece the puzzle together against NFL coverages."

Now that talented young quarterback has nine pro starts under his belt, and he's another year removed from his injury.

He's also at the helm of a pretty good football team.

Even with up-and-down play from Tagovailoa, the Dolphins still won 10 games last year and narrowly missed the postseason. There's no shortage of passing-game weaponry at Tagovailoa's disposal. In addition to holdovers like wide receiver DeVante Parker and tight end Mike Gesicki, the Dolphins brought in wide receiver Will Fuller V coming off a career year with the Houston Texans and added one of Tagovailoa's old Alabama teammates when they drafted Jaylen Waddle sixth overall.

Per Omar Kelly of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Waddle has quickly made a positive impression on his new teammates.

However, while Miami's receiving corps is solid, the run game is a question mark. The Dolphins ranked 22nd in the league in rushing last year at 105.5 yards per game, and there wasn't a player on the team who gained even 600 yards on the ground.

If the Dolphins have any shot of hanging with the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East, then Miami's offense is going to run through Tagovailoa. And as Kerr reported, Flores is focused on making sure Tagovailoa's second professional season is much better than the first.

"Last year is last year. I'm more of a forward-thinker," Flores said. "I think Tua—we've talked about his growth a lot from the last six months and how he's reflected on that. I think my focus is on helping him improve on a daily basis. Obviously, you use the past to kind of point you in the right direction of where to make those improvements and we'll just continue to focus on this one day at a time and help Tua."

Miami's biggest issue offensively is likely its young O-line. In 2020, Pro Football Focus ranked the Dolphins line as the fifth-worst in the league. Entering training camp, PFF slotted Miami's line even lower—ahead of only the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants.

It's going to take better line play than that for the Dolphins to make the playoffs in 2021. And make no mistake—to have any chance at being named MVP, Tagovailoa has to get the Dolphins into the postseason.

That's the thing with long shots. They are long shots for a reason. There's a lot that would have to happen in order for Tagovailoa to have a shot at headlining the NFL Honors next year in Los Angeles.

Adrian Kraus/Associated Press

The line in front of Tagovailoa needs to hold up and give him time to throw the ball. The new receivers on the team need to add an ability to take the top off defenses—something that was lacking at times in 2020. And Tagovailoa needs to improve considerably as a passer, especially on those throws down the field.

However, it's hardly beyond the realm of reason that those things could actually happen. Miami's line wasn't good in 2020, but it's also very young, so there's lots of room for improvement. The Dolphins may well have the best receivers room (top to bottom) in the AFC East. And unless a whole lot of folks were wrong about the team's quarterback, Tagovailoa has only just scratched the surface of what he can do in the pros.

The Dolphins are capable of winning 11-12 games and giving the Bills a run for their money in the division. Tagovailoa has the weapons and the talent to take a big step forward in his second season.

And two of the last three MVPs were second-year signal-callers.

Occasionally, long shots hit.

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