Buying or Selling Latest NBA Trade Buzz: JJ Redick, Lonzo Ball on the Move?
Trade season is officially upon the NBA.
While a lion's share of the action won't materialize until closer to the March 25 trade deadline, the current chatter will invariably shape much of what happens from here. So, let's parse through that scuttlebutt.
As usual, our focus lies with the most noteworthy and recent rumblings. Small-potato speculation is for another day and time. Juicy names rule this space.
Our buy-or-sell verdicts are not meant to be commentary on the validity of the reporting within. They are instead a metric for how much sense the rumors and scenarios in question actually make.
JJ Redick Headed (Back) to the Atlantic Division?
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As the NBA's most disappointing team so far, the New Orleans Pelicans look like they'll be open for business. They might not actively shop everyone, but the makeup of their roster suggests nobody aside from Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram is untouchable.
JJ Redick's availability is among the strongest givens—and a mutually beneficial development. The Pelicans aren't on the verge of contention, and he's a 36-year-old sharpshooter whose shooting isn't too sharp at the moment.
Plenty of teams can talk themselves into the idea of Redick, but New Orleans appears to be focusing on suitors in the Atlantic Division, namely the Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers, according to The Athletic's Shams Charania. The New York Knicks are also on Redick's list of preferred destinations, per the Philadelphia Inquirer's Keith Pompey.
Every one of those landing spots makes some sense. Redick's family lives in Brooklyn, and ending up in any of those locations qualifies as a return home.
Logistically speaking, though, the Nets should be bounced from consideration. They don't have the requisite contracts to match Redick's expiring $13 million salary unless they're sending out DeAndre Jordan or the injured Spencer Dinwiddie. And assuming they're trying to move either, acquiring another scorer who doesn't nudge the defensive needle in the right direction makes sub-zero sense.
Boston, New York and Philadelphia are all interesting. The Celtics have a massive traded player exception from the Gordon Hayward deal and rank 24th in three-point-attempt rate. The Sixers can always use more ball-handlers and shooters around Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, and Redick's familiarity with the two stars is a huge plus—doubly so if Philly can work out a package that doesn't include Danny Green. The Knicks are better than expected, have cap space and rank inside the bottom seven of both three-point frequency and accuracy.
Verdict: Buy that Redick will wind up on Boston, New York or Philadelphia
New Orleans Open to Moving Lonzo Ball?
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Lonzo Ball is among the Pelicans players drawing interest around the league, and New Orleans is apparently open to moving him, according to Charania. This is what we call a total non-surprise.
The Pelicans have to start futzing and fiddling with their bigger picture. They already maxed out Brandon Ingram and extended Steven Adams. Restricted free agents-to-be Ball and Josh Hart are next in line. This roster is beginning to get expensive, and New Orleans can ill afford to shell out money for the sake of further experimentation.
Jettisoning Ball feels like the smart play for both sides. The Pelicans need a guard that can shoulder more traditional playmaking and finishing responsibilities in the half court. That's never been Ball's M.O. He ranks fourth on the team in pick-and-rolls run per game and is scoring on only 24 percent of his drives, the second-lowest mark in the league among 130 players to churn through at least 75 downhill attacks this season.
New Orleans has only complicated matters by playing at a mediocre pace. It is 16th in average possession time and isn't spending much more time in transition with Ball on the floor. Both parties need a change.
Finding the perfect destination for Ball is tough. ESPN's Brian Windhorst floated the Chicago Bulls and Golden State Warriors as possibilities on The Hoop Collective podcast (h/t Bleacher Nation). The Knicks have been bandied about as well, but they aren't expected to be major players for his services, per SNY's Ian Begley.
Rolling the dice on Ball is a worthwhile gambit. He's only 23 and is a transcendent passer when afforded the necessary room and speed to operate. He's a disruptive defender, too. But the prospect of footing the bill on his next contract coupled with his spotty shooting this season makes it difficult to ascertain a no-brainer asking price.
His exit from New Orleans might rest on the Pelicans selling low, which isn't out of the question.
Verdict: Buy Lonzo finishing the season on a different team.
Houston Wants a 1st-Rounder or a Trio of 2nds for P.J. Tucker?
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P.J. Tucker's tenure with the Houston Rockets has been on life support since before the James Harden trade. He reportedly wasn't happy about not getting a contract extension prior to this season, and with free agency on the horizon, the 35-year-old's departure has long felt like a matter of time.
Harden's departure should only accelerate the divorce. The new-look Rockets are frisky and playing a ton of defense, but Tucker's age and contract situation remain issues. Houston has even set an asking price for his services, according to Windhorst (via HoopsHype's Bryan Kalbrosky):
"The word on the street that I heard that has been floated [for his value]: they either want a first-round pick or three seconds, which I've never heard that arithmetic done. Three seconds...There are 15 teams that are somewhat impacted from trading firsts and eight who can't really trade any, sort of narrows the market. Most of the competitors, most of the teams who are playoff teams this year, are encumbered from trading their pick."
Nabbing a first-rounder for Tucker is a lofty goal, as Windhorst noted. He only holds that kind of value to mega contenders, and the foremost championship hopefuls don't have imminent picks to burn. The Nets, Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers and Milwaukee Bucks all fall under this umbrella.
Other potential suitors either aren't good enough to justify forking over a first or would have to deal one too far into the future. The Warriors aren't coughing up the Minnesota Timberwolves' 2021 pick (top-three protection). The Dallas Mavericks can't include a first prior to 2025. The Utah Jazz could use him but can't throw in a first-rounder before 2023.
Three seconds might even be too steep. Tucker turns 36 in May, and for all the defensive optionality and sturdiness he provides, he isn't a high enough volume shooter on offense to warrant heavy playing time in every situation. Beyond that, anyone who acquires him may strictly view him as a rental.
Verdict: Sell the Rockets getting a first for Tucker. Buy them getting multiple seconds.
New York Eyeing Zach LaVine?
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Zach LaVine is having the kind of season that piques the interest of teams for which he doesn't play. He's averaging 26.6 points per game while knocking down the usual number of difficult jumpers—42.9 percent on pull-up threes—and his playmaking has improved despite his career-high 4.2 turnovers per game.
So many squads could use LaVine as their second or third in command. Whether the Chicago Bulls want to move him is a different story. They're in their first season under executive vice president of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas, and LaVine is set to become a free agent in 2022. But going on 26, he's far from aged himself out of a rebuilding team's long-term plans.
That won't prevent admirers from calling Chicago. They absolutely will. The Knicks have at least considered it. LaVine is "one of many players" on their radar, according to the New York Post's Marc Berman.
Due diligence is different from kitchen-sink interest. And the Knicks cannot justify the latter. Their defense is pleasantly surprising—although they do give up a boatload of looks at the rim and from beyond the arc—and they're hovering inside the Eastern Conference's postseason picture. But a close-to-.500 record and proximity to the play-in tournament isn't license to unload the asset clip and expedite what remains a rebuild.
This presumes the Knicks have the tangible equity to even interest the Bulls. They have plenty of firsts to dangle—including all of their own picks and Dallas' selections this year and in 2023 (top-10 protection)—but the value of their personnel is all over place.
Mitchell Robinson remains a project who could command a new contract this summer (team option). Kevin Knox and Frank Ntilikina are flier prospects. Obi Toppin hasn't seen enough action for New York to understand his value. And dealing either RJ Barrett or Immanuel Quickley should be off the table unless the Knicks are bringing back a patented superstar.
LaVine isn't that. He's more of a finishing piece than launching point. Bradley Beal is more the Knicks' speed if they're angling to accelerate their timeline.
Verdict: Sell the Knicks treating LaVine as a trade priority.
Golden State Not Shopping Kelly Oubre Jr.?
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Sources told Charania that the Pelicans and Golden State Warriors discussed a deal involving Kelly Oubre Jr. Windhorst noted those talks have specifically involved Lonzo Ball (h/t HoopsHype).
But during a recent appearance on 95.7 The Game, Warriors head coach Steve Kerr claimed Golden State did not initiate those negotiations, per NBC Sports' Marcus White:
"I think it's important for guys to accept it because in the modern life that we live there's just going to be constant scrutiny and judgment and rumors and all kinds of stuff. But I did feel compelled to tell everybody exactly what happened, which was, somebody called us, there wasn't even an offer made and all of a sudden, it's on the internet. So that stuff is frustrating when it happens."
This mostly tracks. Ball might be able to optimize their decision-making in transition and help on defense, but they need another guard who facilitates and packs a scoring punch, particularly during minutes logged without Stephen Curry. He checks only one of those boxes, and his sub-30-percent clip from distance only complicates his potential fit.
Oubre has been one of the league's worst shooters this season. It wouldn't take much for Golden State to see more potential in Ball's place on the team. He is more consistent on defense, and his passing on the move can be revelatory.
But the Warriors likely aren't getting him for Oubre alone. Such a deal wouldn't do anything for the Pelicans. They have no business paying Oubre after this season, especially given how he's fared on offense. Meanwhile, the Warriors shouldn't be sweetening deals with picks unless they're bagging a star.
In this exact instance, it's easy to buy the Warriors' stance. Overall, though? Not so much.
Oubre's $14.4 million expiring salary is a perfect anchor for prospective blockbuster scenarios that reel in bigger names. And not only is he easier to move than Andrew Wiggins, he's much less valuable at this point as well.
Golden State should even be open to shipping Oubre out in smaller deals that require low-lift buffers and land a more suitable fit for the roster. Ball just doesn't seem like that player.
Verdict: Buy the Warriors not trying to trade Oubre for Ball. Sell the idea they aren't looking to move him at all.
Bradley Beal Won't Be Traded This Season?
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Everyone is waiting for the Washington Wizards to trade Bradley Beal.
Except for the Wizards and Beal, as The Athletic's Charania and Fred Katz wrote Tuesday:
"Beal has so far expressed he wants to remain in Washington and has not indicated he prefers to be traded, sources with knowledge of the situation tell The Athletic. The Wizards, in turn, have no interest in trading him. Amid calls from the general public and even ones from around the league that a team at the bottom of the standings would be best off dealing its prized player, Washington has made it clear it has no plans to move him."
Plenty can change between now and the March 25 trade deadline. The Wizards are last in the Eastern Conference while battling injuries and suboptimal performances from key players, and Beal has repeatedly said that he wants to win now.
Still, he didn't sign an extension in 2019 for no reason. He clearly wants to make it work in Washington, on the team that drafted him. As Charania and Katz noted, he envies the legacy Dirk Nowitzki left behind in Dallas as both a champion and lifer.
Color me skeptical that Beal gets said opportunity with the Wizards. Few players do, and Washington is light-years away from title contention. Everyone's loyalty has its limits.
It feels like a matter of time before Beal reaches his breaking point. Then again, that goes entirely against his own words. It's fair to start recalibrating his availability; it's sure starting to feel like he won't get moved this season.
The Wizards can still talk themselves into Davis Bertans and Russell Westbrook perking up, and they don't have to worry about compromising Beal's trade value. He will theoretically command more with a season-plus left on his deal (he has a player option for 2022-23), but the Pelicans just got three firsts and two swaps for Jrue Holiday when he was entering the final year of his contract (player option).
Beal is the better player between the two, and a suddenly lackluster 2021 free-agency class only increases the likelihood that at least one team comes over the top.
Verdict: Buy he finishes the season in Washington.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering games on Jan. 21. Salary information via Basketball Insiders and Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by B/R's Adam Fromal.
