MLB Free Agency 2021: 7 Biggest Potential Steals Still on the Market
With spring training fast approaching, there is still a wealth of unsigned talent left in free agency, though the market has finally picked up some steam in recent weeks.
National League Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer is the biggest name still searching for his next team, but behind him is an intriguing mix of aging veterans and bounce-back candidates.
Our goal: Find the best potential steals from what's left of the market.
First things first, it's important to explain the difference between a bargain and a steal.
A player like Delino DeShields could be a nice bargain addition to a team looking to round out its bench with some speed as he'll likely be available on a minor league deal. However, his upside is limited, and the odds of him drastically exceeding his contract in terms of value produced are low.
The goal here was to highlight the seven players most likely to outperform their contracts, therefore proving themselves steals for their next teams.
Included is a prediction of where each player will sign and what their contract will look like. Players are ordered based on their projected contract value.
Let's get to it.
RP Keone Kela
1 of 7
Keone Kela has been a lights-out late-inning reliever since making his MLB debut at age 21 with the Texas Rangers in 2015.
After a 24-save season while splitting the 2018 campaign between Texas and the Pittsburgh Pirates, he posted a 2.12 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 10 strikeouts per nine innings with six holds over 32 appearances in 2019, pitching in a setup role during his first full season with the Pirates.
Between a positive COVID-19 test and forearm inflammation, he made just three appearances this past season, and lingering concerns over the health of his arm could be one of the reasons he's still available.
There is ample reason to believe he's still worth a roll of the dice.
He has a 3.24 ERA and 11.0 K/9 in 231 career appearances, he's armed with an upper-90s fastball and a hard-biting curveball, and he's still only 27 years old.
He could easily be this year's Trevor Rosenthal.
Prediction: Signs a one-year, $2 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies with another $4 million in available incentives for games pitched.
3B Jake Lamb
2 of 7
The Oakland Athletics were in a tough spot when third baseman Matt Chapman suffered a hip injury that required season-ending surgery in the middle of September.
With the trade deadline passed and no clear in-house solution, they took a flier on Jake Lamb, who had recently been released by the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Not long ago, Lamb was a young slugger on the rise:
- 2016: 114 OPS+, .249/.332/.509, 31 2B, 29 HR, 91 RBI
- 2017: 112 OPS+, .248/.357/.487, 30 2B, 30 HR, 105 RBI
However, injuries limited him in the two seasons that followed, and he was hitting just .116 with a 6 OPS+ in 50 plate appearances when the D-backs cut ties on Sept. 12.
The 30-year-old went 12-for-45 with four doubles and three home runs in 13 games with Oakland down the stretch, and that has made him an intriguing buy-low candidate this offseason.
He could be this year's version of Brad Miller, who signed a one-year, $2 million deal with the St. Louis Cardinals last offseason to fill a bench role and wound up being one of the team's most productive hitters.
Travis Shaw landed a one-year, $4 million pact from the Toronto Blue Jays last winter with a similar bounce-back profile, so that's a reasonable comparison, as well.
Prediction: Signs a one-year, $2.5 million contract with the Milwaukee Brewers.
SP Rick Porcello
3 of 7
The surface-level numbers for Rick Porcello were appalling last season.
He went 1-7 with a 5.64 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and .303 opponents' batting average over 12 starts on a one-year, $10 million contract with the New York Mets.
However, there was some reason for optimism.
His 3.33 FIP and .373 BABIP paint a picture of a pitcher who suffered some bad luck, and he ranked in the 70th percentile in exit velocity allowed despite his unsightly opponents' batting average.
He had a few clunkers among his 12 starts, but he also had a few gems, including seven innings of three-hit, one-run, 10-strikeout ball against the Atlanta Braves on Sept. 20.
In a market in which pitchers with similar profiles like Tyler Chatwood, Michael Wacha and Carlos Rodon have signed one-year, $3 million deals, Porcello has a chance to be a steal if he can find a bit more consistency and some better luck in 2021.
Expecting him to be anything more than a No. 4/5 starter is risky, but he could wind up filling more of a middle-of-the-rotation role if a few things break right.
Prediction: Signs a one-year, $4 million deal with the Oakland Athletics.
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2B Jonathan Schoop
4 of 7
If there had been an All-Star Game in 2020, there's a good chance Jonathan Schoop would have been the representative for the Detroit Tigers.
He hit .278/.324/.475 with 14 extra-base hits and 23 RBI in 44 games, tallying 1.2 WAR to finish second on the team to Jeimer Candelario.
The 29-year-old Schoop may never duplicate his gaudy 2017 numbers when he hit .293/.338/.503 with 35 doubles, 32 home runs and 105 RBI in a 6.3-WAR season to finish 12th in American League MVP voting, but he's a capable everyday second baseman with above-average power for the position.
Fellow veteran Cesar Hernandez set the bar with the one-year, $5 million contract he recently signed to re-up with Cleveland for another year.
Hernandez signed for $6.3 million a year ago, and Schoop may need to take a similar pay cut after inking a one-year, $6.1 million deal last winter.
A number of teams would benefit from adding him to the lineup, and a 3.0-WAR season for less than the valuation of 1.0 WAR is possible.
Prediction: Signs a one-year, $5 million deal with the Miami Marlins.
RP Alex Colome
5 of 7
Alex Colome is something of an enigma in today's world of 100 mph fastballs and skyrocketing strikeout rates.
The 32-year-old throws a low-90s cutter roughly 70 percent of the time, reaching back to hit the mid-90s with his fastball the other 30 percent. The result the past two seasons has been a middling 7.7 K/9 while serving as the Chicago White Sox closer.
It's hard to argue with the results, though.
During that time, he's nailed down 42 of 46 save chances with a 2.27 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 47.2 percent ground ball rate.
He is capable of being every bit as effective as Blake Treinen (2/$17.5M) and Trevor May (2/$15.5M) in the late innings, and it shouldn't take a multiyear commitment for a contender to add him to its bullpen contingent.
A closer with a strong track record of success coming off the best season of his career for less than $10 million would be an absolute steal in any market.
Prediction: Signs a one-year, $8 million deal with the Minnesota Twins.
DH Nelson Cruz
6 of 7
Despite showing no signs of aging to this point, Nelson Cruz is going to see his earning power limited by the fact that he's set to turn 41 years old in July.
The last time he was a free agent, he had averaged 41 home runs and 104 RBI over his previous five seasons and was fresh off a 37-homer, 135 OPS+ campaign with the Seattle Mariners.
Even with those strong numbers, he had to settle for a one-year, $14 million contract with the Minnesota Twins that wound up being a two-year, $26 million deal after his 2020 club option was exercised.
So while he was again one of the game's elite sluggers this past season, it's unlikely that is going to drive up his market value beyond what he's earned the past couple of years.
The security of a guaranteed two-year deal and a $12 million salary to match what he earned in 2020 might be all it takes to add his thunderous bat to the middle of the lineup.
The question is whether the Twins will let him walk—and who will swoop in if they do.
Prediction: Signs a two-year, $24 million deal with the Chicago White Sox.
SP Jake Odorizzi
7 of 7
Jake Odorizzi was a non-factor for the Minnesota Twins in 2020.
He started just four games while making three separate trips to the injured list, finishing with a 6.59 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 13.2 innings of work.
However, he's just a year removed from an All-Star selection when he went 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 178 strikeouts in 159 innings. Prior to his injury-plagued 2020, he had rattled off six straight seasons with at least 28 starts.
He will turn 31 years old shortly after Opening Day this year, making him one of the few solid candidates for a multiyear deal.
The three-year, $28 million deal his former teammate Kyle Gibson signed with the Texas Rangers last winter is a reasonable comparison. Odorizzi offers more upside, and he's a year younger than Gibson was when he hit the open market, so he should be able to secure a larger average annual salary.
With no reason to believe there will be any lingering effects from his 2020 ailments, he has middle-of-the-rotation upside and should come at a back-of-the-rotation price.
Prediction: Signs a three-year, $36 million deal with the Boston Red Sox.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
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