NBA Teams That Should Blow It Up Now
The NBA doesn't want teams to push the red button.
Flattened lottery odds made the race to the bottom less of a sure thing, and last year's addition of a play-in tournament expanded the list of "postseason" entrants in each conference to 10. Those are clear disincentives to trading away talent and losing on purpose.
Finish a season with the worst record in the league and, congratulations: You have only a 14 percent shot at the top selection, exactly the same as the teams that finished with the second- and third-worst marks. Tanking isn't what it used to be.
It'll be particularly challenging to try a blow-up strategy this season. The first-round picks most organizations would want in exchange for their costly vets are in short supply.
In light of all that, the situation has to be especially hopeless to justify demolition—marked by a shortage of promising young cornerstones, a lack of direction, a few too many miles on the mediocrity treadmill, overpaid players who can't raise the franchise's ceiling, impending contract quagmires and/or a culture that locks a team into a losing rut.
It has never made less sense to blow the whole thing up. But if anyone's going to hit that button, these teams should be the first ones to consider it.
Chicago Bulls
1 of 5
We should probably start with the handful of contractual decisions nudging the Chicago Bulls toward a fresh start, as their play this year hasn't been bad enough on its own to justify a position here. Chicago is in the mix for a play-in spot.
With that said, it's already decision time on Lauri Markkanen, who failed to reach an extension agreement with the Bulls prior to the season and is now ticketed for restricted free agency this summer. The No. 7 pick in 2017 has shown flashes of stretch scoring (career 35.7 percent from deep) with an occasional attacking mean streak. But he's had injury issues every year and is still without a position on defense.
The Bulls clearly have a number they didn't want to reach on his new deal. Although they'll have matching rights this summer, failed extension talks often portend a breakup.
Zach LaVine is a valuable high-usage scorer, but his annual habit of giving away more on defense than he gets on offense is intact. He's been a consistent net negative throughout his career, but he's never had a lower on-off differential than the one he's posting in 2020-21. He has one more year on his deal after this one. If the Bulls view Coby White (similarly shaky on D) as their long-term answer at the point, they can't go forward with LaVine as his running mate. You can't plug two holes in the dam when they're both this big.
Thaddeus Young and Tomas Satoransky's 2021-22 salaries are only partially guaranteed, and Otto Porter Jr.'s deal comes off the books after this year, too.
Chicago could move one or all of these players for value, and it should. None of them project as being worth what they'll be paid next year—least of all Markkanen, who could see a windfall offer sheet in what's looking like a thinner-than-expected free-agent class.
Over the last three years, the Bulls finished 13th, 13th and 11th in the East. This core, if retained, doesn't have the punch or upside to dramatically improve on those positions.
It's time to cut bait on everyone but White, Patrick Williams and Wendell Carter Jr.
Houston Rockets
2 of 5
The James Harden trade got the ball rolling, and the Houston Rockets would be best served by riding this wave of future-focused momentum.
John Wall's presence complicates that approach. He's on the books for $91.6 million over the two season after this one and ranks among the league's least palatable contracts.
Victor Oladipo's expiring deal is definitely one to shop, though. Houston, clearly unwilling to pay the luxury tax in recent years, opted to take him back in the Harden deal over Caris LeVert—a younger, cost-controlled and arguably better option. The Rockets might be perfectly happy letting Oladipo walk for nothing, but they could also extract a pick via trade, ideally without taking back long-term salary.
P.J. Tucker, who's also on an expiring deal, should incite a bidding war among contenders.
Eric Gordon has two more fully guaranteed years after this one at a total of just under $38 million, followed by a non-guaranteed $20.9 million in 2023-24. That deal won't age well, and Gordon, who can always be counted on to miss a few weeks per year, is playing better now than he has since 2017-18. The time to move him is now.
Houston is in a consolidation phase after dealing Harden, and the worst thing it could do now is adopt half-measures. Christian Wood is a keeper—at least offensively—and he's young enough at 25 to view as a pillar of the next era.
Anything else not nailed down should go. All those incoming picks from the Brooklyn Nets could form either the foundation of a gradual post-teardown rebuild or grease the skids to move some of the Rockets' rotten contracts.
Houston has the tools to reset. It should summon the will to put them to use.
Orlando Magic
3 of 5
The Orlando Magic haven't escaped the first round of the playoffs since 2010, which was peak Dwight Howard time. Howard is now in his age-35 season and has played for six teams since departing Orlando, which helps contextualize just how long the Magic have been wandering in the wilderness.
Few teams better exemplify life in limbo than the Magic, who've resided in that soft and meaningless middle for a decade. Not bad enough to start over; not good enough to do more than quietly sulk away after a first-round beating. That's the Magic in a nutshell.
Shouldn't Orlando be sick of this? Actually, shouldn't it have been sick of this three or four years ago?
Enough is enough. Nikola Vucevic is one of the best offensive canters in the league, and he's averaging a career-high 23.2 points on 57.4 percent true shooting. He's never been better, which is precisely why now is the time to move him. Nobody likes defensively suspect non-switching centers, but Vooch provides enough offensive potency for teams to view his deal (two more years at an average of $23 million after this one) as a sound investment.
Looking at you, Boston Celtics.
Aaron Gordon has spent virtually his entire career on the trade block, and though he's five years younger than Vucevic, the 25-year-old has been roughly the same "solid starter on a bad team" over the last three seasons. Maybe he has another level in him, but it's clear that he isn't reaching it in Orlando.
Evan Fournier's contract expires after this season, and Terrence Ross could spark interest as a sixth man for a scoring-starved contender. These are movable contracts, and the urgency to ship them out is only amplified by the presences of deals the Magic can't budge.
Jonathan Isaac won't play this season because of another major knee injury, but his four-year, $80 million extension kicks in for 2021-22. Markelle Fultz went down earlier this year with his own torn ACL, and he's on the books for $16.5 million in 2021-22 and 2022-23 with a largely non-guaranteed $17 million in 2023-24. The players most likely to lead Orlando out of purgatory are hugely risky investments who won't be healthy enough to contribute until next season.
Despite the lower expected value of tanking, the Magic are one of the teams that should think hardest about going that route anyway. It'd be one thing if the vets on hand were the remnants of a successful core trying to squeeze out one last run before disbanding or aging out. But this group peaks at five-game first-round dismissals.
That's a bleak future, so Orlando should be trying to build a brighter one.
Sacramento Kings
4 of 5
Considering he's played fewer than 100 NBA games, Marvin Bagley III can't be written off as a bust yet. But unless you're persuaded a frontcourt player can become a foundational piece without reliably stretching the floor or defending, you can safely bet he won't be a quality starter on a winner.
The Sacramento Kings have the league's longest playoff drought for many reasons, but one has been failing to capitalize on high draft position. Bagley, taken one spot ahead of Luka Doncic in 2018, is evidence of that.
At least the Kings deserve credit for snagging De'Aaron Fox in 2017 and Tyrese Haliburton this past offseason. Those two project as legitimate difference-makers, with Fox's athleticism and Haliburton's feel giving Sacramento one of the most exciting young backcourts in the league.
Everything else, from the players to the style to the coaching to the culture, can go.
It's tough in Sacramento, with the same tired refrains about lack of consistency and not knowing how to win cropping up this year. The only difference this season is that the bar for playoff entry got lower. The Kings don't appear close to clearing it. That's what having the worst defense of all time gets you.
Head coach Luke Walton hasn't arrived at a tactical approach that gets the most out of the roster, player discontent arises annually, and it's mpossible to build sustainable success with a defense this bad.
It's painful to suggest starting over when Sacramento hasn't won 40 games in a season since 2005-06, but other than Fox and Haliburton, there's nothing worth holding onto here.
Washington Wizards
5 of 5
Bradley Beal will be the next major star involved in a trade. He has to be. The Washington Wizards don't have another choice.
Sitting at the bottom of the East and again fielding a defense that turns every opposing offense into the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors, the Wizards are the worst combination of costly and uncompetitive.
Russell Westbrook, in decline and owed more than $91 million after this season, isn't going anywhere. He'll scuttle a full rebuild for as long as he's on the roster—mainly because of his salary (high) and production (slipping), but also partly because his competitive wiring will not countenance deliberate failure. Washington gave up a first-round pick in the trade that swapped John Wall for Russ, and it's looking like the draft compensation should have gone the other way.
Scroll through the roster, and the only no-brainer keepers (factoring in cost) are Beal, Deni Avdija and Isaac Bonga. Troy Brown Jr., Thomas Bryant (out with a torn ACL) and Rui Hachimura deserve consideration, but they aren't locks.
Beal is arguably the most valuable trade piece likely to hit the block this year, and he could bring back several assets that could be worth more than either Avdija or Bonga. The Wizards need that kind of high-volume approach to asset-hoarding.
Head coach Scott Brooks is in the last year of his deal, which suggests he's on the way out. Teams don't tend to suffer lame-duck seasons and the uncertainty they bring...unless there's no intention of extending the relationship. With a massive Beal trade and likely coach turnover on the horizon, the Wizards are the most obvious blow-up candidate in the league.
All we need to do is count the days until Beal finally floats he'd be open to playing elsewhere. His restraint on the front has been almost supernatural, but it won't last forever.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Basketball Insiders.
