Adam Kramer's College Football Locks and Top Bets for the National Championship

While the 2020 college football season has unquestionably felt different than each one that came before it, what happens next will feel familiar. The offseason nears, and what was once a robust slate of games has been condensed down to a single matchup.  

For Locks of the Week, this game—the national championship—will determine whether we have a winning season or not. After a solid few weeks of bowl selections, I arrived at this final wagering opportunity 52-52.  

That seems frankly impossible, although it is not. And somewhat symbolically, we will cap off the year in the green or red. Before we talk about our national championship plays, let's first revisit the good and bad from the bowl season that was. 

The Good: Ohio State (+7.5) vs. Clemson: I felt good about the Buckeyes covering. I did not expect them to win that comfortably. I especially did not expect them to win that comfortably with Justin Fields being as limited as he looked at times after that brutal hit to his side. But, well, this one worked out. For those bold enough to take Ohio State on the money line, you earned it.

The Bad: Texas A&M vs. North Carolina (Under 65.5): After three quarters, these two teams combined to score 37 points. Given the way this game was moving, this felt like a surefire win. No drama. No issues. Then the fourth quarter happened. Texas A&M and North Carolina combined to score 31 points in the final 15 minutes, with A&M doing the heavy lifting. Sometimes, it happens that fast.

It's time. 

Since there is only one game, I am picking a side, total and a handful of game props below using point spreads provided by DraftKings. 

Regardless of how these plays work out, thank you for reading, commenting and sharing these pieces throughout the year. It was a different type of season, but your support is much appreciated. (Also, I am hoping to deliver you offseason future picks as well. We aren't done here.)

In the meantime, there's work to be done. Let's get to it.

Alabama (-7.5) vs. Ohio State

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

Let's start with the line movement. The line opened around a touchdown, jumped above eight and has since come back down. That movement makes sense considering the uncertainty surrounding Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields coupled with Alabama's regular-season dominance. 

It's movement that doesn't shock or concern me. It's pretty normal. With that said, what Fields did while clearly injured was spectacular. And what running back Trey Sermon did over the past two games is something that will likely keep Nick Saban up at night. Ohio State is a really talented team. It's also one of the few rosters across the country that stacks up to Alabama athletically. Not many do. 

But this is not Alabama. And as great as Ohio State was against Clemson, a few glaring concerns surfaced. The Buckeyes secondary has issues. The defensive line delivered a magnificent effort against the Tigers that helped mask these issues, but I don't like this matchup. 

Can the Ohio State defensive line get enough push to mask these efforts again? It's possible. But the Alabama offensive line is a much better group—a unit crowned the best in college football—and I just don't expect the Buckeyes to disrupt the same way. 

To me, the Alabama offense is just too deep and versatile. It isn't just Heisman winner DeVonta Smith or quarterback Mac Jones. It's running back Najee Harris. It's Jahleel Billingsley, who looks like a future star at tight end. It's emerging wideout John Metchie III.  

And... could it also be Jaylen Waddle? Remember him?

One of the most electric football players suffered an ankle injury in late October after an electric start. Waddle has since returned to practice, according to Nick Saban, and potentially could play in this game. 

Whether he plays or not is still to be determined. And in picking the Crimson Tide, I am not banking on it one way or another. I do believe even the possibility is having an impact. Not on the game—at least not yet—but the preparation and the buildup.  

I don't foresee this being a blowout. Ohio State is extremely talented and more than capable of posting points and staying competitive. It just feels like Alabama's historic explosiveness will be too much to match. 

That isn't a hot take. Let's call it a lukewarm take. 

And now, let's talk about the total. 

Alabama vs. Ohio State (Under 75.5) 

John Bazemore/Associated Press

There will be points. Plenty of them. I just told you why I'm concerned about Ohio State's secondary, and there will be fireworks as a result. But I also could see this game being slightly less chaotic than this enormous total would indicate.  

Notre Dame showcased a fascinating plan to slow Alabama down. The Irish limited drives, held onto the ball and at least limited what the opposing offense could do by not giving the ball back. I am curious if Ohio State head coach Ryan Day does the same. While he does have an offense that can go plenty fast, it wouldn't shock me to see this game slow down. Both offenses would benefit from it.

There is an uneasiness about going against two teams with such explosive pieces. And yet, I think the flow of this game will generate slightly less scoring than anticipated. 

I'm not saying we're going to be looking at a 24-7 final. These offenses can and will cook at some point. But the under will cash. 

As someone who thrives picking overs, that's a painful admission to make. In this instance, however, it's the right one.

Other Plays on the Card 

Roger Steinman/Associated Press

Alabama (-3.5 FIRST HALF) vs. Ohio State

I don't believe this is an instance where the Crimson Tide will start slow. In fact, this is a team that tends to start fast. Outside of its game against Arkansas late in the year, which morphed into a blowout in short order, Alabama has come out of the gates quickly. I expect that to be the case once again. 

Ohio State Under 33.5 Points 

This bet aligns nicely with under play. And yes, it feels like a bit of a gut check given how many fantastic pieces Ohio State has to work with on offense. But I think Alabama will do enough defensively to limit the production and damage.

And with that, given the way all these bets sync up, a final score prediction:

Alabama 41, Ohio State 27.

Adam Kramer covers college football for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @KegsnEggs. Lines accurate as of 4 p.m. ET Wednesday.

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