Ohio State vs. Alabama: Latest Odds Advice for CFP National Championship 2021
The Alabama Crimson Tide typically play in close games in the College Football Playoff National Championship.
Nick Saban's program won its two titles in the playoff era by a combined eight points. One of its two title-game defeats was by four points.
Alabama sits as a 7.5-point favorite over the Ohio State Buckeyes for the January 11 title clash at Hard Rock Stadium.
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Based on Alabama's track record in three of its four National Championships and Ohio State's offensive performance at the Sugar Bowl, the pick that may make the most sense is for the Buckeyes to cover.
National Championship Odds
Spread: Alabama (-7.5)
Over/Under: 75.5
Moneyline: Alabama (-305; bet $305 to win $100); Ohio State (+235; bet $100 to win $235)
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Odds Advice
Alabama was a covering machine until it reached the most difficult part of its schedule.
The Crimson Tide failed to cover in the SEC Championship Game and Rose Bowl. They were favored by more than 15 points in each contest.
Ohio State has the potential to put up a similar performance as the Florida Gators had on December 19.
The Buckeyes have the offensive firepower to keep up with the trio of Mac Jones, Najee Harris and DeVonta Smith, which could push the contest toward a high total.
Justin Fields is coming off the best performance of his career, as he threw for 385 yards and six touchdowns. The return of Chris Olave aided Ohio State's big-play potential and that showed on the 56-yard touchdown pass in the third quarter that the wide receiver hauled in in stride.
Olave is the best counter to Smith that the Buckeyes have, and if he can break down the Alabama secondary, the Buckeyes have a good chance to remain within one score.
In the SEC Championship Game, Kyle Trask had two touchdown throws of 50 or more yards to Kadarius Toney and Trevon Grimes. If Ohio State exploits the same weaknesses with Olave and Garrett Wilson, it should be competitive for all four quarters.
Alabama's defensive performance in some games against tougher offenses suggests the Buckeyes will remain within one or two scores.
In a three-game stretch in October, the Crimson Tide allowed 24 points each to the Texas A&M Aggies and Georgia Bulldogs and let up 48 points to the Ole Miss Rebels.
After the Georgia win, the Alabama defense held six straight opponents under 20 points, but five of those teams were unranked.
Ohio State has not had a shutdown defense against Top 25 foes either, as it conceded over 20 points in three of its four Top 25 matchups.
That trend should continue, with an offense that averages 48.2 points and 535 yards per game lining up across from the Buckeyes defense.
Alabama and Ohio State will score a good amount of points, but it may be difficult for them to hit the over if a few defensive stops are made.
A single National Championship in the playoff era featured more than 70 points. That was Alabama's 45-40 win over the Clemson Tigers in 2016.
The six previous title games averaged 64.8 points per game, so it could take two extraordinary offensive efforts for Monday's participants to eclipse the current total of 75.5 points.
The lines could be altered by kickoff in six days, but for now, the best bet appears to be the under. If you believe Ohio State can keep pace with Alabama's offense, it would be worth betting on the Buckeyes against the spread with the Crimson Tide getting slightly more than a touchdown on the spread.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.
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.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
