UFC White House: B/R Staff Predictions
It's really happening. After a year of speculation and debate, there will be UFC fights on the White House lawn on Sunday.
Whether this should be happening at all is a question fans can debate at their leisure for as long as it suits them, but it is happening, and those who can separate politics from sport are in for a treat. A super-sized, all-wheel drive, red white and blue American treat.
We're talking about absolutely elite MMA action.
The main event will see Ilia Topuria, one of the greatest fighters competing today, attempt to defend his lightweight belt against a man whose skill is only surpassed by his propensity for violence: Justin Gaethje.
The co-main event, meanwhile, will see former light heavyweight and middleweight champ Alex Pereira attempt to make history by winning gold in a third division at the expense of France's Ciryl Gane in an interim heavyweight title fight.
When the White House card was first broached, U.S. President Donald Trump promised title fights from top to bottom. That was never realistic, or at least not for a UFC card that could actually be assembled. Even so, the White House show is still loaded with elite MMA matchups.
Before we get to the title fights, we'll see former bantamweight champ Sean O'Malley take on Aiemann Zahabi. We'll also see Derrick Lewis—one of Trump's favorites—take on a red-hot contender in Josh Hokit.
Politics notwithstanding, it is as good a lineup of fights as you will find without involving your favorite Marvel or DC characters.
Here's how Lyle Fitzsimmons and Tom Taylor of the B/R combat sports team see things shaking out.
Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje
1 of 7
Lyle Fitzsimmons
I've been watching MMA in one form or another for a couple decades and following it closely for the last 10 years or so. And I'll say it here: Topuria is as good as I've seen.
And while I'll concede Gaethje is rugged and durable and knocks out pretty much everything he hits cleanly, I'll contend just as loudly that he's way out of his depth here.
Topuria is faster, sharper and packs a pretty good punch of his own. So, while he's not as likely to end a fight in one shot, the beating he'll put on "The Highlight" will be just as devastating as the face-plant Max Holloway laid on him at UFC 300.
Another high-profile steppingstone on the way to the Hall of Fame.
Prediction: Topuria by TKO, Rd. 3
Tom Taylor
I'll come right out and say it: I have a strong suspicion Topuria is the best fighter of all time.
I have always believed he's special, but I am still trying to hoist my jaw off the floor after watching him knock out Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira in succession. He is doing things I've only seen Georges St-Pierre and Demetrious Johnson do, but better.
I want to give Gaethje his due. He is one of the best lightweights ever, and probably the most reliable source of entertainment in our sport's history. Unfortunately, he's also vastly inferior to the last three men Topuria just fought—and beat.
At this point, he's cannon fodder for the Spaniard. Yes, he has power. Yes, he can allegedly wrestle (though this is starting to feel like myth-making, because we never see it). Yes, he's durable. None of this will save him on the White House lawn, though.
Gaethje's only hope of victory is landing a bomb mid-exchange, but it won't happen. Topuria has the best hands in the game, and more importantly, the best eyes. There's almost nothing he doesn't see coming. He is a viper, waiting to strike.
He'll let Gaethje build confidence for a minute or two, then he'll get his timing down, and knock his opponent completely unconscious.
It will all happen inside three minutes.
Prediction: Topuria by KO, Rd. 1
Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane
2 of 7
Lyle Fitzsimmons
Ciryl Gane and I have something of a checkered history.
I was all-in on his unique skill set from the moment he outclassed Derrick Lewis five years ago and was in an "I'm smarter than the room" minority when I picked him to beat Jon Jones when "Bones" returned at heavyweight in 2023.
That didn't work out so well. And I held a grudge into the Tom Aspinall fight last fall, picking against Gane even though I thought going in that he had the style to win.
Have I learned my lesson? Doubtful. Because I'm saying the Frenchman comes in prepared for the spotlight and handles "Poatan" to stake a claim as the company's top big man.
Prediction: Gane by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor
I have never understood the Gane hype. I keep hearing how fast this guy is, and how good his footwork is. Problem is, I grew up on Cain Velasquez, Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem and Fedor Emelianenko. They were all visibly faster than Gane, and far more fluid on the feet.
Respectfully, he looks like a dope when these are the heavyweights you're accustomed to. Sorry, but it's true.
Now I'll acknowledge the obvious: Gane is obviously a lot bigger than Pereira and more accustomed to eating heavyweight punches. He might actually hit harder too. He's got some advantages.
At the same time, he's also a guy who was badly hurt by Tai Tuivasa. The truth is that his muay thai background—yes, the one Joe Rogan drools over—is vastly overrated. It is a total farce when compared to Pereira's background in the kickboxing ring.
The truth is that Gane is a more rudimentary striker than anyone Pereira fought in Glory. He's totally out of his depth here.
The Brazilian takes his time, but makes this look extremely easy—and even embarrassing.
Prediction: Pereira by TKO, Rd. 2
Sean O'Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi
3 of 7
Lyle Fitzsimmons
I've been a card-carrying member of the "Suga Sean" fan club since he crashed the Contender Series party nine years ago, but even his fullest-throated supporters must be wondering what's left after eight brutal rounds with Merab Dvalishvili.
A return defeat of Song Yadong looks even better today than it did when it happened five months ago, and there's plenty of reason to believe O'Malley can thrive against an opponent like Zahabi, who's unlikely to push things to the ground.
Still, I'll be tentative for every moment it lasts. And unless he changes my mind with a spectacular KO, I'll not be expecting another belt-copping anytime soon.
Prediction: O'Malley by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor
This one is easy for me. Zahabi has looked good lately, but he's 38, and his best victories are a decision win over Marlon "Chito" Vera and a dubious decision defeat over a fading legend in Jose Aldo.
He's durable, but he's slow. His striking is OK, but he has no power.
O'Malley, meanwhile, is a world-class fighter, in spite of his losses to Dvalishvili. He probably doesn't have the power to knock the Canadian out cold, but he has the speed and skill to style on him for three rounds.
Prediction: O'Malley by unanimous decision
Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis
4 of 7
Lyle Fitzsimmons
People can take it or leave it when it comes to Josh Hokit and his loudmouth persona.
I choose the latter. But the guy's as tough as it gets, as he showed by coming back from the brink to outpoint Curtis Blaydes in a heavyweight free-for-all two months ago.
Lewis, meanwhile, is still living on the hype of his own long-faded high-level run, but he's been finished four times in a 3-5 stretch since the start of 2022.
Unless he's the first one to land in this pier-six brawl, he seems doomed to another early shower.
Prediction: Hokit by TKO, Rd. 2
Tom Taylor
Like most people with taste, I find Hokit insufferable. That said, I also recognize how good he is. He looked incredible in his recent decision win over Blaydes, and Lewis—despite beating Blaydes once—is a massive step down in competition from there.
I liken Lewis to Bob Sapp at this point. He's an iconic heavyweight, and his record for most KOs in UFC history is amazing, but he's clearly checked out now. He's looking for pay checks and trying to avoid concussions. That is frankly the approach most fighters should take, but it doesn't make for good TV.
Lewis wilts the moment Hokit starts applying pressure, even with his buddy, Donald, watching.
Prediction: Hokit by KO, Rd. 1
Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy
5 of 7
Lyle Fitzsimmons
Michael Chandler's inglorious claim to fame in the UFC is that he was the first in a recent run of champions from other promotions to make the jump and not measure up.
Oh sure, "Iron" Mike makes for interesting fights even when he loses. But those losses have piled up in enough numbers lately—three in a row and five of six—to make me wonder if he's got enough left in the tank to beat anything more than token opposition.
Mauricio Ruffy is on a higher plane than that, and it says here he gets it done in a firefight.
Prediction: Ruffy by TKO, Rd. 1
Tom Taylor
Poor, poor Michael Chandler. Whichever version of Conor McGregor is returning against Max Holloway this July would probably knock him out.
Ruffy, who is far younger and more dangerous than McGregor, will definitely get it done. It will probably be something flashy too. Call it a spinning kick, and a bad night for Team America.
Prediction: Ruffy by KO, Rd. 2
Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus
6 of 7
Lyle Fitzsimmons
The Bo Nickal Coronation Train was rolling along just fine until it ran into an obstacle named Reinier de Ridder and was forced to return to the shop for some adjustments.
Nickal regathered some mojo with a finish of Rodolfo Vieira last November and remains the A-side against Kyle Daukaus, who'd strayed dangerously close to journeyman territory with a 2-4 UFC start before finding himself with six straight wins that have included five finishes.
The Philly guy has the statistical edge when it comes to length of win streak, but, to these eyes anyway, the world-class pedigree still belongs to Nickal.
Prediction: Nickal by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor
I don't understand how this boring and mostly irrelevant matchup ended up on this White House card.
Nickal has great accolades, but he is a novelty in MMA, as De Ridder clearly showed. Daukaus is a great fighter too, but he's in his second run with the UFC. He's hardly a world-beater himself.
Neither of these guys will spend more than a few months in the middleweight top 15, but Nickal will win this one with a boring decision that makes people question the taste of the people who put this card together.
Someone wake me up when Ruffy is fighting.
Prediction: Nickal by unanimous decision
Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia
7 of 7
Lyle Fitzsimmons
He's as legit as legit gets, but I've come down with a serious case of Diego Lopes fatigue.
So, while the only guy to whom he's lost in the last 36 months is among the best to ever do it at 145 pounds, my internal prediction apparatus is telling me it's time to move on.
And it's not just a shot-in-the-dark option. Garcia has been on quite a run of his own while finishing six of his seven straight wins since an inglorious octagonal start. Given that momentum, I'll suggest he lands hard and often enough to win over 15 minutes against a guy who's shown no real vulnerability to being stopped.
Prediction: Garcia by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor
It sucks to be Lopes right now. He was granted two title shots against Alexander Volkanovski, and after losing both, seems to have been counted out by most fans.
The thing is, he's clearly still one of the best featherweights alive right now. Yes, Steve Garcia's streak of first-round KOs is amazing, and he's actually one of my fave fighters to watch right now, but he's gonna get sucked into a war with Lopes, and if it lasts more than a round, he'll lose. Lopes is just way sharper overall.
The Brazilian-born Mexican eats some bombs, sends a few back, then grounds the fight with decisive results.
Prediction: Lopes by submission, Rd. 2
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