OSS: What Oregon Needs to Do this Weekend to Start Sniffing the Roses

Only two games remain between the Oregon Ducks and their fifth appearance in the Rose Bowl.  However, the two games left on the schedule may be the most challenging games the Ducks have played all season. 

This Saturday, the Ducks travel to Tucson, to take on an angry Arizona Wildcat team that is coming off a tough loss to the Cal Bears.

Arizona quarterback Nick Foles has been efficient throughout the course of the season, but recently he has shown some cracks, which have left people wondering if Arizona has already played their best football. 

You can bet that the Wildcats will give Oregon all they can handle on a night when ESPN’s College Gameday will be in Tucson for the first time ever. 

Some Duck fans believe that Arizona Stadium has been a house of horrors for past Oregon teams, but dating back to the 1999 season, Oregon has won four of five in Tucson.

On their past two trips to Arizona, Oregon left with a different starting quarterback then they came in with though.  Kellen Clemens broke his ankle in 2005, and Dennis Dixon finished off his ACL (which was actually torn against Arizona State in the previous game). 

Duck fans shudder at the thought of losing another quarterback in Tucson, but they should really be worrying about Arizona's Nick Foles. 

Foles has the third highest passer rating in the conference, and also owns the second highest completion percentage in the Pac-10.  His offensive lineman have treated him well, as he is the least sacked quarterback in the conference, having gone down only five times in 2009.

On the other hand, the Ducks have to like the fact that they will not play anymore big, bruising running backs.  Arizona has some playmakers back there, but no one with the size of  Toby Gerhart.  Nic Grigbsy and Keola Antolin lead the Arizona rushing attack.  The combo gave the Ducks trouble last year, rushing for 199 yards on 52 carries.

To me, it is not a matter of whether Arizona can slow Oregon’s offense, but whether Oregon can slow Arizona’s offense. 

People will look at the Stanford game and say the Ducks defense is vulnerable, but the Cardinal played a virtually flawless game.  However, Arizona has shown weaknesses as well, giving up 4.4 yards per carry last week to a Cal team without star running back Jahvid Best. 

But like most other match-ups between good teams, turnovers will be key.  The Wildcats are even in turnover margin through this point of the season, while Oregon is plus-four.

To win this game, Oregon must have strong performances by LaMichael James and Jeremiah Masoli.  If the Ducks aren’t on early, and they can’t stop Arizona, it will be a very similar game to the loss they incurred on The Farm two weeks ago.

Jeremiah Masoli has thrown only one interception in conference play, and the Ducks as a whole have been able to hold onto the ball relatively well. That strong play must continue Saturday.

One final thing to keep an eye on Saturday night is how Jeremiah Masoli throws the ball.  At different points during the Arizona State game last Saturday, it seemed like Masoli lost focus.  Masoli has struggled at times this season on certain possessions. 

From what I have seen, if he misses his first pass on a drive it seems to mess up his rhythm.  The encouraging thing is that even if he struggles on a drive, he can turn it on the next time he comes on the field.

To win this one, the Ducks have to confuse Foles with their zone blitzes and hope that he makes some mistakes.  With a nationwide audience, we can expect some fireworks in Tucson on Saturday night.

If the Ducks escape Tucson, it sets up an intriguing Civil War with Oregon State, with the winner heading to the Rose Bowl.  It would be the first time since 1964, when the Beavers beat the Ducks 7-6 and eventually lost to Michigan in the Rose bowl 34-7, that a trip to Pasadena is on the line in the Civil War.