B/R Experts Answer Biggest College Football Questions for Week 10
Week 10 of the 2020 season is where the rubber meets the road in the race for the College Football Playoff.
Maybe Saturday's battle between No. 1 Clemson and No. 4 Notre Dame ends up not making much of a difference come December, though it's hard to imagine the Fighting Irish bouncing back to reach the playoff if they can't win this home game against a backup quarterback. (A very, very good backup quarterback, but still.)
The SEC East battle between No. 5 Georgia and No. 8 Florida is a much bigger deal, as the loser will be, for all intents and purposes, eliminated from both the SEC championship and national championship pictures.
If No. 13 Indiana improves to 3-0 with a win over No. 23 Michigan, will it be time to start taking the Hoosiers seriously as a CFP candidate?
And before all those Saturday games transpire, No. 9 BYU has a massive opportunity to show it belongs in the conversation with a Friday night game against No. 21 Boise State.
What are we expecting to happen in those four key showdowns? How many unranked-over-ranked upsets are lurking? And just how mercilessly is Justin Fields going to destroy Rutgers?
Bleacher Report's college football experts—David Kenyon, Adam Kramer, Kerry Miller, Joel Reuter and Brad Shepard—have predictions for each of those questions and more in advance of a huge weekend of collegiate pigskin.
No. 1 Clemson at No. 4 Notre Dame: Who You Got?
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Brad Shepard
Well, Trevor Lawrence being out certainly evens the playing field a bit, doesn't it?
No matter how much of a subplot that was last weekend against Boston College, his absence was not the reason the Tigers fell behind. The young defense has buckled down and had big moments, but that side of the ball is every bit as maddening as it is magnificent. That's what happens when you're playing so many underclassmen. And taking those underclassmen up against a veteran quarterback like Ian Book will be a challenge.
It's nice for the Fighting Irish that some new playmakers have emerged (along with RB Kyren Williams), like freshmen tight end Michael Mayer and running back Chris Tyree. However, I'm still not convinced they have enough explosiveness to hang on that side of the ball. The competition certainly elevates for D.J. Uiagalelei, who is going against a strong, fast defense. His big arm will still make plays, though, and this is a game where Travis Etienne will take over in the fourth quarter.
It's going to be a slugfest, but I think Dabo Swinney's team has too much talent, and they will rally again. I'll take Clemson 31-23.
Kerry Miller
Let's not bury the lede: I'm picking Notre Dame to win this game—by a final score of 28-24, if you want specifics.
Lawrence's absence is obviously a major factor, but it's not the only one.
Even though Notre Dame has yet to face a single opponent that currently has a winning record, I have a little more faith in the Fighting Irish defense than I have in Clemson's. While I absolutely love me some Etienne, I believe Notre Dame will do a better job of establishing and defending the run, which is going to put even more pressure on Uiagalelei's arm in just his second career start.
Moreover, I have more faith in Notre Dame to avoid back-breaking mistakes, in part because of that experience factor at quarterback. Ian Book hasn't thrown an interception since Sept. 12, and the Fighting Irish have averaged roughly 37 penalty yards per game. Clemson has allowed a defensive touchdown in each of its last two games and commits more than 52 yards' worth of penalties per game. That's the type of stuff that will determine the result of this one.
And then there's the time and location of the game. Clemson is accustomed to playing in balmy weather. Even if it's not some miserable situation with flurries and subzero wind chill, a November night in Indiana is going to be quite the adjustment from playing at noon in South Carolina.
Add it all up and, though I believe Clemson is the better team at full strength on a neutral field, Notre Dame gets the W.
Does No. 5 Georgia or No. 8 Florida Win the Colossal SEC East Clash?
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David Kenyon
One better performance against Missouri isn't enough evidence for me to believe Florida's defense is figuring it out. However, if the Gators are actually better on that side of the ball than their "extremely not good" start to 2020, they should be in a decent position this weekend.
Without question, a significant part of that is Georgia's absences. The Dawgs will be without starting tackle Julian Rochester and top safety Richard LeCounte III. Both wideout George Pickens and defensive tackle Jordan Davis will likely either be out or limited, too.
Georgia's success is largely dependent on the defense, so having a shorthanded unit is a problem.
Quarterback Kyle Trask and this UF offense have thrived, especially with the emergence of receiver Kadarius Toney. After three seasons of exciting but inconsistent play, Toney has emerged as a reliable difference-maker in 2020. He's topped 100 all-purpose yards and scored at least once in all four games.
I'll lean on Trask, Toney and this offense for a 27-20 Florida win.
Kerry Miller
I don't have a dog in this fight, but I have been looking forward to this game more so than any other for months.
The winner of this matchup has won the SEC East in 10 of the past 14 years, and the loser of this game has not won the division since 2005. Considering every other team in the East is currently saddled with a losing record, it's just about a done deal that this game determines who faces Alabama in the SEC championship in six weeks.
And even though I absolutely hate the idea of picking Stetson Bennett over Kyle Trask, I've got Georgia winning 30-27.
The Bulldogs defense is just too good. Playing at Alabama was a significant outlier, but they have held four of five opponents to 15 or fewer first downs and allowed a grand total of three touchdowns on defense in those four games.
Florida's offense is better than what Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky or Tennessee brought to the table, but it's neither as good nor as multidimensional as Alabama's offense. The Gators will get a couple of touchdowns, but I don't see Trask having anything close to his usual field day.
It's the 30 in my prediction that probably needs more justification than the 27, though, considering Georgia is only averaging 3.0 offensive touchdowns per game. I just cannot put any faith in Florida's defense, and I do expect the Georgia defense to force at least one critical turnover that either immediately results in points or at least sets the Bulldogs up with a short field.
Will No. 9 BYU Survive Its First Major Test at No. 21 Boise State?
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Adam Kramer
First and foremost, because I care about you all, let's make sure you know when this glorious football game will be played. Not Saturday. No, this massive tussle will be played at 9:45 p.m. ET on Friday.
That's fantastic, because this game deserves its own platform rather than getting lost in the madness of a day featuring Clemson-Notre Dame and Florida-Georgia.
The small sample size (two games) makes the Broncos a tough team to read, although they've scored a combined 91 points so far—a good sign with a tough team coming to town.
Still, I like BYU. I don't love BYU, and I think Boise State is very capable of pulling this off. But I love what I've seen from Zach Wilson and the rest of the pieces on that offense, and I just don't know if Boise State has the firepower to keep up.
The stakes here are rather mighty. BYU can keep its dark-horse playoff hopes alive with a win. Wilson can stay in the Heisman conversation. A big performance from the team and a big performance by Wilson can go a long way, and I think we'll get just that.
Kerry Miller
BYU has scored at least 41 points in six of its seven games. Even in the exception to that rule, the Cougars racked up 470 yards and were never really in danger of losing to UTSA. Wilson is putting up Heisman-worthy numbers (198.7 passer efficiency rating; 26 total touchdowns in seven games), the rushing attack has been potent, and the defense has suffocated a bunch of inferior foes.
But how good is Boise State? And is quarterback Hank Bachmeier going to be available for this one after missing last week's matchup with Air Force?
The Broncos comfortably won that game, but not before giving up 415 rushing yards and 30 points. Not exactly a confidence-boosting performance by the defense six days before hosting one of the most potent offenses in the nation. The passing defense numbers (80.5 yards allowed per game) look sensational, but they've faced a triple-option offense and a Utah State offense that looks just plain awful in its attempt to adjust to life without Jordan Love at QB. Facing BYU will be quite the increase in difficulty level.
I have the Cougars winning 41-38. Whether it's Bachmeier or Jack Sears at quarterback, Boise State's offense will be the toughest test BYU's defense has faced to date. But I believe Wilson and Co. will do their usual thing in a high-scoring affair.
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Does No. 13 Indiana Snap Its 24-Game Losing Streak Against No. 23 Michigan?
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Joel Reuter
With an upset win over Penn State and a road victory over Rutgers to start the season, Indiana has climbed to its highest spot in the AP Poll since 1987.
But is it a mirage?
The Hoosiers have come away with five interceptions during their 2-0 start, but the defensive front has allowed 185.5 rushing yards per game. That could be an issue against Michigan. The Wolverines are putting up 202.5 rushing yards per contest and have a dual-threat quarterback under center in Joe Milton who could cause problems.
Michigan passed all over Indiana last year in a 39-14 victory when Shea Patterson threw for 366 yards and five touchdowns. This could be a more run-heavy approach that leads the Wolverines to the win. This is a better Hoosiers team, but Michigan will come out on top behind a breakout game from Milton in his third career start.
Kerry Miller
This game is going to come down to turnovers and whether Indiana (which has forced six through two games) can befuddle a Michigan offense that has yet to cough up the ball once.
Because without those game-changing plays, I can't see the Hoosiers outdueling the Wolverines.
In the first half against Penn State, Indiana had one interception result in a drive that began inside the PSU 40 and another inside the PSU 5. Similarly against Rutgers, second-quarter interceptions gave the Hoosiers the ball at the Scarlet Knights' 6- and 28-yard lines. It's a lot easier to win games when you're getting gifts like that.
Michigan will do a better job of avoiding those disasters, though, and then the ground game is where this one is going to get away from Indiana.
Through two games, Michigan has outgained its opponents by 153 rushing yards, while Indiana has been outgained by 221 rushing yards. The Wolverines are going to stifle Stevie Scott and force Michael Penix Jr. to do a lot of throwing. And provided they don't inexplicably let Milton throw the ball 51 times again, they should salt the game away with the run.
How Many Unranked Teams Will Defeat Ranked Teams in Week 10?
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Joel Reuter
The four ranked Big 12 teams are all facing unranked opponents. The way things have played out in that conference this season, it's tempting to predict that all four of them will lose. Realistically, though, Oklahoma is going to demolish Kansas, and Iowa State should have no problem at home against Baylor.
The other two games are ripe for an upset, though.
Oklahoma State plays enough defense that it should be able to control its matchup with Kansas State, provided the Cowboys protect the football after turning it over four times last week. The Wildcats will keep it within two touchdowns, but OK State will get the win.
That leaves No. 22 Texas playing at home against West Virginia as the most likely upset in the Big 12. The Mountaineers have the best defense in the conference. and that doesn't bode well for a Longhorns team that was outgained 530-287 in total yards in their upset of Oklahoma State last week. The Longhorns' return to the AP Poll will be short-lived.
Outside of the Big 12, the only clear potential upset is No. 25 Liberty taking on Virginia Tech as the Flames look to remain undefeated. Liberty quarterback Malik Willis is the real deal, and he could be the difference in a matchup of offenses that love to run the football. The Flames will stay unbeaten and pull off the upset of a quality Power Five team.
Long story short: One unranked team will defeat a ranked opponent this week.
Kerry Miller
Virginia Tech is going to beat No. 25 Liberty, so that's one. I do think the Flames will do a fair amount of scoring against a mediocre Hokies defense, but I also think quarterback Hendon Hooker and running back Khalil Herbert are going to run all over Liberty's defense.
But that might be it.
No. 7 Texas A&M is going to have its hands full with a road game against South Carolina, but the Aggies ought to survive. I could also see No. 22 Texas losing at home to West Virginia, as the Mountaineers have won three of their four road games against the Longhorns in the past decade. However, I suspect Sam Ehlinger will carry Texas to victory.
The biggest uncertainty on the board is Arizona State at No. 20 USC. It's a 9 a.m. kickoff in California, neither team has played yet, and these might be the two best teams in the Pac-12's South Division. Anything is possible, though I'm officially picking USC to win by a slim margin.
(Let the record show that I was going to pick Purdue to upset No. 10 Wisconsin if that game hadn't been canceled, but alas.)
What Is Justin Fields' Line vs. Rutgers? Does He End Week as Heisman Favorite?
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Adam Kramer
Ohio State is nearly a 40-point favorite against Rutgers, which tells you what the oddsmakers believe is going to happen. And if the game plays out that way—or something close to it—Justin Fields will likely be at the center of a lot of it.
Through two contests, including a road game at Penn State, Fields has scored seven touchdowns. Even more impressive? He's completing 87.3 pecent of his passes.
He looks polished. Accurate. Elusive. Frankly, he looks superb. And he will remain as such at home against one of the easiest opponents on Ohio State's schedule.
I'm seeing this kind of game: 325 yards passing, 49 yards rushing and five touchdowns.
Fields is already near the top of the Heisman standings, depending on where you shop. I think after this week, even though it's only Rutgers, that changes. Alabama quarterback Mac Jones is off this week on a bye. Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence won't play against Notre Dame due to a positive COVID test. It feels like the perfect storm for Fields to assert himself as a favorite.
The movements will be small, but the performance should be large enough to get it done. And with a pretty favorable schedule ahead, there might be no looking back.
Kerry Miller
Most Heisman winners have that one game early in the season against an overmatched opponent where they absolutely go off.
In September 2019, Joe Burrow annihilated Vanderbilt for 398 yards and six touchdowns. The previous September, Kyler Murray had a combined total of 477 passing and rushing yards and seven touchdowns against Baylor. And in 2016, who can forget Lamar Jackson opening the year with eight touchdowns in a win over Charlotte?
This should be that game for Justin Fields.
Last year, Fields torched Rutgers for 305 yards and four touchdowns on just 19 pass attempts. And for all the things the Scarlet Knights are doing better than they did in 2019, their secondary is still quite suspect. Both Michigan State and Indiana had three passing touchdowns against Rutgers, and that's the bare minimum of expectations for Fields.
Forced to put numbers on it, I'm going to say Fields goes 25-of-33 for 395 yards and five touchdowns, plus a few rushing plays for 40 yards and a sixth score. And yes, he'll enter Week 11 as the singular front-runner. Maybe not by much. But with neither Mac Jones nor Trevor Lawrence playing this week, this is Fields' chance to surge ahead.
The Biggest Headline from Pac-12 Opening Weekend Will Be...?
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Brad Shepard
While one big headline is going to be about how many of the conference powerhouses have major quarterback issues (there should be a drop-off at Oregon, Washington and Utah), I believe the biggest headline will come from the USC-Arizona State game.
This game will feature a showdown between the conference's two best signal-callers, Kedon Slovis and Jayden Daniels, for an early leg up in the South Division. And I like coach Herm Edwards' team to come away with a win.
The biggest headline will be "What's wrong with USC?" However, I think the bigger takeaway will be just how good the Sun Devils are. Yes, they lost RB Eno Benjamin and WR Brandon Aiyuk, but Year 3 of the Edwards era still will showcase plenty of young offensive talent. ASU's defense has the horses in the secondary to hang with the Trojans receivers, too.
Arizona State is going to win the football game, and it will look good doing it.
Kerry Miller
I mean, the biggest headline is already that Cal had to cancel its game against Washington because of COVID-19 contact tracing from a positive test.
But among the five games that we think will be played this weekend, the biggest headline will be something along the lines of "Utah's Redshirt Senior Quarterback Drew Lisk Impresses in First Career Start."
Oregon is the favorite to win the Pac-12. USC is the top challenger to the Ducks. And then Utah is in sort of its own "might be a serious contender if it can withstand losing its star QB/RB combo from last season" tier. Opening the season against Arizona—which has had a mediocre-at-best secondary for the past few years—is a great opportunity for the Utes to find out whether Lisk is the answer or if they would be better off with one of their transfers (Jake Bentley or Cameron Rising).
I like Lisk's chances, though. He'll throw for around 250 yards and three touchdowns while putting Utah in the conversation for the conference title.
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