Predicting the Best 2020 NBA Free Agents Who Will Change Teams
This year's NBA free agency won't live up to the whirlwind we saw in 2019, and if several teams' hoarding of cap space for 2021 tells us anything, it's that the league believes there's more talent to be scooped up in that class than this one.
The 2020 class would look better if Anthony Davis, Brandon Ingram, Gordon Hayward, DeMar DeRozan, Mike Conley, Evan Fournier and Andre Drummond had realistic shots to relocate. But most of those guys will punt on free agency until next year by picking up player options (or not exercising an early termination option, in Conley's case).
Those who opt out, like AD, will only do so to re-sign larger, longer deals with their current teams. Ingram, a restricted free agent, is almost certainly sticking with the New Orleans Pelicans, who can match any offer sheet he signs.
That leaves us with strikingly few stars to choose from for this exercise. In some cases, the "best" free agents that may change teams might not even be starters.
We'll work with what we've got, though, highlighting the top players who seem most likely to be wearing different uniforms in 2020-21.
Fred VanVleet, Unrestricted
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If you're of the opinion that Anthony Davis and Brandon Ingram aren't leaving their current teams in free agency (which you should be), Fred VanVleet is the cream of the 2020 crop.
While the Toronto Raptors can use their Bird rights to exceed the salary cap with a massive offer for FVV, you'd have to assume an organization as well run as they have an upper limit they won't exceed.
Maybe the Raps will draw a bright line at four years and $85 million—a significant chunk of change, but short of the max. Even that might be too much. The Athletic's John Hollinger noted Toronto probably can't go beyond $20 million per year on VanVleet's next deal without compromising its 2021 plans.
That means there's a possibility one of the few teams with cap space, each of which has a less prudent recent spending history than Toronto, could wind up making a bigger, better offer. The Atlanta Hawks, Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks could all use VanVleet's combo-guard skills and two-way game. He'd be a particularly dynamite companion for Trae Young in Atlanta, where his defense and off-ball shooting would shine.
New York? Detroit? VanVleet would immediately become the best guard on either roster.
The smart money should be on VanVleet sticking with the Raptors. He'll have a better chance to win there than at any of his other possible destinations, and he knows he'll have a major role with plenty of supporting talent around him.
Then again, there's a difference between smart money and the most money. If we assume Toronto won't break the bank on a VanVleet max that compromises its ability to spend big in a much more consequential 2021 free-agent class, it creates the opportunity for others to swoop in with an offer too large for VanVleet to refuse.
It only takes one overzealous organization to nudge a free agent's salary beyond what the market expected. In a thin class where the fallback options are nowhere near as good as FVV, the Knicks, Hawks and Pistons are all good candidates to do just that.
Danilo Gallinari, Unrestricted
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Danilo Gallinari must have woken up most mornings last season in shock, wondering dazedly, "Am I really still in OKC?"
When he and Chris Paul came to the Oklahoma City Thunder via trade prior to the 2019-20 campaign, neither seemed long for the franchise. Gallinari, especially, profiled as a deadline flip. His expiring contract practically put him on a tee for a contender.
But the Thunder turned out to be pretty good, offers for Gallo weren't good enough, and so both he and CP3 lasted the season.
Now, Gallinari is an unrestricted free agent. Whether he signs outright with a team toting cap space or moves on via a sign-and-trade agreement to a contender, his days in OKC are almost assuredly done.
Heading into his age-32 season, Gallinari remains an efficient, plug-and-play offensive machine. He averaged 18.7 points per game last year, hit 40.5 percent of his threes and dipped under the 90 percent mark from the foul line (89.3 to be exact) for the first time since 2015-16.
Over the last two seasons, 70 players attempted a total of at least 1,500 shots. Gallo's 62.3 true shooting percentage slots him fourth in that group. That's volume and efficiency you expect from a top option, yet Gallinari has been perfectly happy playing second and third fiddle. He's a no-fuss bucket of the highest order.
The 12-year veteran may have to take a short-term deal because so many teams are prioritizing 2021 space, and we should probably price in some decline given his age.
There aren't many more reliable scoring forwards in the game, but Gallinari doesn't belong on a Thunder squad that'll start the rebuild it postponed a year ago.
Paul Millsap, Unrestricted
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Paul Millsap is one of two key forwards the Denver Nuggets could lose in free agency this offseason. The veteran lands here because, if given the choice, the Nuggets will surely spend more money and energy retaining the other, Jerami Grant.
Grant has a player option he'll likely decline, and the Nuggets have several reasons to make him the higher priority.
For one, Grant is 26 and fits more cleanly into the age range of Denver's stars. Nikola Jokic is 25, Jamal Murray is 23 and Michael Porter Jr. is 22. Millsap will turn 36 midway through next season. As a veteran leader on a minimum salary, it'd be perfectly reasonable to keep him around. But you'd have to think another team will come to him with the full mid-level exception of just under $10 million per season—a pay rate Denver would be unwise to match.
Millsap is a tough two-way player whose defensive positioning and intelligence have value anywhere. But he's aging and probably can't be counted on in a starter's role anymore. Last season, he logged just 24.3 minutes per game, his lowest average since 2007-08.
Grant is the more versatile defender and superior three-point shooter. He outperformed Millsap in the bubble and should be more productive than his frontcourt counterpart going forward. Not to be forgotten: Denver surrendered a first-round pick in the trade that brought Grant over from the Thunder. Teams don't tend to pay a price like that and let the acquired asset go for nothing.
The Hawks are familiar with Millsap's work and have eyes on making the playoffs this year. Maybe they'll be the ones to sign the 14-year vet away. If not them, someone will surely come with a larger role and fatter check than the Nuggets will want to offer.
The Nuggets and Millsap are fond of one another, and president of basketball operations Tim Connelly said in September that he'd like for Millsap to retire in Denver. Practicality has a way of overriding sentiment, though, and we should expect Millsap to move on as Grant stays put.
Justin Holiday, Unrestricted
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Three-and-D wings are in extreme demand, but this free-agent class' supply of them is woefully short. That's why, despite the Indiana Pacers' desire to retain him, Justin Holiday is a strong candidate to depart.
Though he averaged just 8.3 points per game this past season, Holiday proved he could play either forward spot and shot 40.5 percent from beyond the arc. That type of game plays anywhere.
Holiday, 31, has never logged two full consecutive seasons for the same team, so relocation is nothing new to him. It might be especially tough to leave the Pacers after he produced a career year in 2019-20 (while also getting to play with younger brother Aaron), but Holiday's nomadic career hasn't paid him well by NBA standards.
A player who's never made more than $5 million in a season, who also might never get another chance to lock in long-term money, would be foolish to turn down the largest possible offer.
Maybe that offer will come from the Pacers, who can use their MLE or non-Bird rights to keep Holiday around. But Indiana hasn't paid the luxury tax since 2006, and it will owe Victor Oladipo, Malcolm Brogdon, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner over $18 million apiece next season. Don't forget $11.8 million for T.J. Warren and $10.5 million for Jeremy Lamb.
With revenues sure to drop regardless of how the league structures the 2020-21 season, it seems safe to assume the Pacers will pinch pennies where they can.
Holiday will be coveted by several teams, and the Pacers may simply decide they're not willing to pay market rates.
Derrick Jones Jr., Unrestricted
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Derrick Jones Jr. has yet to demonstrate reliable three-point shooting, but he might still be the best free-agent flight risk among small forwards.
Supreme athleticism defines Jones, a nuclear dunker who, at 6'6", defends the rim better than many bigs and wreaks havoc at the top of a trapping zone scheme. If Jones leaves the Miami Heat, expect whichever team signs him to suddenly decide running loads of zone is a good idea.
Few players—wings especially—are good enough to influence a team's strategic leanings on D. Jones is one of them.
The Heat would like to have Jones back, but they're probably even more excited about using 2021 cap space on a marquee free agent. Keeping Jones could easily cost something close to the MLE for multiple seasons. Several teams should come with offers of that sort, and Miami could defensibly decide to keep its powder dry.
Jones' minutes declined in the bubble, and it seems fair to assume other Heat free agents like Jae Crowder and Goran Dragic are higher retention priorities. Those two have made their money already and should be more amenable to one-year balloon-payment deals with team options for 2020-21, while Jones Jr.'s focus should be on locking down multiple years and as much cash as possible, seeing as he's made less than $3 million for his career.
Airplane Mode won't be activated in Miami next year.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Basketball Insiders.
