Bowl Predictions 2020: Playoff Projections Heading into Week 9

Ohio State has entered the National Championship contenders chat after its performance against the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

The Big Ten kicked off the season in Week 8, and the conference's premier team showed why they have remained near the top of the polls in a 52-17 drubbing of Nebraska. Justin Fields picked up where he left off last season with a nearly flawless performance against the hapless Huskers, throwing for 276 yards and two touchdowns with just one incompletion.

Fellow playoff favorites Clemson and Alabama notched similarly impressive wins. Alabama mauled Tennessee 48-17 behind another strong performance from Mac Jones. Syracuse hung with Clemson for two-and-a-half quarters before the Tigers hit the gas to win 47-21.

With all three favorites enjoying strong showings, the big question in college football is who will step up to claim that coveted fourth playoff spot. As the picture becomes more clear with another gameweek, here's how the playoff spots and New Year's Six Bowls could play out.

Non-Playoff New Year's Six Bowls

Keith Srakocic/Associated Press

Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Miami
Orange Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Oregon
Peach Bowl: BYU vs. Florida

The battle for the fourth seed in the playoffs is shaping up to be one of survival and fortunate scheduling. Both Georgia and Notre Dame have strong cases to be considered front-runners for the spot, but both have the prospect of playing their strongest conference foe twice.

Georgia lost to Alabama in fairly convincing fashion, dropping a 41-27 game in Week 7. If they are able to win their division, something ESPN's Football Power Index gives them a 69.5 percent chance to do, they will get a rematch with Bama.

Notre Dame is in a similar situation. They are scheduled to play Clemson on Nov. 7, and Trevor Lawrence's status is up in the air after testing positive for COVID-19. The soonest he could be cleared to play is 10 days after the onset of his symptoms, so it's unclear whether his return will happen in time for the clash with the Irish.

Even without Lawrence, the Tigers still boast of the most comprehensive collections of talent in college football. Freshman quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei will have plenty of weapons to throw to, and they still have Travis Etienne to lean on.

If the Irish can't beat Clemson the first time around, they would not have much better a chance in a rematch in the ACC Championship Game.

So while Georgia and Notre Dame are among the best teams in the nation this year, their schedule plays out in a way they may be the most desirable options for the non-playoff New Year's Six Bowls.

The Group of Five automatic bid could well come down to the American Athletic Conference game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Memphis Tigers on Saturday.

Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State

John Raoux/Associated Press

The debate over the No. 1 team in these rankings is only going to get stronger if Alabama and Clemson continue to win.

Clemson has been the more complete team statistically. They have the top defense by Football Outsider's F/+ rankings. Alabama has been less dominant, and its defense is ranked 14th by F/+ and was exposed against Ole Miss earlier in October. However, the Crimson Tide's strength of schedule (14th) has been much more difficult than Clemson's (63rd).

That could be the difference, as it's hard to see an undefeated Alabama team with two wins over Georgia not getting the top seed.

As for the fourth seed, Oklahoma State is an under-the-radar candidate that could sneak into the spot. With Texas floundering and Oklahoma stumbling out of the gate, the Cowboys are the only undefeated team in the Big 12 and will play just one team (the Sooners) that ranks higher than them according to F/+.

Oklahoma State isn't the fourth-best team in the country. There aren't any numbers to support that. But the committee hasn't passed on an undefeated conference champion from one of the Power Five conferences yet. Mike Gundy's team is in a good position to do that.

Rose Bowl: No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Ohio State

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

The battle for the No. 1 spot is going to be critical. Nearly every analytic approach or eye test would tell fans the National Championship race will likely come down to Ohio State, Clemson and Alabama once again. The playoff mainstays are once again prepped for strong runs.

If this projection plays out, we will see Clemson and Ohio State engaged in a playoff game for the third time since 2016. The matchup would pit two of the top quarterback prospects for the 2021 NFL draft against each other once more in Lawrence and Fields.

Last season, the game was an instant classic, as Lawrence led the game-winning drive with under two minutes left to get to the National Championship.

Fields and Ohio State looked the part against Nebraska in their season opener. Clemson hasn't skipped a beat from last season, either. The Buckeyes are hoping to play eight games in eight weeks, but the Big Ten has already had to cancel one game. Wisconsin and Nebraska will not play Saturday because of a breakout in coronavirus cases.

One of the few Big Ten teams with the talent to beat Ohio State is on the schedule in Week 9 in Penn State. However, the Nittany Lions' loss to the Indiana Hoosiers doesn't inspire confidence that they can give Ryan Day's team a challenge.

The lack of sample size will be the only thing to keep Ohio State out of the No. 1 conversation, but the on-field results should make them a lock to get in the tournament.