Mississippi State Bulldogs Scheming To Upset No. 2 Alabama

A lot has been written over the past week about the impending matchup between the two SEC divisional champions; Alabama in the west and Florida in the east. But there is still yet much more football to be played and scores to settle.

While the SEC championship game is set in stone, records are on the line and a slip up by either team will significantly alter National Championship aspiration. The remaining games have even more significance because of the national rankings and undefeated regular seasons for both SEC schools.

Don't get caught looking ahead

The Mississippi State head coach would like nothing better than for the Alabama team to waltz into Starkville pumped with pride, looking ahead three games down the line. Regardless of the state of mind for the Alabama team, Dan Mullen will be ready with his Bulldogs; ready to bite.

Heaven forbid a comparison between Michael Vick and Dan Mullen but both have experience training dogs to fight. For Mullen, his Bulldogs are legal and they are getting meaner as the season progresses.

The Mississippi State offense has shown substantial improvement since last year. Yet their record sits at 4-5. Mullen, in his first year, will certainly not lead his team into the postseason with a bowl bid unless the team finishes with two out of three monstrous wins against Alabama, Arkansas or Ole Miss.

A betting man would say that a strong finish is very unlikely, but the head coach and his feisty Bulldogs expect nothing short of a two win finish against the remaining three west division teams. A win against the MSU Bulldogs in the next three weeks will be earned, not conceded.

MSU Offensive Productivity

Passing

Quarterback Tyson Lee boasts a 60 percent pass completion(112 of 189), but a quarterback rating of only 111.89 on the year. This is primarily because he has thrown only four touchdown passes against eleven interceptions.

Despite his rating, Lee is a legitimate pass threat and would love nothing more than to have a breakout game against the Tide.

In his two best games of the year, regarding pass efficiency, he threw very few passes but was extremely accurate. Against Auburn, Lee connected on 6 of 10 passes for 53 yards and one touchdown (139 rating). At Georgia Tech, he hit on 20 of 30 attempts for 278 yards (148 rating).

The Auburn game was early in the season, in fact Lee did not start the game as QB for the Bulldogs. He entered in relief of Chris Relf after the starter threw two costly interceptions. Midseason, against Georgia Tech, Lee had his best quarterback rating of the year, despite having one interception in the game.

Higher ranked defenses have stymied the veteran quarterback. Against LSU, Lee completed only 39 percent of his passes (15 of 38). The stingy Bengal Tigers defense picked off three of his passes in a hard fought, closely contested game.

Against Florida, Lee completed 15 of 23 passes (65 percent) but once again threw three interceptions, lowering what would have been an excellent rating against one of the toughest defenses in the nation ( finished with a 90.09 rating).

He followed up with a very good outing against Kentucky, completing 10 of 17 passes for 153 yards. But once again, the defense snatched two interceptions off the paw of the Bulldog quarterback. Despite the two errant throws, he finished with rating of 126.35 at game end.

Lee's favorite targets are RB Chad Bumphis (26 receptions) and WR Marcus Green (22 receptions). Bumphis and Green have combined for 554 yards and five touchdowns. O'Neal Wilder, Leon Berry and Christian Ducre each have more than ten receptions, and play significant roles in the Bulldog passing attack.

Rushing

The Bulldog rushing game is led by veteran Anthony Dixon. He surpassed the 1000 yard mark in the last outing against the Kentucky Wildcats, averages 5.5 yards per carry and has scored nine touchdowns.

Dixon has the Lion's share of carries for the MSU backfield, and is clearly the most productive scorer. Chris Relf is a dual threat and enters the game intermittently to relieve Tyson Lee. On the year, Relf has 43 carries for 292 yards and one TD, he averages 6.8 yards per carry.

Christian Ducre has 45 carries for 263 yards and one TD, averaging 5.8 yards per carry on the season. His best performance came against Houston, carrying the ball nine times for 87 yards (9.7 YPC). His lone touchdown came against Georgia Tech.

The Bulldog offense is averaging 26.8 point per game. With the exception of the Auburn game, each loss has been closely contested with the Bulldogs having a shot at the win in the fourth quarter of play. Four of the five losses have been by 11 points or less.

The win against Kentucky was the most complete game by the MSU offense. They totaled 493 yards, heavily weighted toward the rushing game. The backfield combined for a whopping 343 yards on the ground. Dixon managed 252 yards on 33 carries and scored two touchdowns.

On the season, Tyson Lee and Chris Relf have combined for 100 carries, 401 yards and three touchdowns. Relf is the greater run threat, chalking up 292 rushing yards. Together, they present a formidable challenge for the opposition defense, the first true dual threat challenge for the Crimson Tide in 2009.

MSU Defensive Statistics

The Bulldog defense has allowed only 24.6 points per game while the offense averages better than 26 points per game yet they more often are on the losing end by the time the game clock expires.

While the defense gives up better than 200 yards passing per game, they account for a total of 12 interceptions on the year. Moreover, those interceptions have been returned for 310 yards for an average of 25.8 yards per turnover. It can't be said that the defense has not given the offense opportunities.

In addition, the MSU defense has seven starters with more that 20 solo tackles, junior LB Chris White leads the team with 35 solo tackles and 21 assists. Senior LB Jamar Chaney is the overall leader with 29 solo tackles and 44 assists for a monster effort of 73 tackles on the year. He ranks 5th in the league in this category.

To put that into perspective, Rolando McClain has 34 solo tackles and 32 assists for a total of 66 tackles on the year. Chaney and White are gamers, with a nose for the ball and the courage to take the ball carrier to the ground on any given play.

Junior LB K.J. Wright is another defensive warrior, notching up 33 solo tackles and 32 assists for a total of 65 tackles on the year. The Bulldogs have nine other players on defense with eight or more solo tackles and greater than 20 assists.

True freshman Johnthan (not a misprint) Banks leads the secondary with four interceptions. Four other Bulldogs are credited with one or more interception, Broomfield (three), Mitchell (two), Chaney (two) and Anderson (one) pose a threat for the opposition.

Late in the second quarter, Johnthan Banks took a Tebow pass 100 yards for a score against the Gators and put the Bulldogs in position to compete against the No. 1 team in the nation.

Interestingly, the defense has forced 21 fumbles by the opposition yet have only recovered seven loose balls. They are giving themselves opportunities for sure, but the ball has not bounce their way enough times to make a big difference.

On the other hand, this statistic does indicate that the Bulldog defenders are hitting hard a jarring the ball loose, it is just a matter of time, statistically speaking, before the ball starts bouncing their way.

MSU Special Teams

The third phase of the game has neither helped nor hurt the Bulldogs in 2009, although they do have one touchdown on kickoff and on punt return for the year.

MSU punting ranks last in the league, only netting 32 yards per punt. They rank 9th (tied with UGA) in punt return yards allowed, opening the door for the Alabama return man, Javier Arenas.

The Bulldogs rank 8th in kickoff coverage, allowing the opponents offense to start, on average, near the 30 yard line. Placekicking duty is shared by Derek DePasquale (15-15 PAT) and Sean Breauchle (12-12 PAT). They have  combined for 13 of 17 field goals made and are perfect on the year on point after touchdown.

The Task for the Crimson Tusk

In order to walk away with a win, the easiest path for the Tide would be to take advantage of the MSU weaknesses in the kickoff and punt coverage phase of the game and to capitalize on turnovers.

If Tyson Lee remains true to form, when the defense is tough, interceptions will be available for the Alabama secondary. Ideally, the Tide will return one if not two interceptions for touchdowns, much like the Arkansas game from one year ago.

Special Teams and Defense should feast on the Bulldogs and score points. The Alabama offense should be the beneficiary of good field position all day long.

McElroy must remain efficient in the passing game and diminish mistakes. The MSU secondary has 11 picks of their own, one returned for TD against Florida, as stated earlier.

Run, Run, Run the ball, and run some more. Empty the backfield in this game. Eat the clock and rack up yards with Ingram, Richardson, Upchurch and Grant. While MSU has yields on average less than 170 rushing yards per game, it is the strength of the Alabama offense and should wear down the Bulldog defense, if they run with authority.

Establish the run and take what the defense will give in the passing game. It is time for Julio to have a two or three touchdown game but that won't happen unless the running game opens things up.

Once again, the expectation is for the game to remain close in the first half. If the Tide takes an early 20 point lead, the Bulldogs are finished. If that happens, the final score could be as bad as 45-10 in favor of the Tide. More likely, the score will be 31-6 with the Tide pulling away early in the second half.

For the Bulldogs to win, the Tide would have to come out flat and remain flat on offense for the entire first half. The capable Bulldog defense would need to pressure McElroy in a way they have not been able to pressure opposition quarterbacks up to this point in the season. It is possible, but not probable.

That scenario, combined with turnovers favoring the Bulldogs and points resulting from turnovers could kill Bama hopes of an undefeated season.

A score of 17-13 in favor of the Bulldogs would drop Alabama out of contention for a National title no matter what happens in Atlanta. Alabama must win this game at all costs. For their own confidence and for the confidence of the BCS voters.

Yea, Alabama, Go teach the Bulldogs to behave. RTR