Triple Crown 2020: Predictions for Tiz the Law After Belmont Stakes
June 20, 2020
Tiz the Law entered the Belmont Stakes as the clear favorite and defeated the nine other horses in the field of the Triple Crown race Saturday at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York.
A dominant performance for the -120 favorite (bet $120 to win $100) created more optimism that the New York-bred horse—a winner in five of his six career starts—can become the 14th Triple Crown winner and first since Justify in 2018.
The Belmont Stakes was the first leg of the Triple Crown this year because of an adjusted schedule due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which forced postponements for the Belmont, Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.
The Derby will take place Sept. 5, and the Preakness will be held Oct. 3.
The top 20 horses on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard will be eligible to enter the Run for the Roses. Tiz the Law leads the field with 272 points after the Belmont, followed by Honor A.P., Authentic, King Guillermo and Ete Indien.
Other top-20 horses that raced in the Belmont include Modernist (sixth in points), Dr Post (eighth), Max Player (12th), Sole Volante (16th) and Pneumatic (20th).
Honor A.P., Authentic and King Guillermo figure to be the top contenders for the Derby crown outside Tiz the Law, undoubtedly the favorite.
Honor A.P. is second to Tiz the Law in the National Thoroughbred Racing Association's three-year-old rankings, per BloodHorse, after winning the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby two weeks ago.
Maxfield was the only other horse to receive first-place votes, and Authentic and King Guillermo rounded out the top five.
Honor A.P. finished second in the San Felipe Stakes in March to Authentic, who started his career with three wins. A second-place finish at Santa Anita was Authentic's latest performance.
The undefeated Maxfield (three wins) hasn't faced the best three-year-olds, but he's impressed in his own right with wins at Churchill Downs and one at Keeneland. The Kentucky-bred horse will be the sentimental favorite in September.
King Guillermo, who is owned by ex-MLB star Victor Martinez, should be a threat as well. He finished second in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby second division to Nadal, who would have been a clear favorite to win the Belmont Stakes had he not suffered a career-ending ankle fracture in May.
King Guillermo also took down a stout challenger in Sole Volante at the Tampa Bay Derby in March.
The field that Tiz the Law will face in September should be much tougher than the one he took on in the Belmont.
Some of the sport's best three-year-olds were absent but should be ready for the Derby, so Tiz the Law is unlikely to be the near even-odds favorite he was Saturday.
Though it's not a ringing endorsement given the strength of the competition, the guess here is that Tiz the Law will win the Kentucky Derby.
However, he'll face his toughest challenger yet if Charlatan is good to go for the Preakness.
Triple Crown-winning trainer Bob Baffert held Charlatan out of the Belmont because of swelling in his ankle, but Baffert hasn't ruled out an appearance in the Preakness, per Ray Paulick of the Paulick Report.
Charlatan would be the best horse in that competition, and if he's healthy and eligible, should win. Like Nadal, Charlatan also won the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby first division. He's won all three of his races, with the other two occurring at Santa Anita Park.
Per Tim Sullivan of the Louisville Courier Journal, Vegas Insider had listed Charlatan as a 5-1 favorite before the injury and after the Arkansas Derby. And that was just two days before Nadal, another strong favorite, retired.
If Charlatan can't go, Tiz the Law will have a clearer path to the Triple Crown.





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