Re-Drafting Alex Bregman, Walker Buehler, Mike Soroka and the 2015 MLB Draft
A trio of shortstops headlined the 2015 MLB draft: Dansby Swanson of Vanderbilt, Alex Bregman of LSU and Florida high school star Brendan Rodgers.
Those three players have enjoyed varying levels of success, while others from the class, such as Walker Buehler, Mike Soroka, Paul DeJong and Brandon Lowe, have outperformed their draft position to emerge as All-Stars.
Where would all those guys have gone in the draft if teams had the benefit of hindsight? That's what we set out to answer.
Any player who signed as part of the 2015 class was eligible for the re-draft, which includes a revised selection and breakdown for each of the 26 first-round picks. To round things out, we have added a list of Compensatory Round and Competitive Balance Round A choices from Nos. 27 to 42.
1. Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Walker Buehler
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Walker Buehler was in the mix to go No. 1 overall before elbow soreness slowed him during his junior season and caused him to slide down draft boards.
The Los Angeles Dodgers took a chance on him at No. 24, and it was revealed shortly after the draft that he needed Tommy John surgery.
He has proved worth the wait, emerging as one of the most promising young starters in baseball over the past two seasons.
The 25-year-old went 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 215 strikeouts in 182.1 innings last season, earning his first All-Star selection and finishing ninth in NL Cy Young voting.
He would give the Arizona Diamondbacks a long-term ace to build around, and his presence likely would have eliminated the need to spend $85 million on a 30-year-old Madison Bumgarner this past offseason.
Would the D-backs have traded him to Atlanta in the December 2015 Shelby Miller deal instead of Swanson?
Actual Pick: SS Dansby Swanson
Buehler's Actual Draft Position: No. 24 overall (Los Angeles Dodgers)
2. Houston Astros: 3B Alex Bregman
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The Houston Astros hit the jackpot when they selected Alex Bregman at No. 2 out of LSU, and they would happily double down on that selection in this re-draft.
The 26-year-old is coming off an MVP-caliber season in which he hit .296/.423/.592 (162 OPS+) with 37 doubles, 41 home runs, 112 RBI and more walks (119) than strikeouts (83). That performance was worth 9.1 WAR and earned him a runner-up finish to Mike Trout in AL MVP balloting.
A shortstop in college, he slid over to third base in deference to Carlos Correa, and he has steadily improved at the hot corner, having posted the best metrics of his career (8 DRS, 5.3 UZR/150) in 2019.
If not for his ties to the sign-stealing scandal in Houston, he would have been the clear pick to go No. 1 overall in this re-draft, but the Astros have no reason to think twice about drafting him again.
Actual Pick: SS Alex Bregman
Bregman's Actual Draft Position: No. 2 overall (Houston Astros)
3. Colorado Rockies: RHP Mike Soroka
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Mike Soroka emerged from a crowded stable of pitching prospects in the Atlanta Braves farm system and became the staff ace last season.
The 22-year-old went 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 142 strikeouts in 174.2 innings, finishing second to Pete Alonso in NL Rookie of the Year balloting and sixth in NL Cy Young voting.
While his stuff is by no means overpowering, he did a great job of keeping the ball on the ground last year with a 51.2 percent ground-ball rate that ranked sixth among qualified starters.
That approach would play well at Coors Field and in front of standout defenders Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado on the left side of the infield. His NL-leading 0.7 HR/9 rate would also play well at altitude.
This looks like a perfect match.
Actual Pick: SS Brendan Rodgers
Soroka's Actual Draft Position: No. 28 overall (Atlanta Braves)
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4. Texas Rangers: RHP Chris Paddack
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The Texas Rangers made UC Santa Barbara standout Dillon Tate the first pitcher selected in the 2015 draft at No. 4 overall, but he failed to develop into the front-line starter they expected him to become, and he has since been traded twice.
This time around, two pitchers are off the board, but the Rangers can still snag a top-of-the-rotation arm in Chris Paddack.
The 24-year-old went 9-7 with a 3.33 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 153 strikeouts in 140.2 innings as a rookie last season, putting behind him any lingering injury concerns after he missed half of 2016 and all of 2017 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
The 6'4", 195-pound right-hander has a mid-90s fastball, an improving curveball and one of the best changeups in baseball. As long as he avoids any further arm issues, he checks all the boxes to be a staff ace.
Actual Pick: RHP Dillon Tate
Paddack's Actual Draft Position: No. 236 overall (Miami Marlins)
5. Houston Astros: SS Paul DeJong
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In this scenario, the Houston Astros already have Correa and Bregman on the left side of the infield, so shortstop Paul DeJong doesn't fill a need.
That said, he's too valuable to pass up at No. 5 overall, and teams can never have too much middle infield talent.
The 26-year-old slugged 31 doubles and 30 home runs for the St. Louis Cardinals last season to earn his first All-Star selection. He's already been locked up with a six-year, $26 million extension that could keep him in St. Louis through 2025 with a pair of club options.
A third baseman at the onset of his pro career, DeJong has really taken to shortstop, tying with Javier Baez for the lead among shortstops with 26 DRS in 2019.
Whether he's a trade chip or allows the Astros to move one of their other infielders, he's the best player on the board at No. 5.
Actual Pick: OF Kyle Tucker
DeJong's Actual Draft Position: No. 131 overall (St. Louis Cardinals)
6. Minnesota Twins: OF Andrew Benintendi
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Andrew Benintendi won Golden Spikes honors in 2015 when he hit .376/.488/.717 with 20 home runs and 24 steals as a draft-eligible sophomore at the University of Arkansas.
As expected, he moved quickly through the minors, making his MLB debut on Aug. 2, 2016, and stepping into the everyday left fielder role the following season.
The 25-year-old finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2017, and while he has yet to take a significant step forward, he has been plenty productive in his three full MLB seasons. He's hit .276/.354/.440 for a 108 OPS+ while averaging 36 doubles, 16 home runs, 82 RBI, 86 runs scored, 17 steals and 3.1 WAR.
While he has spent the bulk of his time in left field, that is largely a result of sharing an outfield with Gold Glove winners Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts. On another team, he would've been a clear candidate to man center field.
Actual Pick: LHP Tyler Jay
Benintendi's Actual Draft Position: No. 7 overall (Boston Red Sox)
7. Boston Red Sox: 2B Brandon Lowe
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Dustin Pedroia has played a grand total of nine games for the Boston Red Sox the past two seasons.
In his absence, the team has turned to Brock Holt (116 games), Eduardo Nunez (105), Marco Hernandez (48), Michael Chavis (45), Ian Kinsler (37), Chris Owings (12), Tzu-Wei Lin (12), Brandon Phillips (5), Christian Vazquez (2), Betts (1) and Blake Swihart (1) at the position.
Brandon Lowe would provide a long-term solution at a spot that has no clear starter for 2020.
The 25-year-old hit .270/.336/.514 (124 OPS+) with 17 doubles, 17 home runs and 51 RBI in 82 games to earn a spot on the AL All-Star team and finish third in AL Rookie of the Year voting.
He also agreed to a team-friendly six-year, $24 million extension following a 43-game audition in 2018, which fits into the Red Sox's cost-cutting mindset.
Actual Pick: OF Andrew Benintendi
Lowe's Actual Draft Position: No. 87 overall (Tampa Bay Rays)
8. Chicago White Sox: OF Kyle Tucker
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Kyle Tucker has yet to receive an extended MLB look, but all signs point to stardom, considering his top-prospect pedigree and stellar production in the upper levels of the minors.
The 23-year-old began last season as the No. 12 prospect in the sport, according to Baseball America, and he backed that up by posting a .909 OPS with 34 home runs and 30 steals in 125 games at Triple-A.
The Astros called him up in September, and he played his way onto the postseason roster with a 118 OPS+, six doubles, four home runs and 11 RBI in 72 plate appearances.
A long-term outfield of Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert and Tucker would look awfully good for the rebuilding Chicago White Sox.
Actual Pick: RHP Carson Fulmer
Tucker's Actual Draft Position: No. 5 overall (Houston Astros)
9. Chicago Cubs: IF/OF David Fletcher
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David Fletcher would be the perfect replacement for Ben Zobrist.
The 26-year-old hit .290/.350/.384 with 40 extra-base hits in 653 plate appearances for the Los Angeles Angels last season, showing elite contact skills with a 9.8 percent strikeout rate.
He also showed elite defensive versatility by posting positive defensive metrics at second base (239.1 INN, 6 DRS), third base (665.1 INN, 6 DRS), shortstop (246.1 INN, 2 DRS) and in left field (146.2 INN, 3 DRS).
That unique package of skills was worth 4.5 WAR in 2019 and would fit perfectly on the Chicago Cubs roster.
Actual Pick: OF Ian Happ
Fletcher's Actual Draft Position: No. 195 overall (Los Angeles Angels)
10. Philadelphia Phillies: SS Dansby Swanson
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Swanson has spent the last three seasons as the starting shortstop for the Atlanta Braves.
The 26-year-old has not yet lived up to his status as the No. 1 pick in this class, but he showed signs of taking a significant step forward during the first half of the 2019 season.
He hit .270/.330/.493 with 17 home runs and 57 RBI in 89 games before a heel injury washed out his second half. He ended up hitting .204 with a .569 OPS and zero home runs in 165 plate appearances after the break.
That said, a clean bill of health could bring a true breakout season.
The Philadelphia Phillies signed Didi Gregorius to a one-year deal to man shortstop in 2020, but the franchise does not have a long-term solution at the position.
Actual Pick: OF Cornelius Randolph
Swanson's Actual Draft Position: No. 1 overall (Philadelphia Phillies)
11. Cincinnati Reds: IF Brendan Rodgers
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There's still time for Rodgers to live up to the hype.
The first high school hitter taken in the 2015 draft has raked throughout his time in the minors, posting a .296/.352/.503 line in five seasons.
He was hitting .350/.413/.622 with 10 doubles and nine home runs in 37 games at Triple-A when he was called up to make his MLB debut on May 17, 2019.
He struggled to a .224 average and a 29 OPS+ in 25 games before he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in June, but plenty of players have scuffled in their first taste of MLB action before figuring things out.
The Cincinnati Reds are still searching for their franchise shortstop, and the 23-year-old Rodgers has all the tools to be a star.
Actual Pick: C Tyler Stephenson
Rodgers' Actual Draft Position: No. 3 overall (Colorado Rockies)
12. Miami Marlins: IF/OF Scott Kingery
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The Phillies saw enough in Scott Kingery to sign him to a six-year, $24 million extension—which includes a trio of club options—before he made his MLB debut in 2018.
The 26-year-old split his time between center field and third base last season, posting a 100 OPS+ with 34 doubles, 19 home runs and 15 steals in a 2.8-WAR campaign.
He played primarily second base in the minors, and that could be where he eventually settles in, but he graded out as an above-average defender at the hot corner (306.1 INN, 6 DRS, 16.7 UZR/150) and held his own in center field (479.1 INN, 0 DRS, -1.4 UZR/150).
The Miami Marlins are still in the early stages of rebuilding, with little in the way of long-term lineup pieces outside Brian Anderson, so Kingery would be a fit at a number of positions.
Actual Pick: 1B Josh Naylor
Kingery's Actual Draft Position: No. 48 overall (Philadelphia Phillies)
13. Tampa Bay Rays: 3B Austin Riley
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Austin Riley was the No. 22 prospect in the sport at the start of the 2019 season after posting an .882 OPS with 30 doubles, 19 home runs and 70 RBI in the minors the previous year.
He exploded onto the MLB scene with nine home runs and 25 RBI in his first 18 games before cooling off considerably after the All-Star break while nursing a knee injury.
The 23-year-old finished his rookie season by hitting .226/.279/.471 with 18 home runs and 49 RBI in 297 plate appearances, and his 36.4 percent strikeout rate raised questions about his ability to make consistent contact.
Still, he offers enough offensive upside to be worth a high-risk, high-reward roll of the dice here for the Tampa Bay Rays.
Actual Pick: OF Garrett Whitley
Riley's Actual Draft Position: No. 41 overall (Atlanta Braves)
14. Atlanta Braves: 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes
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With presumptive third baseman of the future Riley going off the board one pick earlier in this re-draft, the Braves turn their attention to another young standout at the position.
Ke'Bryan Hayes began 2020 as the No. 56 prospect in baseball, and most evaluators remain bullish on his future despite a rather uninspired .265/.336/.415 line with 30 doubles and 10 home runs in 110 games at Triple-A last year.
With a 60-grade hit tool and solid pop, he has the skills to be an offensive weapon, and there is zero question his glove is MLB-ready.
MLB.com wrote: "He's consistently brought up in conversations about the best defensive prospects in the game at any position, and he's clearly the best third baseman in the minors, one who will be a Gold Glove contender the minute he joins a big league roster."
The 23-year-old is on the cusp of the majors, and if everything clicks, he could be a star.
Actual Pick: LHP Kolby Allard
Hayes' Actual Draft Position: No. 32 overall (Pittsburgh Pirates)
15. Milwaukee Brewers: RHP Jordan Hicks
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The Milwaukee Brewers already have arguably the most dominant reliever in baseball in left-hander Josh Hader, as well as a former All-Star closer in Corey Knebel.
Might as well add one of the hardest-throwing relievers in the game to the bullpen contingent.
Jordan Hicks averaged 101.5 mph with his fastball last season, and he tallied 14 saves in 15 chances and posted a 3.14 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 29 appearances before a torn UCL led to Tommy John surgery in June.
The 23-year-old needs to prove he's healthy and still has his electric stuff post-surgery, and there's plenty of room to improve on a 9.7 K/9 strikeout rate, but his ceiling is still as high as that of any young reliever's in baseball.
Actual Pick: OF Trent Grisham
Hicks' Actual Draft Position: No. 105 overall (St. Louis Cardinals)
16. New York Yankees: OF Willie Calhoun
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Willie Calhoun emerged as one of the top prospects in baseball after he hit .300/.355/.572 with 27 doubles and 31 home runs in 128 games at Triple-A during the 2017 season.
Injuries and a cloudy defensive profile delayed his arrival in the majors before he broke through last season with a 110 OPS+ and 21 home runs in 83 games.
The 25-year-old began his pro career as a second baseman before sliding down the defensive scale and landing in left field. In the long run, he's probably best suited as a designated hitter.
That said, there's a ton of power packed into his 5'8" frame, and he has the hit tool to also be an asset in the batting average department.
He would give the New York Yankees some additional outfield depth to protect against injury while spending the bulk of his time at DH.
Actual Pick: RHP James Kaprielian
Calhoun's Actual Draft Position: No. 132 overall (Los Angeles Dodgers)
17. Cleveland Indians: SS Kevin Newman
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Kevin Newman hit .308/.353/.446 with 20 doubles, 12 home runs and 16 steals as a rookie last season, seizing the Pittsburgh Pirates' vacant shortstop job following the departure of veteran Jordy Mercer.
While a .333 BABIP raises questions about the sustainability of his batting average following a 3.1-WAR season, his mix of power and speed is rare for a middle infielder, and he should be an everyday player for years.
The Cleveland Indians could slide him over to second base, where he posted strong defensive metrics last season (2 DRS, 17.5 UZR/150), which means they would no longer need to sign Cesar Hernandez in free agency.
From there, he would provide a contingency plan at shortstop for when Francisco Lindor inevitably departs, whether it's via free agency following the 2021 season or in a trade.
Actual Pick: LHP Brady Aiken
Newman's Actual Draft Position: No. 19 overall (Pittsburgh Pirates)
18. San Francisco Giants: OF Harrison Bader
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The San Francisco Giants have struggled to find someone capable of handling center field at spacious Oracle Park in the years since Angel Pagan was a staple atop the lineup.
Enter Harrison Bader.
The 26-year-old hit just .205 with a 78 OPS+ in 406 plate appearances last season, tallying 29 extra-base hits and 11 steals, yet he was still a 2.1-WAR player on the strength of his defense.
In three MLB seasons, he has racked up 33 DRS in the outfield, including 14 DRS and a 21.8 UZR/150 in center field last season when he was a Gold Glove finalist.
There's reason to believe he's capable of more offensively given his .284/.351/.485 line in four minor league seasons, but even if he never improves with the bat, he's still a viable everyday center fielder thanks to his glove.
Actual Pick: RHP Phil Bickford
Bader's Actual Draft Position: No. 100 overall (St. Louis Cardinals)
19. Pittsburgh Pirates: C Tyler Stephenson
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Tyler Stephenson was the first of two catchers taken in the first round of the 2015 draft, with the other being Taylor Ward, who has since moved to third base for the Los Angeles Angels.
Stephenson, 23, has yet to make his MLB debut, but he's knocking on the door.
He hit .285/.372/.410 with 26 extra-base hits in 89 games at Double-A last season and then posted a stout .347/.418/.490 line with seven doubles in 55 plate appearances in the Arizona Fall League. He also has the tools to be an above-average defensive catcher.
MLB.com wrote: "Already well-regarded defensively because of his good hands, flexibility and being a good target, Stephenson took steps in '19 to improve his pitch-framing skills while throwing more consistently."
The catcher position is a major question mark for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and there's no clear long-term solution in the farm system, making Stephenson an excellent pick.
Actual Pick: SS Kevin Newman
Stephenson's Actual Draft Position: No. 11 overall (Cincinnati Reds)
20. Oakland Athletics: IF/OF Ian Happ
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The Oakland Athletics have long valued defensive versatility and on-base skills.
Ian Happ has flashed the potential for both since going No. 9 overall in this class and rocketing through the minor leagues to make his MLB debut on May 13, 2017.
The 25-year-old has endured his fair share of ups and downs, and he spent the bulk of the 2019 season in the minors, refining his plate approach.
Despite a 32.5 percent strikeout rate in the majors, he also has a 111 OPS+ with 22 doubles and 26 home runs per 162 games. He has also seen significant action at all three outfield spots, second base and third base on his way to 3.3 WAR.
The Chicago Cubs have seemingly mismanaged him, and with the right organization, he could be an impact player.
Actual Pick: SS Richie Martin
Happ's Actual Draft Position: No. 9 overall (Chicago Cubs)
21. Kansas City Royals: OF Trent Grisham
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After three straight seasons of middling production while climbing the minor league ranks in the Milwaukee Brewers system, Trent Grisham had fallen out of the prospect conversation heading into 2019.
He then promptly exploded for a .300/.407/.603 line that included 22 doubles, 26 home runs, 71 RBI, 71 runs scored and 12 steals in 97 games in Double-A and Triple-A to earn an MLB call-up.
The 23-year-old posted a 90 OPS+, with six doubles, two triples and six home runs in 183 plate appearances down the stretch while playing strong outfield defense (4 DRS, 8.9 UZR/150) on his way to 0.6 WAR in 51 games.
His breakout season raised his value enough to make him a quality trade chip, and Milwaukee flipped him to the San Diego Padres in a four-player deal during the offseason.
He would give the rebuilding Kansas City Royals a potential foundational piece.
Actual Pick: RHP Ashe Russell
Grisham's Actual Draft Position: No. 15 overall (Milwaukee Brewers)
22. Detroit Tigers: 1B Ryan Mountcastle
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The Detroit Tigers farm system is loaded with high-ceiling pitching talent, led by the trio of Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal.
Things are a bit cloudier on the position-player side.
Despite sliding down the defensive spectrum from shortstop to third base to first base, Ryan Mountcastle has the offensive tools to be a long-term piece.
The 23-year-old hit .312/.344/.527 with 35 doubles, 25 home runs and 83 RBI in 127 games at Triple-A last year, and while Miguel Cabrera is under contract through the 2023 season, Mountcastle could push him to the DH role while taking over as the starting first baseman in short order.
Actual Pick: RHP Beau Burrows
Mountcastle's Actual Draft Position: No. 36 overall (Baltimore Orioles)
23. St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Ryan Helsley
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Ryan Helsley has prototypical late-inning stuff.
The Cardinals used him primarily as a starter before he was shifted to the bullpen to expedite his arrival in the majors during the 2019 season.
He made his MLB debut April 16, 2019, and quietly turned in an effective rookie season, posting a 2.95 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 24 appearances.
Armed with a fastball that averaged 98 mph and a wipeout slider that accounted for 21 of his 40 strikeouts and held batters to a .098 ISO, he should settle into a setup role.
Actual Pick: OF Nick Plummer
Helsley's Actual Draft Position: No. 161 overall (St. Louis Cardinals)
24. Los Angeles Dodgers: IF/OF Myles Straw
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There is perhaps no manager and team in baseball that does a better job of utilizing its entire bench than Dave Roberts and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Myles Straw would be an interesting weapon.
The 25-year-old has a unique blend of speed, on-base ability and defensive versatility that makes him an extremely productive part-time player.
He hit .269 with nearly as many walks (19) as strikeouts (24) in 128 plate appearances last season, posting a .378 on-base percentage while swiping eight bases in nine attempts. He had a 70-steal season in 2018 while splitting the year between Double-A and Triple-A.
Adding shortstop to his defensive repertoire last year increased his versatility, as he's capable of lining up at both middle infield positions and all three outfield spots.
He may be the ideal 26th man under the expanded roster format.
Actual Pick: RHP Walker Buehler
Straw's Actual Draft Position: No. 349 overall (Houston Astros)
25. Baltimore Orioles: RHP Trent Thornton
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The Toronto Blue Jays acquired Trent Thornton from the Houston Astros before last season for infielder Aledmys Diaz, and he won a spot in the starting rotation out of spring training.
He led the team in starts (29), innings pitched (154.1) and strikeouts (149) while posting a respectable 4.84 ERA and 94 ERA+ in a 1.6-WAR season.
The 26-year-old is more floor than ceiling and lacks overpowering stuff, but he does a good job of keeping hitters off balance with a five-pitch repertoire.
There's no reason he can't be a productive back-of-the-rotation starter, and he would be a welcome addition to a highly questionable Baltimore Orioles staff.
Actual Pick: OF DJ Stewart
Thornton's Actual Draft Position: No. 139 overall (Houston Astros)
26. Los Angeles Angels: LHP Kolby Allard
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In a thin crop of prep arms, Kolby Allard was the first high school pitcher off the board in the 2015 draft at No. 14 overall.
The 22-year-old did not offer the same upside as some of the other top prospects in a deep Atlanta Braves system, and he was traded to the Texas Rangers last summer for reliever Chris Martin.
While he may not be a future ace, his floor is extremely high thanks to his polished overall game.
The left-hander made nine starts for the Rangers following the trade last season, going 4-2 with a 4.96 ERA and a promising 4.01 FIP in 45.1 innings. He would be squarely in the mix for a spot in the Los Angeles Angels rotation in 2020.
Actual Pick: C Taylor Ward
Allard's Actual Draft Position: No. 14 overall (Atlanta Braves)
Compensatory Round and Competitive Balance Round A
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COMPENSATORY ROUND
27. Colorado Rockies: RHP Nick Neidert
28. Atlanta Braves: IF/OF Matt Beaty
29. Toronto Blue Jays: RHP Triston McKenzie
30. New York Yankees: RHP Tony Santillan
31. San Francisco Giants: OF Daz Cameron
32. Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Cody Stashak
33. Kansas City Royals: IF/RHP Jake Cronenworth
34. Detroit Tigers: LHP Logan Allen
35. Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Phil Maton
36. Baltimore Orioles: OF Sam Hilliard
COMPETITIVE BALANCE ROUND A
37. Houston Astros: RHP Peter Fairbanks
38. Colorado Rockies: LHP Thomas Szapucki
39. St. Louis Cardinals: LHP A.J. Minter
40. Milwaukee Brewers: 1B/OF Josh Naylor
41. Atlanta Braves: 1B/LHP Jared Walsh
42. Cleveland Indians: OF Steven Duggar
All statistics via Baseball Reference or FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. Prospect rankings via Baseball America.
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