What If Oregon's Justin Herbert Had Declared for the 2019 NFL Draft?

Despite being the potential No. 1 pick in the 2019 NFL draft, Justin Herbert decided to play his senior year at Oregon. The strong-armed quarterback led the Ducks to a 12-2 record, Pac-12 championship and Rose Bowl victory last season.

The 2020 NFL draft arrives Thursday, and Herbert is considered a likely top-10 selection and possible top-five pick.

But what if he'd headed for the NFL earlier?

This question is the second installment of B/R's "What If?" college football series. Last week, Kerry Miller theorized the effect Joe Burrow would've had if he'd remained at Ohio State instead of leaving for LSU.

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As a freshman in 2016, Herbert became the starter midway through the season. Although the Ducks trudged to a 4-8 record—the program's worst finish in 25 years—Herbert provided optimism with 19 touchdowns and just four interceptions.

He missed five games in 2017 because of a broken collarbone, yet he continued to impress scouts and evaluators.

Before the 2018 season, Herbert was widely labeled a top draft-eligible quarterback. In early rankings, he stood atop the position for B/R's Matt Miller and ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr., among others. Given that perception and the reality of modern star players typically leaving for the NFL as soon as they're eligible, it seemed Herbert would depart for the NFL.

Long story short: He stayed for 2019.

Though we're focused on the impact on college football, the New York Giants undoubtedly would have considered Herbert at No. 6. They ended up selecting Duke's Daniel Jones to replace Eli Manning.

As for Oregon, backup quarterback Braxton Burmeister transferred to Virginia Tech last offseason. He replaced an injured Herbert in 2017 but only entered a few lopsided games in 2018. Had he stayed and Herbert left, Oregon would've held a competition between Burmeister and Tyler Shough.

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The simple truth is, in all likelihood, the Ducks wouldn't have enjoyed such a productive 2019. While it's plausible they could've won a mediocre Pac-12 North thanks to a spectacular defense, a 10-win season is a fair best-case scenario.

But a Herbert-less Oregon means Utah would've had a better chance at reaching the College Football Playoff.

Entering the Pac-12 Championship Game, Utah ranked No. 5 nationally, one spot ahead of Oklahoma. Because of Oregon's win, however, an Oklahoma victory over Baylor propelled the Sooners to the CFP.

Yes, LSU wrecked Oklahoma anyway. Utah probably would've encountered a similar fate—though a stronger secondary means it maybe would've been a bit less lopsided. Besides, an invitation to the dance is a whole lot better than watching it from the outside.

Oklahoma would've been disappointed to miss the CFP, for sure. But since the Sooners are an established perennial power, merely being the nation's fifth-best team wouldn't have affected their Big 12 dominance or future outlook.

What a difference it could've made for Utah, though.

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

Simply appearing in the CFP would have bolstered the program's appeal to top recruits around the country.

Utah joined the Pac-12 in 2011 and has consistently hovered in the 30-50 range of 247Sports' recruiting rankings. It's possible to succeed without elite talent. It's also exceptionally rare to build—and sustain—a true national contender without elite talent.

Even as the Utes signed a program-best 29th-ranked class in 2020, the 2021 cycle would've been more likely to bring their first-ever top-25 haul.

Maybe it will happen anyway! Utah has back-to-back Pac-12 South titles and five nine-win seasons in the last six years, after all. But a 38-10 loss to Texas in the Alamo Bowl is a markedly less exciting pitch than "We made the College Football Playoff last year."

Even with a CFP appearance, 2020 would be a rebuilding year for Utah. But a six- to eight-win season would be easier to sell as a temporary setback had the Utes headed to the playoff.

Herbert's return may have stalled the emergence of a Pac-12 power.

Follow Bleacher Report writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.