Peach Bowl 2019: 5 Reasons LSU vs. Oklahoma Will Be Closer Than You Think
Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney has mastered the art of perceiving slights against his team that aren't even there, but Oklahoma's Lincoln Riley should be banging the "nobody believes in us" drum like none other in advance of the Peach Bowl showdown with LSU.
The way most experts are talking about this game, you'd think the Sooners are sending a JV team to be slaughtered by the 1972 Miami Dolphins.
Oklahoma finished one measly yard behind LSU for the title of No. 1 offense in the nation, but it is being treated like the fourth team in a three-team playoff.
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Oklahoma's defense is drastically better than the screen door made of Swiss cheese that it sent to last year's College Football Playoff, but the Peach Bowl is being treated as the undercard to the Fiesta Bowl.
Yes, it might be a blowout win for LSU. As you may have heard, Joe Burrow is quite good. That Tigers defense appears to be peaking at the right time, too, holding each of its final three opponents—including a Georgia team which landed at No. 5 in the final CFP rankings for a second consecutive year—below 4.3 yards per play. There were several close calls throughout the season, but they didn't exactly back their way into the No. 1 seed.
A blowout wouldn't be unprecedented, either. Eight of the previous 10 College Football Playoff semifinals were decided by double digits. Five of them featured a final margin of at least 20 points. Last year, both semifinals were effectively over by halftime.
But you don't need to read another "LSU will win 45-31" type of article. What you need is a reason to tune in; a reason to believe Oklahoma could win this thing, despite its status as a major underdog and despite its 0-3 record in College Football Playoff history.
Well, friend, I've got five such reasons.
1. Jalen Hurts Is Some Kind of Special
Burrow won the Heisman in a runaway, but Hurts was every bit as good as Kyler Murray was in winning last year's stiff-armed trophy.
Hurts—4,914 combined passing/rushing/receiving yards, 51 total touchdowns, seven interceptions, 71.8 completion percentage, 11.8 yards per attempt, 200.3 PER
Murray (pre-CFP)—4,945 combined yards, 51 total touchdowns, seven interceptions, 70.9 completion percentage, 11.9 yards per attempt, 205.7 PER
Let's take that one step further, though. In the past 20 years, there have only been four quarterbacks to accumulate at least 3,000 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, 1,000 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in a single season. Those dual-threat dynamos were Hurts, Murray, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson.
Insert your finely crafted "Big 12 defenses tho" retort here, but not enough people seem to appreciate how great Hurts has been this season.
He was good during his three seasons with Alabama, but Lincoln Riley and Oklahoma unlocked some sort of superpower which put Hurts on the Mount Rushmore of recent RPO quarterbacks. With his arm and legs leading the way, Oklahoma has scored at least 28 points in every game.
2. In Spite of Recent Success, LSU's Defense Is a Red Flag
The Tigers looked great on D over their final three games, but let's consider the circumstances of them.
The first one came against Arkansas, which has been the laughingstock of the SEC for the past three years. Limiting the Hogs to 20 points and 304 total yards wasn't much of an accomplishment. In fact, over its last six contests, Arkansas only had one game with more yards (340 vs. Western Kentucky) and one game with more points (24 at Mississippi State). The Tigers allowed that offense to do more than most opponents did.
Shutting down Texas A&M the following week was much more impressive, but the Aggies were also run down at the end of a season that didn't go according to plan. They had early losses to Clemson, Auburn and Alabama and had just lost a hard-fought game at Georgia one week before playing at LSU. The Aggies flat-out didn't show up for that one.
And in the SEC championship, Georgia either didn't have or barely had most of its best weapons. D'Andre Swift suited up in spite of a shoulder contusion, but he only received five touches for 31 yards. Second-leading receiver Lawrence Cager didn't play at all because of injuries. And by the time leading receiver George Pickens saw his first snap—he was suspended for the first half for getting into a fight the previous week—Georgia was already down three scores and had no offensive rhythm whatsoever.
Maybe LSU's defense truly did hit its stride down the stretch and those factors just helped accelerate the process, or maybe the real LSU defense is the one that had no answer for Texas' Sam Ehlinger, Florida's Kyle Trask, Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa or Mississippi's John Rhys Plumlee. Trask led the Gators to 457 yards and 28 points against the Tigers. Those other three offenses each had at least 530 yards and 37 points.
Though Hurts struggled against LSU in two tries while with Alabama, the new-and-improved Hurts should have a field day against a Tigers D that isn't nearly as fierce as it was in 2016-17.
3. Oklahoma's Absences Are Concerning, but They Might Not Be Debilitating
When news broke on Dec. 18 that three Oklahoma players—running back Rhamondre Stevenson, wide receiver Trejan Bridges and defensive end Ronnie Perkins—are going to be suspended for the Peach Bowl, folks reacted as though that was the final straw, eliminating what little hope Oklahoma had for pulling off the upset.
Let's pump the brakes on that one.
Bridges had seven receptions during the entire season, and only one since October 5. He was barely going to see the field anyway. And while Stevenson has averaged eight yards per carry, he has yet to receive 10 or more touches in a game. Kennedy Brooks is the starting running back, and Hurts is the actual primary ball-carrier. The Sooners should get by just fine with T.J. Pledger handling Stevenson's limited duties.
The loss of Perkins—and the subsequent loss of strong safety Delarrin Turner-Yell because of a fractured collarbone—are the tougher pills to swallow. Perkins led the Sooners with six sacks and had 13.5 tackles for loss. Turner-Yell is No. 2 on the team in total tackles (75). Losing two defensive starters less than 10 days before facing a quarterback as talented as Burrow isn't great news.
But the Sooners still have the heart and soul of their defense: linebacker Kenneth Murray. They have a talented, albeit largely unproven true freshman, Marcus Stripling, who will take Perkins' spot in the starting lineup, as well as another solid pass-rusher in Jalen Redmond. And they still have a respectable secondary led by Brendan Radley-Hiles and Parnell Motley.
Oklahoma doesn't need to try to pitch a shutout to win this game. It probably needs to hold LSU to around 35 points to have a realistic chance of victory. There are still enough playmakers on this defense to make that happen.
Also, LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is questionable with a hamstring injury. If he's unable to go, that's a much bigger deal than Oklahoma's absences. That would make LSU's offense more one-dimensional, at which point it becomes more feasible to slow down Burrow and Co.
4. At Least Oklahoma Has Been Here Before
The Sooners have yet to win a College Football Playoff game, but they've had a few impressive performances on the sport's grandest stage.
Two years ago against Georgia, they held a 31-14 first-half lead over the Bulldogs before losing in double overtime. Last year, they fell behind Alabama 28-0 before outscoring the Crimson Tide 34-17 the rest of the way. They still lost the game, but it was further proof that this Lincoln Riley offense can thrive against the SEC.
Not only has this program been here several times, but its starting quarterback has played in six playoff games over the past three seasons. This team won't be intimidated by the moment.
LSU probably won't be, either. After all, the Tigers just blew out Georgia in this same stadium in a must-win affair against a great team essentially playing a home game.
But if either team is going to experience some jitters, it's going to be the heavy favorite playing in its first playoff.
Unless you count Burrow sitting on the bench for the entirety of Ohio State's 31-0 loss to Clemson three years ago, no one on this roster has any College Football Playoff experience. Last year's Fiesta Bowl victory was the only time LSU has even been in a New Year's Six game since 2012, and the stakes of that game are nothing compared to this.
Georgia was in a similar, unfamiliar position two years ago against Oklahoma, and the Bulldogs didn't really show up until the second half. If LSU does the same thing against an improved Sooners defense, it might not be able to recover.
5. The College Football Playoff Has Not Been Kind to No. 1 Seeds
Five years ago, No. 4 seed Ohio State beat No. 1 Alabama before going on to win the inaugural College Football Playoff. Three years later, Alabama was on the happier end of that scenario, upsetting No. 1 Clemson in the semifinal and then beating Georgia in overtime.
In the other three years, the No. 1 seed won its opener but lost to the No. 2 seed in the title game.
Overall, No. 1 seeds are 3-5 and No. 4 seeds are 4-3.
Granted, Oklahoma suffered two of the three previous losses by No. 4 seeds, and one-half decade of seed history is a rather infinitesimal sample size. But it does show there's a precedent for the upset. (Alabama was actually favored against Clemson in 2017, but it was still an upset as far as seeds are concerned.)
Add it all up and, well, I'm still not brave enough to pick the Sooners to win. However, I could see it happening, and I'm at least picking Oklahoma to cover the two-touchdown spread. This is going to be a better game than you've been led to believe.
Predictions: LSU 38, Oklahoma 35; Offensive MVP: Joe Burrow; Defensive MVP: Derek Stingley Jr.
Kerry Miller covers college football and men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.
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