It's Time for Gregg Popovich to Punt on DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge
These aren't your grandmother's San Antonio Spurs.
A team revered for its consistent winning has done everything but win consistently this season. Following an overtime loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Thursday, the Spurs now hold a 9-15 record, their worst start since 1996-97—the year they fell apart and were able to draft Tim freakin' Duncan the following summer.
Their saving grace: The bottom of the Western Conference is a dumpster fire. Despite being six games under .500, they sit just two games out of the seventh seed. There's technically room for hope in regard to their playoff chances. But for an organization that has been as consistently great as the Spurs have been, the writing should be on the wall.
It's time to blow the doors off this sucker.
The Math Problem
The Spurs have been oddly successful in recent years with their zig-while-they-zag strategy. While the rest of the league has decided to fling more threes, the Spurs have countered by building a mid-range fortress around DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge.
DeRozan and Aldridge were efficient enough last year to make that arrangement work. The Spurs were sixth in offensive rating (112.2 points per 100 possessions) despite ranking 29th in three-point attempts per 100 possessions.
That hasn't held this year. The Spurs are 15th in offensive rating (108.4 points per 100 possessions) behind their '80s-esque shot profile. No team takes more mid-range jumpers per game (24.9); in fact, the combined average of DeRozan and Aldridge (13.9 attempts) would tie them with the 11th-ranked Sacramento Kings. The Indiana Pacers rank 29th in threes attempted per 100 possessions, yet they take 1.3 more threes than the dead-last Spurs (25.0).
In short, the Spurs' half court is a bit of a mess. You can alleviate that a bit if you're able to get some easy buckets in transition. Sadly, that hasn't been the case.
Despite Dejounte Murray's best efforts, the Spurs just don't run often. Via Synergy, only 14.5 percent of the Spurs' possessions come in transition, placing them 17th in the league. It's a shame because they're quite efficient (1.154 points per possession, fourth) when they do push.
Ultimately, this is a testament to their overall lack of speed. It's also a sign of a bigger issue: Their defense is falling off a cliff.
Defensive Woes
This may shock you, but it's hard to create transition opportunities if you can't force misses or turnovers. The Spurs have been bad at both of those things.
They rank 22nd or worse in the following categories: opponent field-goal percentage (46.8), opponent three-point percentage (37.6), turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0), steals per 100 possessions (6.6).
Their two saving graces come via blocks per 100 (5.5, seventh) and defensive rebound rate (74.3, sixth), but that hasn't been enough because of...[waves arms wildly at the rest of the defense]. Their 112.2 defensive rating (23rd) would be the worst mark they've had since the dreaded 1996-97 season.
It's hard to divorce DeRozan and Aldridge from the defensive issues. DeRozan has almost always been a below-average defender, despite an improved effort in recent years. Aldridge grew into a solid positional defender, but his lack of foot speed has made him a liability in space.
Playing those two at the same time caps the ceiling of any defense. Via PBP Stats, the Spurs have logged 639 minutes with DeRozan and Aldridge on the floor together. They've allowed nearly 115 points per 100 possessions in those minutes. In the 214 minutes with both of them on the bench, that number drops to 101.3.
Moving On
Both DeRozan and Aldridge have value in a vacuum. DeRozan's ability to generate buckets out of pick-and-roll and mid-post situations can lift the floor of an offense. He can consistently get to the free-throw line against single coverage, and he has improved enough as a passer to make rotating defenses pay.
Aldridge has been one of the most prolific pick-and-pop bigs of his era. He's served as a near-elite release valve in the 17-19 foot area, and he has enough diversity on the block to bully undersized defenders.
Neither guy is good enough to be a No. 1 option on a true contender, but you can build solid offenses around them if you have the requisite shooting. The Spurs lack the shooting to place around both of them. The shooters they do have—hello, Patty Mills and Bryn Forbes—aren't particularly good defenders.
Considering there isn't a path to contention with this current group, it would behoove the Spurs to flip one or both of them to get younger and/or spacy-er fits into their system.
The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor reported the Orlando Magic were interested in DeRozan back in mid-November. Of course, the Magic were off to a 3-7 start at that point and have played themselves back into the playoff race in the Eastern Conference. Still, they lack a true perimeter go-to option to complement the good but currently injured Nikola Vucevic (ankle).
If the two teams were to discuss a deal, the Spurs would rightfully push for Aaron Gordon. The talented but miscast tweener forward is a prime candidate for exploding in a new environment. Teams have been monitoring his status for some time, though it doesn't appear as though the Magic want to cut bait.
Evan Fournier would be nice consolation prize to build a package around. He's in the midst of a career year, averaging a shade under 20 points while being one of five players shooting 44 percent or better on six-plus three-point attempts per game. Fournier, 6'7", has the size to play the 3, which would open up room for the Spurs to play Murray and Derrick White together more often.
Duncan Smith of Forbes recently laid out a tremendous case for the Detroit Pistons as a potential DeRozan suitor. With Blake Griffin still a bit hobbled and Andre Drummond not equipped to create for himself consistently, there's a clear fit for DeRozan within the offense. (Derrick Rose has been quite good offensively, but if he's your best shot creator, it's hard to take you seriously as a playoff threat.)
Aldridge can be useful for a team that needs a secondary scoring option in the half court. The Portland Trail Blazers are still in the hunt for a frontcourt upgrade as they wait for Jusuf Nurkic (leg) and Zach Collins (shoulder) to return. They've been linked to Kevin Love, but Aldridge could serve as a cheaper (and more familiar) option.
The Miami Heat have been linked to Aldridge recently and have enough mid-tier, short-term salaries to make a deal work. They are equipped with a pair of frontcourt players (Kelly Olynyk, Meyers Leonard) who could help space the floor for the Spurs' young guards.
Justise Winslow remains an intriguing do-it-all wing-guard, though the Heat should be reluctant (read: adamantly against) moving him for a 34-year-old. Still, this is the kind of pseudo-star move the Heat could pursue since Aldridge's contract (up in 2021) wouldn't affect their free-agency plans that summer.
That class is famously headlined by Giannis Antetokounmpo, while other superstars like LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have player options they could decline to hop into the party.
The writing on the wall is clear. This Spurs group is far from contention. San Antonio possesses an intriguing group of young players already; Murray, White and Lonnie Walker IV are all talented defenders who need more space (and a green light in transition) to grow on the other end. Cultivating that talent is the first step in returning to glory. Moving off DeRozan or Aldridge—or both—is the most drastic way to start that process.
It's also the right way to start that process.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats come courtesy of NBA.com.
