Bowl Predictions 2019: Updated CFP Projections After Week 12 Rankings

Alabama's loss to LSU dropped the Crimson Tide out of the top four in the College Football Playoff rankings this week. That helped allow one of their SEC rivals, Georgia, to move into the No. 4 spot.

However, that doesn't necessarily mean either of those teams are favorites to make the CFP this season.

While Alabama and Georgia remain playoff contenders, both could be overtaken by some other strong teams from the Big Ten (Minnesota or Penn State), the Big 12 (Oklahoma or Baylor) or the Pac-12 (Oregon or Utah). With several weeks to go in the college football season—including some huge matchups and conference championship games—a lot can change before four teams begin the battle for the national title.

Here's a look at the current projections for the CFP and the rest of the New Year's Six bowls heading into Week 12, followed by a breakdown of the teams that are most likely to join LSU, Ohio State and Clemson in the playoff at this point.

Bowl Projections

College Football Playoff

Peach Bowl (Dec. 28): LSU vs. Oklahoma

Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 28): Ohio State vs. Clemson

New Year's Six

Cotton Bowl (Dec. 28): Cincinnati vs. Florida

Orange Bowl (Dec. 30): Wake Forest vs. Georgia

Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1): Alabama vs. Baylor

Rose Bowl (Jan. 1): Oregon vs. Minnesota

College Football Playoff Scenarios

LSU, Ohio State and Clemson hold the top three spots in the College Football Playoff rankings this week, and the only thing that will likely prevent any of those teams from missing the CFP would be a loss down the stretch. But even that might not be enough to keep out LSU and Ohio State.

LSU has the most impressive resume of any team in the country, as it owns quality victories over Alabama, Auburn, Florida and Texas. The Tigers should roll to the SEC Championship Game, where they will likely face Georgia. If they lose to the Bulldogs, they should still get into the CFP because of their success and strength of schedule.

Ohio State has some tough remaining games, as the Buckeyes face Penn State and Michigan in the final two weeks of the regular season. If they get through those, they'd head to the Big Ten Championship Game, where they would likely face another challenging opponent in Minnesota. If Ohio State loses one of those games, it could still make the playoff.

Clemson doesn't have the same luxury, as its strength of schedule is nowhere near the level of LSU's or Ohio State's. The Tigers need to go undefeated and win the ACC championship—and do so in impressive fashion—to hold onto their playoff spot.

Things are trickier when it comes to the fourth spot, which is likely part of the reason why the selection committee went with Georgia at No. 4 for the time being.

The Bulldogs' only loss was a bad one, as they fell at home in double overtime to South Carolina on Oct. 12. But they own a win over Florida, and they could potentially add two more strong victories against Auburn and in the SEC Championship Game, assuming they get there and face LSU.

But it's going to be difficult for Georgia to win the rest of its games, which is why several other playoff contenders currently have a good chance of unseating the Bulldogs.

The best of those teams is likely Oklahoma, which lost to Kansas State on Oct. 26 but also owns a win over Texas. Plus, the Sooners still have games against undefeated Baylor and Oklahoma State, then they have a potential rematch against Baylor in the Big 12 Championship Game, assuming both teams get there.

Baylor could also become the top contender for the fourth playoff spot if it stays unbeaten by defeating Oklahoma twice and beating Texas.

There's also undefeated Minnesota and Penn State in the Big Ten as potential playoff contenders. The Nittany Lions could shake things up by beating Ohio State on Nov. 23, which could also get them into the conference championship game. The Golden Gophers are in good position to reach the title game, so they could also notch a win over either Ohio State or Penn State.

If either Minnesota or Penn State wins the Big Ten title instead of Ohio State, that would make the playoff picture much more crowded.

It's also possible the Pac-12 champion will have an argument to make the playoff, whether that's Oregon or Utah. Both teams have one loss, and it's likely the Ducks and Utes will face off in the conference championship game. Assuming neither loses a game before then, the victor of that contest will also have a convincing argument for the CFP selection committee.

Surprisingly, out of all these teams, Alabama may have the toughest path to the playoff. The Crimson Tide still have a game against Auburn, but that may be their only win over a team that's currently ranked this season, and they're likely not going to be in the SEC Championship Game.

There's a lot to be decided by the playoff selection committee in a few weeks, and these upcoming games should help them sort things out—or make it even more difficult.