Mitchell Trubisky's Collapse Forcing the Bears to Face Some Tough Facts

Mitchell Trubisky's quarterback play stinks like an overflowing dumpster in the alley behind a cheap seafood joint during an August heat wave. 

But at least the Bears can no longer hide the stench or pretend not to smell it. And that could end up being the best thing for the franchise.

The Bears have a quarterback problem so acute that they cannot disguise it, overcome it with defense or pretend it can turn around. And that's a good thing, because it should prevent them from making the kind of wishful-thinking-fueled mistakes that can set an organization back for years. 

Sunday's 22-14 loss to the Eagles, which was not nearly as close as the final score might suggest, dropped the Bears' record to 3-5. They entered the season as fashionable Super Bowl sleepers. Now they have only a 2.7 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to Football Outsiders. It's time for them to start planning for life after Trubisky and consider some even more drastic measures while they still have the chance to turn things around quickly.

Despite their record, the Bears still have a championship-caliber defense with a young nucleus under contract through 2020 and beyond. They have a solid offensive line and a deep, diverse skill-position corps. Trubisky is still playing on his rookie contract, and Chicago has yet to exercise his fifth-year option, so he can be benched, traded or waived without severe cap consequences. And while "next year's quarterback draft class is stacked" is the NFL columnist equivalent of a "Free Beer Tomorrow" sign hanging over a bar, next year's draft class does appear to be stacked.

That's the good news for the Bears.

Now for the bad news.

The Bears don't have a first-round pick in 2020 because of the Khalil Mack trade. Their cap situation is tight, with more than $200 million already earmarked for keeping a supposed championship core intact, per Over the Cap. The Bears were built to win in a short window with an affordable quarterback, which is why they might have been tempted to muddle through another year of Trubisky if he didn't look like a freshman quarterback on the varsity squad who spends his weeknights playing Apex Legends instead of studying the playbook.

Oh, and there's one other problem: The longer Trubisky plays this year, the more head coach Matt Nagy will twist his game plans into stale funnel cakes to hide his quarterback's weaknesses, and the harder Chicago's defense will press in its effort to single-handedly win games. That could lead to resentment and doubt in the locker room and to great players developing bad habits, all of which could spill over into future seasons. 

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Trubisky's backslide into thundering ineptitude could jeopardize the whole Nagy/Ryan Pace era for the Bears. That's another blessing in disguise, because ownership needs to make the correct decision on the coach and GM while coming up with a new plan at quarterback.

Teams all around the NFL are succeeding with inexperienced or obscure quarterbacks this season. The Panthers replaced Cam Newton with undrafted free agent Kyle Allen and have remained in the playoff race. The Saints won five games with Teddy Bridgewater under center. (Bridgewater may not be the typical backup, but he was still available for peanuts two years ago.) The Colts are winning with Jacoby Brissett, another high-quality backup/adequate starter who was an afterthought three months ago. Matt Moore and someone named Brandon Allen won starts this week. And the Jaguars have hovered around .500 with sixth-round rookie Gardner Minshew II playing like a tipsy uncle in a tailgate pickup game in relief of Nick Foles. 

Yet Trubisky keeps developing in the wrong direction under Nagy, who appears incapable of either giving Trubisky the scaffolding he needs to avoid mistakes or filling the offense with wrinkles and gizmos to disguise weaknesses the way he did last year. It reflects poorly on both the coach and on Pace, who traded three middle-round picks to the 49ers to move up one spot in the 2017 draft to select a quarterback who now cannot handle simple don't-lose-the-game tasks.

Nagy isn't getting much hot-seat attention right now because we are all busy rubbernecking at the Jets and Browns. But he needs to steer the Bears out of this skid. If he cannot do that, then he isn't the best choice to help select and develop the Bears' next quarterback. 

In the short term, Nagy must replace Trubisky with Chase Daniel as soon as possible. Building a time machine and traveling back to make the switch after the season opener would be ideal. Nagy must then prove that he can tailor his scheme so that a game manager like Daniel can actually manage games while the defense restores the organizational dignity. Nagy remained reluctant to make the change as of Monday, which is a bad sign for a coach and organization that needs to come to grips with the obvious. 

If Nagy stabilizes the offense and the Bears can finish the season somewhere close to .500, he and Pace can then select their next quarterback. Bridgewater will be too expensive. The top rookies will likely be gone when the Bears are on the board. Newton sounds like fun until you try to assemble a trade package for him that doesn't include a first-round pick. 

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No, the Bears must go shopping for retreads or journeymen like Marcus Mariota or Andy Dalton next year and/or for the prospects who will be available with one of their two second-round picks.

It sounds depressing, but the Bears would still be in the thick of the playoff race with a Mariota, Dalton or well-chosen middle-round rookie right now. They're built to support and nurture second-tier quarterbacks, which is why Trubisky's deterioration—and Nagy's inability to cope with it so far—are so illuminating.

Bad organizations wait too long to replace failing quarterback prospects and coaches who enjoyed a year or two of defense-dominated success: see the Rex Ryan/Mark Sanchez Jets and recent Jaguars for examples. When the defense stops producing three turnovers per game and things start to go sideways, coordinators get fired, hinky Tim Tebow experiments take place, contract options inexplicably get picked up and excuses get made. Soon, disgruntled defensive superstars (Darrelle Revis, Jalen Ramsey) get tired of losing and/or antsy for new contracts and work their way out of town. The era of winning with defense and shaky quarterbacks ends, and the franchise is left with nothing but shaky quarterbacks and the coaches and execs who selected and supported them, plus a probably bloated payroll.

It all happens because teams would rather talk themselves into thinking they can turn their prized quarterback prospect around than admit that they made a mistake.

The smartest thing the Bears can do right now is to admit that they made a mistake and do everything they can not to compound it with further mistakes.

At least Trubisky is making that easy for them.

Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @MikeTanier.