How Much Is Stephen Strasburg Really Worth in the 2020 Free-Agent Market?

Teams across Major League Baseball now have a chance to sign the 2019 World Series MVP, but he won't come cheap.

After months of speculation, ace right-hander Stephen Strasburg officially entered the free-agent market Saturday when he opted out of the last four years of his seven-year, $175 million contract with the Washington Nationals.

Strasburg could have earned $100 million through 2023 by forgoing his opt-out. But as Mark Feinsand of MLB.com noted, the deferred money in the 31-year-old's deal brought the present-day value of his four remaining years down to more like $88 million.

According to MLB Network's Jon Heyman, Strasburg and agent Scott Boras want to do a lot better than that in free agency:

When last anyone saw him in uniform, Strasburg was on a postseason journey marked by a 1.98 ERA and a 47-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It culminated in him earning MVP honors as the Nationals rallied from a 3-2 deficit in the World Series to knock off the Houston Astros in seven games.

"It's just surreal," Strasburg said after Game 7 at Minute Maid Park, per Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com. "And just being able to do it with this group of guys, it's something special. Every one of those guys, we all stuck together."

Strasburg's other credentials also shout, "Ace!" He's a former No. 1 pick (2009) who's been an All-Star three times in 10 major league seasons. He ranks eighth in ERA+ and 10th in wins above replacement since 2010, according to Baseball Reference.

Still, a $200 million contract would be no small ask on the part of Strasburg and Boras. Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke and David Price are the only three pitchers to ever cross that plateau. 

Does Strasburg deserve to be the fourth?

Andrew Harnik/Associated Press

If this question is strictly about Strasburg's present ability, then he's absolutely deserving.

Even before he took center stage in October, Strasburg had already achieved something of a revolutionary season in 2019. He put up a rock-solid 3.32 ERA over a National League-high 209 innings and in a less than familiar fashion.

Through the first nine seasons of his career, Strasburg built his reputation on an electric three-pitch mix—namely, a mid-to-high-90s four-seam fastball, a knee-buckling curveball and a vanishing changeup—and elite command. From looking at his strikeout (10.8 per nine innings) and walk (2.4 per nine innings) rates, 2019 might seem to have been more of the same.

In actuality, Strasburg undertook a two-fold shift in style. He dialed down his average fastball velocity to a career-low 93.9 mph, and he overhauled his pitch mix:

Image courtesy of BaseballSavant.MLB.com

The four-seam fastball that had been at the center of so many highlights in previous years was suddenly no longer Strasburg's primary pitch. His curveball took precedence, and he essentially ditched his slider and played up his sinker.

Thus Strasburg was able to show hitters a wider variety of speeds and movements. As Eno Sarris of The Athletic highlighted, his two-seamer and changeup worked especially well together:

Among other things, Strasburg's ingenuity resulted in a career-low 71.5 contact percentage and a 51.1 ground-ball percentage that easily exceeds his career norm of 46.0 percent.

Per Statcast's xwOBA metric—which measures expected production based on strikeouts, walks and contact quality—Strasburg was the fifth-most dominant pitcher of all hurlers who faced at least 500 batters:

• 1. Gerrit Cole, HOU: .238
• 2. Justin Verlander, HOU: .248
• 3. Max Scherzer, WAS: .251
• 4. Jacob deGrom, NYM: .252
• 5. Stephen Strasburg, WAS: .263

However, this list is where nits to pick with Strasburg's free agency begin to materialize.

For one thing, he's unquestionably the second-best starter on the market after Gerrit Cole. The fellow ace righty had an all-timer of a walk year in posting an American League-best 2.50 ERA and a whopping, MLB-leading 326 strikeouts, and he was plenty dominant in his own right throughout October. To boot, the 29-year-old is two years younger than Strasburg.

Strasburg's age is also problematic in relation to Scherzer and Price, who were coming off their age-29 seasons when they cashed in for over $200 million. Though he's a year younger than Greinke was when he got his $200 million deal, a key difference is that Strasburg isn't the most durable 30-something baseball has ever known.

Though the Tommy John surgery he underwent in 2010 is the only major injury scare of his career, it's one that isn't so easily ignored. He's also had trouble with more minor injuries since then, including in each of the four seasons that preceded his 2019 campaign.

All told, Strasburg has pitched only 789.1 innings over the last five seasons. That's hundreds fewer than Scherzer, Price and Greinke pitched in their last five campaigns before free agency.

Michael Reaves/Getty Images

A more fitting comp for Strasburg is Jon Lester, who signed a six-year, $155 million contract with the Chicago Cubs in 2014.

At the time, Lester was pushing 31, and his track record consisted of ups and downs with his production and his health. Yet he also had a stellar postseason track record, and he was ultimately out to capitalize on a career-best season that he finished with a 2.46 ERA over 219.2 innings.

One noteworthy difference between Lester then and Strasburg now is that the latter was subject to and indeed received a qualifying offer Monday. Assuming he rejects it, he'll have tied himself to draft-pick compensation. That won't altogether kill his market, but it will hinder it.

But after five years of inflation and rising offense, a $150 million contract seems like a fair floor for Strasburg. And he has two possible routes to that figure: A six-year deal at $25 million per or a five-year deal at $30 million per.

Certainly, it's not out of the question that one enterprising team will be willing to up the ante. An extra year on either of those two possibilities would bump his total guarantee to $175 or $180 million.

So while $200 million is likely an unrealistic ask, Strasburg shouldn't have to settle for significantly less. He won't regret turning down the $100 million he had in hand.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.