Re-Evaluating All 30 MLB Teams Based on Preseason Expectations
Just a few short months ago, the Mets, Red Sox and Tigers seemed like safe bets to reach the 2026 MLB postseason, while the Cardinals, Nationals and White Sox appeared destined to battle the Rockies for the worst record in baseball.
Needless to say, there are quite a few preseason expectations that haven't exactly come to fruition as we near the midpoint of the regular season.
For each of the 30 teams, presented in alphabetical order, we'll compare preseason win totals to current 162-game trajectories and also highlight both a pleasant surprise and a considerable disappointment before an overall synopsis on the season thus far.
If you're only interested in our take on one particular team, you can jump straight to it here:
Arizona Diamondbacks
1 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 79.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 83.2 wins
Recent Returns: 7-12 since May 28
Pleasant Surprise: RHP Michael Soroka
Between his time with Atlanta, Washington and both Chicago clubs over the past three seasons, Soroka had a 4.91 ERA, a 4.89 FIP to match and a lot of trouble staying healthy. As a result, Arizona was able to snag him for just $7.5M on a one-year deal. He has been a gold mine, sitting at 8-3 with a 3.11 ERA and 2.93 FIP. While he's nowhere near the loaded NL Cy Young conversation, it's at least plausible he could be an All-Star with a couple more good outings.
We Were Expecting More: RHP Zac Gallen
Gallen initially declined a one-year, $22.025M qualifying offer in November, but ultimately re-signed with the Snakes in February for that amountโhoping that 2026 would be the lucrative springboard into free agency that the 2025 campaign was supposed to be for him. But with Gallen allowing hits at one of the highest rates in the majors and striking out opponents at nowhere near his previous rates, that simply has not been the case.
Overall Evaluation: On Track
It's a shame that Corbin Burnes' return from Tommy John surgery has been delayed until at least September and that only two-fifths of this starting rotation has been any good, but Arizona is the roughly .500 ballclub it was expected to be. Whether that means buying or selling at the deadline, though, remains to be seen.
Athletics
2 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 75.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 78.8 wins
Recent Returns: 8-7 in June
Pleasant Surprise: RHP J.T. Ginn
In his previous two seasons in the majors, Ginn had a 4.85 ERA. His 4.48 ERA in five seasons in the minors wasn't much more promising. And he didn't even open this season in the starting rotation, serving in a bulk relief role before replacing Luis Morales in mid-April. But since then, Ginn has a 2.69 ERA and six quality starts, including that near no-hitter-turned-heartbreaking-loss against the Angels last month. Out of nowhere, he has become their ace.
We Were Expecting More: DH Brent Rooker
Over the past three seasons, Rooker had an .853 OPS and averaged 33 home runs. But the two-time All-Star hasn't been himself this year, saddled with a .670 OPS while on the IL for a second time. If he was hitting like usual alongside Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers, the A's would perhaps have the most prolific offense in the majors right now.
Overall Evaluation: Marginally Better Than Expected
Pitching has been an adventure for sure, culminating in that 23-9 loss to the Rockies this past Sunday in Las Vegas. But the A's spent a good chunk of the first two months alone in first place in the AL West and remain in decent shape for a playoff spot today. And when this offense is clicking like it has been lately (102 runs in last 17 games), anything seems possible.
Atlanta Braves
3 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 86.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 102.1 wins
Recent Returns: 4-7 in last 11 games
Pleasant Surprise: RHP Bryce Elder
He has had a couple of duds recently against the Red Sox and Mets, but Elder had a 1.97 ERA with eight quality starts within his first 11 turns through the rotation this season. Considering he had a 5.30 ERA in 2025 after an even worse 6.52 mark in 2024, Elder almost certainly would not have even opened this season in the rotation if at least two of Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep had been healthy. But he seized the opportunity and set the tone for a team-wide 40-19 start.
We Were Expecting More: SS Ha-Seong Kim
Kim opened the year on the IL with a torn tendon in his right middle finger, but this one-year, $20M shortstop has been pretty much unplayable since making his return in mid-May, both batting and slugging .085 in 66 trips to the plate. Worse yet, after committing no errors in 361 innings in the field in 2025, this 2023 Gold Glove recipient committed three errors within his first seven games back.
Overall Evaluation: Much Better Than Expected
Atlanta has been more than a little mortal over the past two weeks, finding itself in the painfully familiar position of waiting on both Ronald Acuรฑa Jr. and Spencer Strider to return from the IL. Yet, the Braves maintain one of the best records in baseball behind the strength of a bullpen that has been virtually impenetrable.
Baltimore Orioles
4 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 85.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 75.6 wins
Recent Returns: 12-10 since Memorial Day
Pleasant Surprise: RHP Rico Garcia
A 32-year-old journeyman middle reliever who had logged a grand total of 70 innings of work with seven different franchises over the past seven years, Garcia wasn't exactly earmarked as a key piece of Baltimore's puzzle heading into this campaign. But through his first 20 appearances, he tossed 19.0 innings of one-hit ball, even becoming the go-to choice in save situations once Ryan Helsley landed on the IL. Garcia has come back to earth a good bit over the past month, but he may well be Baltimore's representative at the All-Star Game.
We Were Expecting More: LHP Trevor Rogers
Could also go with Tyler O'Neill's .549 OPS in this spot, but he was a colossal disappointment last year, too. Rogers, on the other hand, was a phenomenon over the latter half of last season, making 18 starts with a 1.81 ERA. However, he has been much more of a punching bag this year with a 7.47 ERA over his last 10 startsโthough he did finally record a quality start against San Diego's hapless offense this past weekend.
Overall Evaluation: Mo' Money, Mo' Problems
The O's did some serious spending, newly adding the eight-figure luxury tax hits of Pete Alonso, Shane Baz, Taylor Ward, Chris Bassitt and Ryan Helsley, while also bringing back Zach Eflin and Andrew Kittredge as part of a payroll well north of $200M. It hasn't done them any good, though, pitching poorly as a whole and floundering in a wide-open race for the AL's last wild card spot.
Boston Red Sox
5 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 87.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 66.2 wins
Recent Returns: 7-15 in last 22 games
Pleasant Surprise: LHP Payton Tolle
With the offseason additions of Ranger Suรกrez, Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo to a rotation that already had Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, Connelly Early and more, Tolle was never supposed to be part of the 2026 equation in Beantown. But since getting called up in late April, this mustachioed goofball has been both a breath of fresh air and a source of strong outings for an otherwise woebegone team.
We Were Expecting More: OF Roman Anthony
Anthony has been out since early May with a ring finger injury that even has doctors baffled. But before the injury, he played in 30 games with one home run and a .675 OPS that left Red Sox fans begging for more production out of the 22-year-old who had two home runs and a .920 OPS in the World Baseball Classic. Garrett Crochet, Trevor Story, Brayan Bello and plenty of others have been more disappointing. But dreams of Anthony becoming the face of the franchise this year have turned into nightmares.
Overall Evaluation: Biggest Underachiever of All
Even with Crochet saddled with a 6.30 ERA in six appearances, Boston's pitching has been more than adequate. But aside from Willson Contreras, the Red Sox offense has been a frigid wasteland. They've scored more than 10 runs in a game just once this season, and they fired Alex Cora a few hours after that brief ray of hope.
Chicago Cubs
6 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 88.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 84.2 wins
Recent Returns: 12-24 in last 36 games (but 10-10 in last 20)
Pleasant Surprise: CF Pete Crow-Armstrong
It's not at all surprising that PCA is having a good year. After all, he just had 31 home runs and 35 stolen bases while winning a Gold Glove last season. But did anyone have him down for "most valuable position player in the National League according to both bWAR and fWAR" good? Because that's where he's at after hitting for the cycle on Monday amid a 17-game stretch with a 1.374 OPS.
We Were Expecting More: The Starting Rotation
In an ideal world, Justin Steele would've been back by now, thriving alongside Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd atop a top five rotation. Instead, all three are on the IL while the only Cubs starting pitcher providing any real value (Ben Brown) was a middle reliever for the first six weeks before being forced into the rotation due to lack of healthy arms. Can they possibly do enough adding at the trade deadline to address this black hole?
Overall Evaluation: What a Roller Coaster
By May 8, Chicago had two separate 10-game winning streaks under its belt and the best record in baseball (27-12). Fourteen losses in 16 games later, the Cubs were barely .500 and out of the playoff picture thanks to a lifeless offense and an injury-ravaged pitching staff. Since then, they've been just kind of treading water. But is another steep climb or drop just around the bend?
Chicago White Sox
7 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 67.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 85.5 wins
Recent Returns: 21-13 since May 9
Pleasant Surprise: 3B Miguel Vargas
Davis Martin would've been the no-brainer pick here a couple weeks ago. But because he has been lit up twice in his past three outings, let's roll with Vargas, who has already set or matched career highs in both home runs (16) and stolen bases (10) while blossoming into a major asset at the hot corner. Quite the 180 from the disastrous .387 OPS that he gave the White Sox over the final two months of the 2024 campaign.
We Were Expecting More: LHP Shane Smith
Smith was a Rule 5 draft pick who became a surprise All-Star in 2025, making 29 starts with a 3.81 ERA. But he made just three appearances with a 10.80 ERA before getting demoted to Triple-A Charlotte and suffering a shoulder injury a few weeks later. He hasn't been seen since, and it's hard to believe the White Sox have been this successful while getting nothing out of their Opening Day starter.
Overall Evaluation: Well Ahead of Schedule
Whether they'll ultimately make the postseason remains to be seen, but how wild is it that the White Soxโfresh off a three-year stretch with a 162-324 recordโwould be the AL's No. 2 seed if the season ended today? Even losing Munetaka Murakami to a hamstring strain in late May has done nothing to slow down a team that went 4-1 against the Braves and Dodgers last week.
Cincinnati Reds
8 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 80.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 77.6 wins
Recent Returns: 15-27 since May 1
Pleasant Surprise: OF JJ Bleday
Non-tendered by the A's this past November, Bleday has not stopped mashing since signing his $1.4M deal with the Reds. He had a 1.047 OPS in spring training, a 1.120 OPS in 24 games played at Triple-A Louisville and a .940 OPS since making it back to the big leagues in late April. Through his first 43 games with the Reds, he had a 162-game pace of 49 home runs.
We Were Expecting More: RHP Brady Singer
The Reds gave up former NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India to acquire Singer last winter, and he immediately led the team in innings pitched with a solid 4.03 ERA. And with this being his final season before free agency, Cincinnati was hoping Singer would be better than ever in 2026. Instead, he has been serving up home runs left and right and striking out opponents at a career-worst rate en route to a 5.32 ERA.
Overall Evaluation: Started Strong, But Quickly Faded
The Reds were leading the loaded NL Central at the end of April, but it was smoke, mirrors and an unsustainably great record in one-run games. With a dreadful bullpen, Hunter Greene yet to make his 2026 debut, both Singer and Nick Lodolo taking massive steps backward from last season and now Elly De La Cruz on the IL for the first time in his career, the Reds have been unable to get into any sort of groove for seven weeks at this point.
Cleveland Guardians
9 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 79.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 85.4 wins
Recent Returns: 5-10 in last 15 games
Pleasant Surprise: 2B Travis Bazzana
Bazzana was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft, so we can't exactly pretend to be surprised that he's a good player. But after an oblique injury derailed what might have been his ascension to the big leagues last year, it was anyone's guess if or when he'd get the call in 2026. Late April, as it turns out, and he has been an everyday staple since his arrival, quickly becoming one of Cleveland's most reliable contributors with a .747 OPS and 11 stolen bases through 43 games.
We Were Expecting More: OF George Valera
This former top prospect finally got the call last September and even delivered a home run in the postseason. Had he not been hampered by a calf strain during spring training, Valera presumably would have been Cleveland's starting left fielder on Opening Day. But when he did return from the injury in mid-April, he lasted 13 games with a .534 OPS before getting sent back to Triple-A Columbus. And a few days ago, he was even designated for assignment. Quite the rapid fall from grace.
Overall Evaluation: A Perennial Overachiever, Trying To Hang On
Cleveland's offense has not been good, flirting with dead last in the majors in runs per game. That situation instantly grew more dire with Josรฉ Ramรญrez's broken hamate suffered on Saturday. However, the Guardians have managed to tread water atop the AL Central, better than expected thanks to a bullpen that seemingly never blows a lead. New year; same old frugal story.
Colorado Rockies
10 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 55.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 60.5 wins
Recent Returns: 15-30 since April 30
Pleasant Surprise: RHP Antonio Senzatela
You're not going to find many 31-year-olds with more than 800 innings of experience who qualify as a pleasant surprise. But transitioning from the starting rotation to a bulk relief role has revitalized Senzatela's career. He had a 6.65 ERA and 1.84 WHIP last season, both of which ranked dead-last (and by a wide margin) among pitchers who logged at least 130 innings. But now he has a 2.29 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, throwing harder than ever before since he'll never need to throw more than maybe 40 pitches in an appearance.
We Were Expecting More: SS Ezequiel Tovar
Two seasons ago, Tovar had 26 home runs and an NL-best 45 doubles in his age-22 campaign. It was the first season of his seven-year, $63.5M extension that looked like one heck of a bargain for what might be the next Troy Tulowitzki. He took a big step backward during an injury-plagued 2025 campaign and has regressed even further this year, saddled with a sub-.600 OPS and a negative bWAR.
Overall Evaluation: Settling Into Their Basement Home
Things are definitely going better than last year's 119-loss fiasco, but talk about a low bar to clear. The Rockies are still on pace for what would be their fourth consecutive season with at least 100 losses, which has not happened to any team since the New York Mets' first four years as a franchise (1962-65). At least those Mets won a World Series a few years later?
Detroit Tigers
11 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 85.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 65.7 wins
Recent Returns: 8-6 in June
Pleasant Surprise: SS/3B Kevin McGonigle
The 21-year-old McGonigle entered the year as one of the highest rated prospects in the world. However, go look at Roki Sasaki last year or Jackson Holliday in 2024 if you need a reminder of how un-guaranteed instant success is, even for the best of the best prospects. McGonigle has defied that recent trend in a huge way, becoming one of the precious few things about this Tigers team that hasn't been a disappointment. He has an .818 OPS and is flirting with leading the majors in WAR.
We Were Expecting More: UTIL Zach McKinstry
Plenty of negative WAR options to choose from here, several of whom are making north of $10M. But McKinstry was an All-Star last season, posting a career-best .771 OPS while joining Corbin Carroll and Jarren Duran as the only players with at least 10 doubles, triples, home runs and stolen bases. This year, he has a .502 OPS, good for dead last among players with at least 160 plate appearances. And instead of double digits in those four aforementioned categories, he has a combined total of seven.
Overall Evaluation: Frantically Printing Fire Sale Flyers
Between promoting McGonigle, keeping Tarik Skubal and Gleyber Torres and bringing aboard Framber Valdez, Kenley Jansen and Justin Verlander, the Tigers really should have been the team to beat in the AL Central; maybe the best team in the entire American League. But at 14 games below .500, they're on track to be slapping a bunch of "For Sale" stickers on their roster ahead of the trade deadline.
Houston Astros
12 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 86.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 74.6 wins
Recent Returns: 15-10 since May 20
Pleasant Surprise: RHP Peter Lambert
Here's a little glimpse into how unexpected Lambert's 11 starts with a 3.23 ERA has been: Steamer preseason projections had him penciled in for 1.0 inning of work, while ZiPS didn't have him pitching in the majors at all this season. But Houston's rotation has been so hopelessly riddled with injury that its only choice was to hand the ball to a guy who had a career 6.28 ERA in his four seasons with the Rockies before spending last season in Japan. It worked out wonderfully, though.
We Were Expecting More: 2B Jose Altuve
On the one hand, it's impressive that Altuve is still providing any sort of value in his age-36 season. If he gets to 15 home runs (currently at seven), he would become the first 36 or older second baseman to do so since Jeff Kent hit 20 in 2007. On the other hand, Altuve is Houston's highest-paid player, making $33M this season for a WAR of effectively zero.
Overall Evaluation: Disappointing, But Lurking
Remove 2020 from the equation and the Astros had won at least 84 games in 10 consecutive seasons. The expectation was for that to continue, but they are instead six games below .500. However, that's better than a month ago when they were 11 games under .500, and it's good enough to be just two games back in the wild card race and within 3.5 games of first place in the AL West. And with Hunter Brown looking solid in his return from the IL on Tuesday, postseason dreams remain very much alive.
Kansas City Royals
13 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 82.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 64.8 wins
Recent Returns: 11-24 since Mother's Day
Pleasant Surprise: RHP Stephen Kolek
At last year's trade deadline, the Padres gave the Royals both Kolek and Ryan Bergert for Freddy Fermin. And while Fermin has been unable to hit the broad side of a barn this year in San Diego, Kolek has blossomed into one of the most reliable arms in Kansas City. After opening the year on the IL with an oblique strain, he has made eight starts with a 2.68 ERA, including tossing one of the six complete-game shutouts that have been recorded in all of MLB this season.
We Were Expecting More: 1B Vinnie Pasquantino
Pasquatch led the Royals in both home runs (32) and RBI (113) last season, doing his darnedest to bolster an offense that still nearly ranked dead last in the AL in scoring. But his disappearing act this year (6 HR, 32 RBI) is maybe the biggest reason this offense is even worse than it was in 2025. Adding injury to insult, Pasquantino suffered a broken hamate last weekend and might be out until the end of July.
Overall Evaluation: Wasting Another Great Bobby Witt Jr. Season
Witt just about single-handedly carried this team to the postseason in 2024, but even his MVP-caliber heroics haven't been enough to overcome a pitching staff that is on pace to allow 130 more runs than last year. Losing Carlos Estรฉvez after just one appearance was an abruptly early beginning of the end for a team whose bullpen has been terrible.
Los Angeles Angels
14 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 70.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 64.8 wins
Recent Returns: 13-11 since May 22
Pleasant Surprise: CF Mike Trout
Expressing Trout's statistics in 162-game paces has been common practice for years now, as he had missed more games (414) than he had games played (396) over the past half-decade. But the three-time AL MVP has played in 74 of 75 games this season, this after appearing in 101 of the Angels' final 107 games last year. The pleasant surprise isn't that he's homering at a 162-game pace of 37. It's that he might actually play enough to get there.
We Were Expecting More: RHP Grayson Rodriguez
In order for the Angels to amount to anything this season, it felt like the newly acquired Rodriguez was going to need to be healthier and more productive than ever before. After all, they otherwise had an extremely uneventful offseason in their so-called quest to improve upon back-to-back years in dead last in the AL West. So for him to have an 8.06 ERA in just six appearances in between stints on the IL speaks volumes to how this season is going for them.
Overall Evaluation: Sub-.500 Business As Usual
If you ignore that pesky little 30-game stretch from mid-April into mid-May in which they went 6-24 and got outscored by a 172-88 margin, the Angels haven't been half bad. They started 11-10 and they've had a winning record over the past four weeks with Reid Detmers rapidly becoming one of the most coveted trade targets for this summer. Yet, an 11th consecutive losing season is all but guaranteed for this franchise that is going nowhere in a hurry.
Los Angeles Dodgers
15 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 103.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 103.7 wins
Recent Returns: 24-9 since May 13
Pleasant Surprise: CF Andy Pages
Though he did provide the iconic catch in the ultimate "playing in the backyard dream" spot (bases loaded, two outs, tie game, bottom of the ninth inning, Game 7 of the World Series), Pages went 4-for-51 at the plate during the 2025 postseason. Following the acquisition of Kyle Tucker, Pages could have entered this season in a part-time role if Tommy Edman and/or Enrique Hernรกndez had been healthy. Instead, he was a blistering inferno through the first few weeks and has been the Dodgers' most valuable player not named Ohtani.
We Were Expecting More: SS Mookie Betts
In nearly winning NL MVP in 2023, Betts hit .307 with 39 home runs and a .987 OPS. The following year, he hit .289 with an .863 OPS. Last year, it was a .258 batting average and a .732 OPS. Now, he's down to .203 and .633, respectively. The good news is that six of his eight hardest-hit balls of the season have come in June, and the expected data says he should be hitting more like .270, suffering from horrid BABIP luck. All the same, he has been one of the weakest links of this juggernaut.
Overall Evaluation: They Are Who We Thought They Were
Things started out a bit shaky when the Dodgers were 24-18 and looking up at the Padres in the NL West standings. But they have since run away with first place in the division, even with Tommy Edman just making his season debut on Wednesday while Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Edwin Dรญaz have combined for fewer than 50 innings pitched to date. Could be a photo finish on that 103.5 win total, though.
Miami Marlins
16 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 72.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 79.9 wins
Recent Returns: 11-4 in June
Pleasant Surprise: C/1B/DH Liam Hicks
Hicks had a respectable debut year in 2025, but nothing to suggest he would be "almost twice as many home runs as his closest teammate" good in 2026. Granted, that stat is as damning of the rest of Miami's offense as it is effusive in praise of Hicks' 13 home runs. But after slugging .346 as a rookie, he's up to .481 this year.
We Were Expecting More: RHP Pete Fairbanks
It was a strange decision when the Marlinsโwho otherwise have just one player (Sandy Alcantara) making more than $4M this seasonโspent $13M for one year of a closer. But at least the ninth inning would be a strength for the Fish, right? Well, no. Fairbanks has a 6.75 ERA, converting just nine out of a possible 13 save situations. Quite the far cry from his last four seasons with the Rays.
Overall Evaluation: Maybe Not Selling Sandy Alcantara After All?
From April 2 through May 31, Miami went 22-33 and looked destined to be a deadline seller. But the Marlins caught fire once the calendar flipped to June and entered play this past Monday at a perfectly mediocre .500 with a zero run differential. We'll see if they have any staying power, but they've become interesting in a hurry.
Milwaukee Brewers
17 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 84.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 102.7 wins
Recent Returns: 32-13 since April 25
Pleasant Surprise: LHP Kyle Harrison
Harrison went to Boston last June as part of the Rafael Devers trade and was subsequently shipped to Milwaukee in the Caleb Durbin trade. At the time, it was unclear if he would be a part of the Brewers starting rotation. But now, Harrison is probably destined for the All-Star Game, making 13 starts with a 2.47 ERA and an 11.0 K/9 that would be getting a lot more attention were he not operating in the shadows of Jacob Misiorowski's spotlight.
We Were Expecting More: OF Sal Frelick
Frelick was a clear asset over the past two seasons, winning a Gold Glove in 2024 before posting a 111 OPS+ in 2025. But this year, he's neither playing great defense nor hitting worth a darn, slugging nearly 100 points worse than last year and last homering in April.
Overall Evaluation: No Freddy Peralta? No Problem.
The Brewers started out 13-13, quickly slipping into last place in the NL Central. But since then, they've been the hottest team in the majors, with Miz becoming the biggest "must watch" sensation in the game today. Maybe one of these years, we'll all learn that this team doesn't do rebuilding years? That 84.5 win total sure is looking disrespectful right about now for a team that has won at least 86 games in each of the last eight 162-game seasons.
Minnesota Twins
18 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 72.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 75.6 wins
Recent Returns: 8-7 in June
Pleasant Surprise: RHP Taj Bradley
He has come back to earth in a big way over the past few weeks, but Bradley was sensational out of the gates as the Twins got out to an 11-7 start. He had a 1.25 ERA through his first four starts and was still 5-1 with a 2.77 ERA when Memorial Day arrived. This from a guy who had a career 4.86 ERA and a 0.8 bWAR through his first three seasons in the bigs.
We Were Expecting More: OF Matt Wallner
From 2023-25, Wallner appeared in 255 games with an .838 OPS, operating at a 162-game pace of 31 home runs. Aside from Byron Buxton and maybe Ryan Jeffers, his bat was the one Minnesota needed the most in order to overachieve its way to the postseason. But he was a disaster, striking out in nearly 40 percent of his plate appearances and posting a .551 OPS before getting demoted in mid-May. (Might be back soon, though. He has been hitting well at Triple-A St. Paul.)
Overall Evaluation: Stuck in "No Man's Land" Yet Again
The Twins have been marginally better than expected and find themselves within shouting distance of a spot in the postseason. They could even be a red-hot week away from first place in the AL Central. But are they good enough to legitimately go for it? Or will they sell off what they can at the deadline while falling short of the ALCS for a 24th consecutive year? (Still looking like the latter, but stay tuned.)
New York Mets
19 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 90.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 72.2 wins
Recent Returns: 11-8 since May 27
Pleasant Surprise: OF A.J. Ewing
Even though outfield was a big question mark for the Mets throughout the offseason, Ewing was never expected to be part of the plan. The fourth-round pick in the 2023 draft was still playing Single-A ball last August. He hit well in spring training, though. He did the same in his brief stays at both Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Syracuse. So they gave him a shot in mid-May, and he has been a bit of a spark plug in center field.
We Were Expecting More: 3B Bo Bichette
Bichette is finally enjoying a hot streak at the dish, going 24-for-55 (.436 AVG) over his last 13 games. However, those good times only began to roll after he triple-slashed .213/.271/.299 through the Mets' first 61 games of the year. And for a $42M luxury tax salary hit that ranks fifth highest in all of baseball, getting a diesel engine that took more than two months to warm up was a most unfortunate investment for the Mets.
Overall Evaluation: Money Can't Buy Happiness
Between Bichette, Jorge Polanco, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver, the Mets invested $239M this offseasonโnot to mention trading for Freddy Peralta and Luis Robert Jr.โwith plans of bouncing back in a big way from missing last year's postseason on a tiebreaker. But they have been a colossal disappointment, seemingly needing a miracle to right this ship in time to avoid a trade deadline fire sale.
New York Yankees
20 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 90.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 101.3 wins
Recent Returns: 8-1 in last nine games
Pleasant Surprise: 1B/DH Paul Goldschmidt
When the Yankees brought back 38-year-old Goldschmidt on a one-year, $4M deal, it felt like a "Let's make sure we have something in case Ben Rice doesn't pan out as an everyday first baseman" sort of decision. But after two more hits Wednesday night, Goldy is up to a .301 batting average and absolutely destroying southpaws to the tune of a 1.232 OPS.
We Were Expecting More: C Austin Wells
Wells hit 21 home runs last season and had a .717 OPS across his first three years in the big leagues. The Yankees were banking on him to hold down the fort as their primary backstop and a respectable source of offense. But in 47 games played before hitting the IL with cervical headaches, Wells had a .533 OPS and just seven runs batted in.
Overall Evaluation: Weathering the Injury Storm Admirably
The Yankees didn't have Gerrit Cole or Carlos Rodรณn until mid-May. They also lost Max Fried to the IL in between the season debuts of Rodรณn and Cole. Giancarlo Stanton has been out of commission since late April. And Aaron Judge hit the shelf with a stress fracture right as May turned into June. Yet, the Yankees have the best record in the American League and have become the pretty clear favorite to represent the AL in the World Series. Rice might win AL MVP. Cam Schlittler might win AL Cy Young. The Knicks won an NBA title. Fun times in New York.
Philadelphia Phillies
21 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 89.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 87.6 wins
Recent Returns: 31-15 since firing Rob Thomson in late April
Pleasant Surprise: OF Brandon Marsh
Most of Philadelphia's big contributors have been exactly who you expect. Kyle Schwarber. Bryce Harper. Zack Wheeler. Cristopher Sรกnchez. But Marsh triple-slashing .323/.357/.500 has been a fun development. He has previously never made enough plate appearances to even qualify for a batting title, but he might win that title this year. He should also be an All-Star for the first time with the game being held in Philly.
We Were Expecting More: SS Trea Turner
Turner won the second batting title of his career last season, hitting .304 while posting an OPS of .812. It brought his career marks to .297 and .827, respectively. But this year? He's at .223 and .608, striking out at the highest rate of his career. What's strange, though, is that Turner still ranks among the fastest players in the league, per Baseball Savant's sprint speed leaderboard, but his infield hit percentage is drastically lower than usual. Maybe a couple of dribbler singles will help him turn things around.
Overall Evaluation: Started Ugly, Sitting Pretty
The Phillies were 9-19 and had an MLB-worst minus-54 run differential when they pulled the plug on Rob Thomson. Since thenโwith more than a little help from getting Zack Wheeler back from the ILโthey've been one of the most consistently victorious teams in the majors. They are now in great shape for a wild card spot.
Pittsburgh Pirates
22 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 78.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 82.1 wins
Recent Returns: 5-9 in last 14 games
Pleasant Surprise: RHP Braxton Ashcraft
Ashcraft had a solid rookie season in 2025, giving the Pirates a 2.71 ERA in 69.2 innings of work. However, he was a spot starter / bulk reliever who never once went six or more innings in any of his 26 appearances. Compare that to his 15 turns through the rotation this season, in which he has averaged better than six innings per appearance and has a team-high nine quality starts. Paul Skenes justifiably gets all of the attention, but Ashcraft's ascension to "strong No. 2 in the rotation" has been massive.
We Were Expecting More: DH Marcell Ozuna
We've done an awful lot of harping on Ozuna already this season, but the beatings will continue until morale/OPS improves. The Pirates invested $12M in Ozuna in mid-February, hoping he would be the final piece of their offensive puzzle. He is batting .198 with a .595 OPS and has barely even been playing in recent weeks. In place of 2023-24 Ozuna (79 HR, .916 OPS), they got an even worse version of 2021-22 Ozuna (30 HR, .675 OPS).
Overall Evaluation: Struggling Recently, But Still in the Mix
It's June 19 and the Pirates have a winning record. That hasn't been a true statement since 2015, which was also the last time they made the postseason. Can they hang around until Konnor Griffin returns from his forearm strain, hopefully in late June? And until Oneil Cruz is back from his fractured hand somewhere around the All-Star break? Lack of depth was always going to be a concern if the injury bug ever came around.
San Diego Padres
23 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 83.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 84.3 wins
Recent Returns: 7-15 since May 23
Pleasant Surprise: RHP Walker Buehler
After missing all of 2023, Buehler had a 5.10 ERA and a minus-1.3 bWAR between the 2024 and 2025 campaigns. He had fallen so far from grace that San Diego was able to sign him to a minor league deal in mid-February. And while he hasn't been anything close to a Cy Young contender, he has a 2.92 ERA over his last seven starts and a respectable 4.14 mark in 14 appearances this season. Pretty hard to argue with that level of production for $1.5M.
We Were Expecting More: 3B Manny Machado
In season No. 4 of his 11-year, $350M contract, has the turns-34-in-less-than-a-month Machado fallen off a cliff like Miguel Cabrera did at the same point in his career? Or has it just been a couple of rough months with a .177 batting average? Either way, the Padres have been fading fast over the past four weeks, and though he leads the team with 12 home runs and 36 RBI, Machado isn't doing much to stop their bleeding.
Overall Evaluation: Surged Early, Sub-Mediocre Lately
Last year, the Padres started out 14-3 and basically played .500 baseball from there. They made the postseason with room to spare, but never much felt like a serious threat to win the World Series. Similarly, they started an MLB-best 18-8 this year, but have been nothing special since then, forever waiting on their high-priced stars to actually perform like high-priced stars.
San Francisco Giants
24 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 80.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 67.9 wins
Recent Returns: 8-5 in last 13 games
Pleasant Surprise: 1B/DH Bryce Eldridge
San Francisco was averaging an MLB-worst 3.1 runs per game when it finally called up this top prospect in early May. But since May 18, Eldridge has the fourth-highest OPS (1.113) in the majors while the Giants have averaged 5.4 runs per game. It's almost certainly too little too late, but it's good to know they have a young star to rebuild around.
We Were Expecting More: C Patrick Bailey
Hitting never had been a strength of this defensive specialist. In his first three seasons in the majors, though, Bailey did just enough at the dish (.230/.387/.340) to justify giving him as many starts as possible behind the plate. But after 30 games with a .396 OPS this year, Buster Posey had seen enough and traded the two-time Gold Glove recipient to Cleveland.
Overall Evaluation: One of Two Teams 7+ Games Out of Playoff Picture
It's kind of funny that the Giants have started winning games now that we keep hearing reports about their intention to dangle the likes of Rafael Devers, Willy Adames and Matt Chapman on the trade block. But it's going to take much more than two weeks of "three games above .500 baseball" to salvage what has been a mess befitting of a major fire sale.
Seattle Mariners
25 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 89.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 82.1 wins
Recent Returns: 13-8 since Memorial Day
Pleasant Surprise: The Two Emersons
Shortstop Colt Emerson was one of the top prospects in all of baseball heading into this season, but he would still be at Triple-A Tacoma if Brendan Donovan had been able to stay healthy. Instead, Emerson has an .827 OPS since making his MLB debut on May 17. Meanwhile, former top prospect and No. 6 overall pick in 2020 Emerson Hancock entered 2026 with a career ERA of 4.81 in 37 appearances, but he has blossomed into maybe the most valuable arm on this staff.
We Were Expecting More: C Cal Raleigh
Raleigh and his 60 home runs really ought to have been named AL MVP last season, but would you kindly let us know when the Big Dumper gets to 60 total bases this year? He was sidelined for a month with an oblique strain that was surely impacting his swing for a bit, but he is slugging .317 compared to .589 last year. ("Honorable" mention to Andrรฉs Muรฑoz, too, who blew five of his first 14 save chances.)
Overall Evaluation: Underachieving, But Still Clear Favorite in AL West
With Raleigh, Muรฑoz, Luis Castillo and Josh Naylor all sputtering to negative WARs, it's honestly impressive that the Mariners have a winning record in the AL West driver's seat. They could have done without losing Randy Arozarena to the IL right as Raleigh and JP Crawford were coming back, but things are trending in the right direction for what was one of the preseason favorites to reach the World Series.
St. Louis Cardinals
26 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 69.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 90.0 wins
Recent Returns: 9-4 in last 13 games
Pleasant Surprise: RF Jordan Walker
Walker always had the raw power to be special. But in 162 MLB games played between 2024 and 2025, he had just 11 home runs and a .595 OPS, averaging 16 strikeouts per homer. Coming into the season, it felt like this was going to be the last chance for the former top prospect to prove he belongs in the majors. But with 18 home runs and 56 RBI, what Walker has proven is that he belongs in the All-Star Game.
We Were Expecting More: SS Masyn Winn
Pick any of the many preseason projections accessible on FanGraphs and you'll find that Winn was supposed to be the most valuable player on the Cardinals roster in 2026. But he hasn't been. Not even close. In fact, with both Victor Scott II and Nolan Gorman recently demoted, Winn has the worst OPS (.630) among the 13 position players on the active roster. His defense has also paled in comparison to what garnered him a Gold Glove in 2025.
Overall Evaluation: Ahead of Schedule...And Here to Stay This Time?
Even when the Cardinals were 47-38 near the end of June last year, it always felt like they were a long shot for the playoffs; far more likely to sell than buy at the trade deadline. But despite selling both at last year's deadline and even more so throughout the offseason, the Cardinals refuse to go away in the slightest and just might have to do a fair amount of buying this summer. They most likely won't go this far, but it sure would be a game changer if this is where Tarik Skubal lands for a few months.
Tampa Bay Rays
27 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 76.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 93.5 wins
Recent Returns: 7-15 since May 23
Pleasant Surprise: RHP Bryan Baker
Even by Tampa Bay's stingy standards, it was surprising when the Rays declined their $12.5M club option to bring closer Pete Fairbanks back for one more year. But, apparently, they knew Baker was headed for a breakthrough year at 31 years old. He had a 3.86 ERA and four saves across his first five seasons in the majors, but he is at 1.91 and 18, respectively. Baker, Mason Miller and Jhoan Duran are the only pitchers with at least 15 saves and a sub-2.00 ERA.
We Were Expecting More: LHP Steven Matz
The Rays brought in two veteran arms in free agency this past winter. One of them (Nick Martinez) has been sensational, possibly headed for the All-Star Game. The other (Matz) has blundered his way out of the rotation with a 16.88 ERA over his last five appearances. At this point, converted set-up guy Griffin Jax is their No. 4 starter while a great big question mark resides at No. 5 in the rotation.
Overall Evaluation: Sputtering in Orbit
The Rays have kind of quietly put together the worst record in the majors over the past four weeks, even getting swept at home by the Tigers. During that stretch, they've gone from 5.5 games up in the AL East to 3.5 games behind the Yankees. Despite that prolonged hiccup, though, they're on pace to finish +17 compared to their preseason win total. Just got to turn things back around before too much longer.
Texas Rangers
28 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 83.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 77.7 wins
Recent Returns: 7-7 in June; 19-19 in last 38 games
Pleasant Surprise: LHP Jacob Latz
Prior to this season, Latz wasn't even a high-leverage reliever for the Rangers. His lone career save was one of those "pitched the final three innings of a blowout" oddities that counts as a save for some reason. He otherwise had 10 holds and three blown saves. But in 15 appearances dating back to April 25, Latz has 12 saves, one win and one blown save with a 1.83 ERA. And in six of those saves, he recorded at least four outs.
We Were Expecting More: SS Corey Seager
Even prior to the recent spate of injuriesโhe missed 20 games with back inflammation before landing back on the IL with a concussion suffered in his fifth game back in the lineupโSeager was not his usual self. He started hot with three home runs in his first six games, but hit .157/.260/.291 across his next 36 contests. The Rangers need way more than that from their $325M man.
Overall Evaluation: Forever Treading Water
Reminiscent of the Cincinnati Reds last season, it feels like the Rangers are within three games of .500 every single time we check the standings. And, well, that's pretty much exactly what was expected from a team that both opened the season and is currently listed as a virtual coin flip to make the playoffs. The offense needs to improve if they're going to remain in the hunt, though.
Toronto Blue Jays
29 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 88.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 78.8 wins
Recent Returns: 7-9 in last 16 games
Pleasant Surprise: RHP Louis Varland
Quite the run on surprising closers here in the "T" section of the alphabet, but Varland has been the most impressive of the bunch. He didn't have a single save in his first 112 appearances over the past four seasons, but beggars couldn't be choosers as Jeff Hoffman was blowing saves left and right through the first few weeks. Toronto handed the reins to Varland in late April and he has since given them 14 saves, two holds, no blown saves and a 1.30 ERA.
We Were Expecting More: DH George Springer
While the entire world has marveled at the fact that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. entered play on Thursday with just three home runs this season, at least he is batting .280 and providing some value. Springer, on the other hand, has a .677 OPS after last year's plunge into the Fountain of Youth for a .959 OPS. By bWAR standards, he was the most valuable Blue Jay in 2025 at a +4.8. He's currently at a -0.1.
Overall Evaluation: Disappointing, But In Good Shape
In the National League, the Blue Jays would be in 11th place, 2.5 games back of a three-way tie for the final wild card spot. But in the American League? 36-38 is good enough for the No. 6 seed at the moment. It's far from what they had in mind when they put together this gargantuan payroll, but all it needs to be is good enough to make it to October. From there, anything can happen.
Washington Nationals
30 of 30
Preseason Over/Under: 65.5 wins
Current Trajectory: 84.2 wins
Recent Returns: 8-4 in last 12 games; 23-16 since May 6
Pleasant Surprise: UTIL Curtis Mead
James Wood and CJ Abrams carrying this offense was to be expected. But Curtis Mead becoming the regular starter at the hot corner and ranking third on the team with 11 home runs and an .818 OPS? Considering he spent spring training with the White Sox before getting traded to Washington in late March after failing to make their Opening Day roster, good luck finding anyone who saw that one coming.
We Were Expecting More: RHP Zack Littell
We certainly weren't expecting greatness from a guy who signed for $7M in mid-March, but Littell had been a respectable No. 3/4 starter over the past three seasons, posting a 3.80 ERA and 4.34 FIP during his time with the Reds, Red Sox and Rays. With the Nationals, however, he has a 5.45 ERA, a 6.66 FIP that ranks dead last among pitchers with at least 50 innings of work and an MLB-worst 20 home runs allowed.
Overall Evaluation: Flourishing Bats; Disastrous Pitching
The Nationals have made colossal strides on offense, on pace to score nearly 200 more runs than last year. But at least as far as FanGraphs is concerned, the pitching staff has been the worst in baseball this season, and it's not all that close. The net result, though, is a team that is surprisingly hovering above .500, winning nine of its last 11 series and maybe even a calculated buyer heading into the trade deadline.
