College Football Predictions and Preview: Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs

For the most part, the upcoming college football Saturday figures to be an uncommonly boring one.

Four of the five teams atop the latest AP poll have the week off, and the lone participant from that group is Clemson, which plays a home game against Wofford. Minnesota (8-0) also has the week off, and both 7-0 Baylor and 7-0 Appalachian State play on Thursday. No. 15 SMU at No. 24 Memphis should be a great one, but it's hard to get casual fans excited about a game between teams from the AAC, a conference that is irrelevant in the eyes of the College Football Playoff selection committee.

The exception to the rule is a gigantic one, though.

No. 6 Florida and No. 8 Georgia will wage war in Jacksonville at 3:30 p.m. ET in a game with big-time SEC and CFP implications.

Just like last year when the Bulldogs were ranked No. 7 and the Gators were No. 9, both rivals enter with national championship aspirations in spite of their one loss each. The victor will become the overwhelming favorite to win the SEC East, which means a shot against either Alabama or LSU to win the conference.

On the flip side of that coin, as far as the playoff is concerned, the loser of this game is effectively finished. Maybe it bounces back, wins out and still sneaks into a New Year's Six bowl, but finishing in the Top Four would be just about inconceivable. Per FiveThirtyEight's projections model, a Florida loss would leave the Gators with a 2 percent chance of making the playoff. Meanwhile, a Georgia loss would put the Bulldogs at less than 1 percent.

(The difference doesn't necessarily imply that Florida is the better team, but rather that there's almost no chance that Florida would lose back-to-back games to Vanderbilt and Missouri, which is what Georgia would need to happen—plus victories of its own over Auburn, Texas A&M and Missouri—to win the SEC East if it loses this game.)

That makes this contest even more important than the big LSU-Alabama Week 11 showdown, since the loser of that game still has at least an 18 percent chance of reaching the playoff.

So who will win this installment of the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party?

The deciding factor should be Florida's ability/inability to get pass-rushers in Jake Fromm's face.

John Raoux/Associated Press/Associated Press

The Gators are leading the SEC with 29 sacks, as well as in yards "gained" on tackles for loss with 250. Granted, about half those numbers were accumulated in the first two weeks against Miami and Tennessee-Martin, but backfield penetration has been paramount to their success.

Or, rather, lack thereof has left them vulnerable.

In the loss to LSU, they got zero sacks and had just one two-yard tackle for loss. In the game against Kentucky in which they needed to erase a 21-10 fourth-quarter deficit, the Gators managed just one sack and a meager three tackles for loss for 11 yards. But in the marquee win over Auburn, Jonathan Greenard crushed Bo Nix on the first play of the game and the freshman quarterback looked rattled for the rest of the afternoon, completing barely 40 percent of his pass attempts and tossing three interceptions.

Greenard has missed all but one series of Florida's past two games, and Jabari Zuniga has barely been able to get on the field since early September. The pair missed the action with ankle sprains, but both defensive linemen are expected to be available against Georgia. Provided both Gators are anywhere close to 100 percent, that means Florida's pass rush should be operating at full capacity for the first time in nearly two months.

Unfortunately, that front seven will try to find holes in the nation's most impenetrable offensive line.

Florida is leading the SEC in sacks, but Georgia is leading the nation with just four sacks allowed. (The Bulldogs are technically tied with Air Force in that category. However, the Falcons have only attempted 78 passes all season, so let's just agree to call Georgia the leader.) Similarly, while Florida's defense is leading the SEC in yards gained on tackles for loss, Georgia is No. 1 in the nation in yards lost on tackles behind the line of scrimmage with 67.

As great as that UGA O-line has been, the loss to South Carolina was a substantial outlier that Florida's defense has undoubtedly been studying throughout this two-week gap between games.

Three of the four sacks Georgia has allowed this season—and all three of the interceptions Fromm has thrown—were courtesy of the Gamecocks. On the pick-six late in the first half, Fromm threw the ball off his back foot while trying to evade the pass rush. The second interception was an errant throw while trying to beat the blitz. Throw in the fact that Georgia had a season-low mark of 4.0 yards per carry and there's no question that South Carolina won the war in the trenches.

In fact, that has been the primary precursor to beating Georgia for a while now.

Since the start of the 2017 season, Georgia is 30-0 when averaging at least 4.1 yards per carry but is 0-6 when held to 4.0 yards or fewer.

For the season, Florida is allowing 3.8 yards per carry.

John Bazemore/Associated Press

That number has been much higher in the past two games (9.1 at LSU; 5.1 at South Carolina), but, again, the Gators did not have their defensive star (Greenard) against the Gamecocks, and he only played in one series against the Tigers. When both he and Zuniga were full participants, though, the Gators had double-digit tackles for loss against both Miami and Tennessee-Martin and held those opponents to a combined average of 2.2 yards per carry.

In addition to aiming for that magical 4.0 YPC mark, Florida must do a better job in the turnover department.

Before D'Andre Swift's 33-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter of the 2018 edition of the WLOCP, Florida's defense had limited Georgia to 3.8 yards per carry. (The Bulldogs finished at 4.6.) But Florida was still nowhere close to winning the game at that point because it committed three turnovers while forcing zero. Moreover, two of those turnovers were fumbles that set up Georgia in the red zone, directly leading to 10 points.

It was a similar but opposite situation the previous time these teams squared off while both ranked in the AP Top 10. In November 2008, No. 5 Florida cruised to a 49-10 victory over No. 8 Georgia, even though the Bulldogs outgained the Gators 398-373. The difference in what was a close game at halftime were Georgia's four second-half turnovers, three of which set up Tim Tebow and Co. inside the UGA 25 for a touchdown either one or two plays later.

There was also that 2012 BCS Top 10 showdown between No. 2 Florida and No. 10 Georgia—they were No. 3 and No. 12, respectively, in the AP poll—in which the Bulldogs committed three turnovers yet managed to win 17-9 by forcing six Florida turnovers.

But if turnover margin is once again destined to be the story of this year's battle, best of luck projecting who stands to benefit from it.

Georgia is merely plus-one in turnover margin on the season while Florida is plus-three, and each defense has forced just one turnover in its last two games combined. It doesn't seem like it should be a factor, but when both teams are in the mix for a national championship, this series sure has had a knack for infecting one of the sides with butter fingers.

Forced to make a pick, my gut says Georgia finds a way to win.

Fromm has one colossal dud/multiple-interception game per season, and he already got that out of the way against South Carolina. Kyle Trask has been incredible since he replaced Feleipe Franks on Sept. 14, but Georgia's defense has only allowed six touchdowns all season, none of which were of the rushing variety.

Translation: Trask needs to have the game of his life, while Fromm probably just needs to be a mistake-free game manager. Either could happen, but the latter is more likely.

The Pick: Georgia 27, Florida 17.

Kerry Miller covers college football and men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.