Predicting the Top Candidates for NBA's Most Improved Award
Who's next?
The NBA's Most Improved Player Award is the most exciting (and mysterious) regular-season accolade because it promises a leap in production for both the player who earns the honor and his respective franchise.
Based on history, we already have a few guidelines on who this player will be in 2019-20.
We know he will be relatively young, likely in his third or fourth season. Over the past nine years, the recipient's average age has been 23.8, and he's had 3.9 years of NBA service. Goran Dragic was the only such player older than 25.
He will also see a dramatic spike in scoring. In 2012-13, Paul George's scoring average increased the least at 5.3 points per game, but every winner's mark rose to at least 16.1 points per game (Ryan Anderson).
A trip to the playoffs is also likely. Seven of the nine winners have advanced beyond the regular season, and Dragic (48-34 with the 2013-14 Phoenix Suns) and Kevin Love (17-65 with the 2010-11 Minnesota Timberwolves) are the only exceptions.
This award likely won't go to an established star player or one who has already averaged more than 19 points per game. History speaks for itself. We also know it probably won't go to a center (sorry, Bam Adebayo). No center has taken the award in the past 14 seasons (Boris Diaw).
Finally, we can assume it will go to a small-market player. Dating back to its inception in 1985-86, the cities of Los Angeles and New York have brought home just one honor (Bobby Simmons in 2004-05). The Orlando Magic and Indiana Pacers have each taken home the award five times.
With those stipulations set, it's time to see our candidates.
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Brandon Ingram, New Orleans Pelicans
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After scoring 18.3 points per game in 2018-19, Brandon Ingram would be an outlier in this category. Over the last nine years, Giannis Antetokounmpo was the only player to score at least 16.9 points per game prior to winning the award.
But the potential for him to experience a scoring surge of at least 5.3 points per contest is beyond plausible.
Ingram is jumping to a much more efficient team in New Orleans. While the Los Angeles Lakers and New Orleans Pelicans were close in pace (fourth and third, respectively) the Pelicans were significantly better in offensive rating (13th to 24th) and per-game scoring (third to 16th).
Add that to Ingram's strong second half in 2018-19 prior to the discovery of deep venous thrombosis in his right arm. After averaging 16 points through his first 26 contests, he shot up to 20.5 points per game in his final 26 and increased his efficiency with the larger allotment of minutes.
In his final eight games, Ingram caught fire by averaging 25.6 points on 56.1 percent shooting and scoring 19 or more in every contest.
The Pelicans should finish third in scoring average for the third consecutive season. Head coach Alvin Gentry's teams always sprint, and if the preseason serves any indication, they should be even faster in 2019-20. After finishing with a pace of 103.3 in 2018-19, the Pelicans blazed their way to a pace of 110.4 through five games this preseason.
Reloaded with talent and pace-pushers, the team should put up plenty of points, and Ingram has a good chance to lead the team in that category. Through those five preseason games, he has averaged 23.3 points on 17.4 shots per 36 minutes, making him a bona fide candidate for this award.
Jonathan Isaac, Orlando Magic
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Defensively, Jonathan Isaac already fits the mold of a breakout player in 2019-20.
After they made the Orlando Magic the league's fifth-best defense after the All-Star break, he and Aaron Gordon form what may become the best defensive frontcourt in the NBA. Through five preseason games, he has a jaw-dropping 94.0 defensive rating. For context, last year's leader (minimum 50 games played) was Sindarius Thornwell of the Los Angeles Clippers at 97.7.
Offensively, Isaac has continued to expand his game past the three-point line.
After taking just 1.7 three-point attempts per game in 27 appearances as a rookie, he upped the volume to 3.5 attempts per game as a sophomore. As his volume grew, so did his confidence. Through 53 outings before the All-Star break, Isaac converted just 28.7 percent of his attempts. In the final 27, that number rose to 38.2 percent, well above the league average.
The Orlando Magic enter 2019-20 with renewed confidence after they reached the playoffs for the first time in seven seasons. Isaac will be a big part of that, and his role should expand in his junior season after he averaged 26.6 minutes last year.
The Magic have the talent and continuity to challenge for home-court advantage in the first round. Doing so would certainly create buzz throughout the league and earn players like Gordon and Isaac the recognition they deserve.
Carving out a larger role would allow Isaac to immediately improve his numbers on the stat sheet, which would enter him into the award conversation. He already averaged 13.9 points and 7.5 rebounds per 36 minutes after the break. And while the Magic as a whole have shot dreadfully in their exhibitions, Isaac's per-36-minute numbers have climbed to 14.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 3.0 steals and 2.2 blocks.
Isaac is already on the right path, though the Magic's frontcourt remains crowded with Nikola Vucevic, Mo Bamba, Al-Farouq Aminu, Khem Birch and Gordon. If he can increase his workload to at least 30 minutes per game, he will emerge as one of the game's breakout players.
Dejounte Murray, San Antonio Spurs
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Perhaps no player fits this billing better than Dejounte Murray.
At 23 years old and approaching his delayed third NBA season, Murray has recovered nicely from a torn ACL that halted what could have been a Most Improved season in 2018-19.
"He feels confident, and he looks confident," head coach Gregg Popovich told reporters. "He's not holding back or anything like that, so it's good he's being aggressive."
Murray averaged just 8.1 points in 21.5 minutes per game during the 2017-18 season while finishing on the All-Defensive second team. At the time, the San Antonio Spurs were the NBA's third-slowest team and the fourth-lowest-scoring squad at just 102.7 points per game.
Now, the Spurs have a different kind of approach thanks to DeMar DeRozan. They took a measured jump to 22nd in pace and 18th in scoring while plummeting defensively (third to 19th).
If they're to challenge for their 23rd straight playoff appearance, it'll be partially up to Murray, who will form a devastating defensive backcourt pairing with Derrick White.
"I'm watching Dejounte and, my gosh, I haven't seen a guy that fast in five, six or seven years," Popovich said.
"I just know Dejounte is fast as hell, so we're not going to have a choice as soon as he has the ball," DeMar DeRozan added.
Murray is averaging 17.9 points, 7.4 rebounds and 7.0 assists per 36 minutes in the preseason while slashing 44.4/60.0/78.6. It may take time for him to find his regular-season footing, but once he does, he will find himself in the mix for this award.
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
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Just two years removed from one of the more impressive rookie performances, the Boston Celtics' third overall pick in 2017 should be considered a favorite for the award. According to FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR projections, Tatum's value should skyrocket as he becomes an All-Star-caliber player in the next few seasons.
Tatum already took a step forward in scoring volume during the 2018-19 campaign, but it came at the cost of his efficiency. His 15.7 points per game were tempered by his 50.6 effective field-goal percentage, which was down from 53.8 percent in his freshmen year.
This season, Tatum's workload is bound to increase due to the departures of Kyrie Irving and Al Horford. More ownership of the Celtics' success will be thrust upon him. But can he eclipse our mark of 5.3 additional points per game, which would push him up to 21.0?
Converting his triples could help. He's launching three-point attempts at an alarming rate in the preseason. After taking just 4.6 per 36 minutes in 2018-19, he scored 22.1 points on 9.1 three-point attempts per 36 minutes during preseason action.
But after making 43.4 percent of his threes as a rookie, Tatum continues to struggle with his efficiency. He's made only 31.3 percent of his long-range attempts in the preseason. He'll also need to shake his mid-range game or improve it. In 2018-19, Tatum took 26.6 percent of his shots from mid-range while drilling just 36.6 percent of them.
Coupled with leading the Celtics to a top-four finish in the Eastern Conference, playing a few more minutes and returning to the efficiency of his first year would earn Tatum recognition and a place in this debate.
Terry Rozier, Charlotte Hornets
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A variety of qualifications almost eliminate Terry Rozier from this discussion.
One is winning. The Charlotte Hornets should drop precipitously in the win column after losing All-NBA point guard Kemba Walker. Another is age. At 25 years old and entering his fifth season, Rozier falls just outside the typical range for recent winners.
But if we're talking about surges in scoring, no player fits this category better than Rozier.
The point guard scored just 9.0 points per game in 2018-19 after finishing with 11.3 in the season prior. With Kyrie Irving healthy and working alongside primary playmakers such as Jayson Tatum, Al Horford and Gordon Hayward, Rozier fell off the list of priorities.
But after joining Charlotte this offseason, he'll have the green light to shoot as much as he pleases, and the Hornets will be desperate for any shot creation he can muster. His per-36-minute preseason numbers fit nicely into the mold of a Most Improved Player at 22.4 points, 7.3 assists and 5.9 rebounds.
Rozier seems like a lock to eclipse our 5.3-points-per-game improvement benchmark (and then some), which would cement his name in this discussion.
We've already seen what he may be capable of when he averaged 16.5 points, 5.7 assists and 5.3 rebounds in 19 games during the 2017-18 postseason. Replicating those numbers may give him the nod in 2020.
All stats, unless otherwise indicated, courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.
