Remaining Games That Will Have Biggest Impact on the College Football Playoff
It's still too early to start seriously thinking about the College Football Playoff, but then again, it's never too early for that.
The playoff chase has a fingerprint—if not a strong foothold—in every national narrative formed throughout the season, particularly any time Associated Press Top 10 teams square off. For proof of that, just look back at the conversations before, during and after the big Notre Dame-Georgia game last weekend.
When you're done looking back, we'd like to do some looking ahead to the rest of the season in hopes of pinpointing the one game each week that is going to have the biggest impact on the playoff picture. And just in case we don't quite hit the mark with those predictions, there's at least one honorable mention for each week, too.
This weekend (Week 5) is...meh. But Week 7 could be historically great, Week 12 might offer complete and utter chaos, and the SEC has at least one gigantic showdown far more often than not the rest of the way.
Things have been relatively calm thus far, but that's going to change soon.
Note: Conference championship weekend is not included. You don't need our confirmation that those will be critical games in the construction of the playoff.
Week 5: Virginia at Notre Dame
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Game of the Week: Virginia at Notre Dame
The upcoming weekend doesn't exactly scream "Playoff implications!" Five of the top 16 teams are idle, and only one of the active 11 is facing a ranked opponent. Thus, No. 10 Notre Dame hosting No. 18 Virginia is the obvious top choice, even though it is undeniably the least appetizing of these 10 "Game of the Week" offerings.
Virginia is undefeated, but it isn't surging into this battle. The Cavaliers came from behind and held on for dear life in the closing seconds of a home win over Florida State, and then they had to rally from a 17-0 deficit to avoid a crushing loss to Old Dominion.
But despite its unimpressive play on offense thus far, there's no question Virginia is the ACC's second-best hope for a playoff team (after Clemson, of course). If the Cavaliers win this road game, they could enter the ACC Championship Game with a 12-0 record. Their toughest game after this one is at Miami on Oct. 11, and the Hurricanes are 2-2 with a loss to North Carolina and a five-point win over Central Michigan.
Based on how both teams looked Saturday, though, the more likely outcome is a relatively convincing Notre Dame victory, ensuring the Fighting Irish remain at or near the top of the list of one-loss CFP candidates.
Honorable Mention: USC at Washington
Even if Washington wins out, it's probably not going to finish in the Top Four, given its pithy nonconference slate and the fact that all of its toughest Pac-12 opponents have to come to Seattle. The Huskies would need to dominate the likes of USC, Oregon and Utah for anyone to even consider them more deserving of a playoff spot than a team such as Ohio State or Oklahoma.
USC would be a different story if it wins out. No one is expecting that to happen, but that would mean road wins over Washington, Notre Dame and Cal, a home win over Oregon and probably a second win over Oregon in the conference title game. That would be a one-loss resume worth looking at.
Week 6: Auburn at Florida
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Game of the Week: Auburn at Florida
If you're a fan of high-scoring affairs with lots of offensive rhythm and chunk gains on passing plays, well, this won't be a fun game for you.
Auburn true freshman quarterback Bo Nix has a 118.0 passer efficiency rating, which ranks 62nd among the 69 players who have attempted at least 100 passes. Meanwhile, Florida is piecing things together with backup quarterback Kyle Trask following Feleipe Franks' season-ending injury. And these are two of the stingiest rushing defenses in the nation, each allowing just two rushing touchdowns through four games while holding opponents to roughly 3.0 yards per carry.
Translation: Points will be hard to come by.
That doesn't make this game any less critical in the playoff hunt, though. Both No. 7 Auburn and No. 9 Florida are in a weird spot in which they are ranked in the Top 10 nationally but are afterthoughts in their own conference. Florida still has to play at No. 4 LSU and on a neutral field against No. 3 Georgia. Auburn has to deal with both those teams plus the Iron Bowl against No. 2 Alabama. Factor in this head-to-head game, and it feels almost impossible for either team to run the table.
But the winner is going to take a huge step forward into the national spotlight, particularly if it's the Gators, since it would drastically improve their odds of winning the SEC East. The loser won't necessarily be eliminated from playoff contention, but it would turn their uphill climb into a steep mountain face.
Honorable Mention: Iowa at Michigan
Iowa has won five of the last six games in this series and has a chance to bury Michigan past the point of no return. The Hawkeyes have a home game against Penn State the following week as well as a road tilt against Wisconsin in early November, but every other contest on the docket should be a win. If they can knock off the Wolverines in the Big House, they would start getting way more attention than they have thus far.
Alternatively, a Michigan win will keep the door open for the Wolverines to shake off a rough start and sneak into the playoff.
Week 7: Oklahoma vs. Texas
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Game of the Week: Oklahoma vs. Texas (in Dallas)
Now this will be a more enjoyable game for the fans of barn burners.
Last year's Red River Rivalry was a 48-45 shootout in which each team eclipsed 500 yards. And early returns this season state both teams are even better on offense and still mediocre at best on defense. Texas is averaging 41.8 points per game. Oklahoma has scored at least 48 in each game. Buckle up for an entertaining four-hour contest.
As far as playoff implications are concerned, the Longhorns absolutely must win this game, given their Week 2 loss to LSU. No two-loss team has made the College Football Playoff in the tournament's first five years of existence, and this is not going to be the team to change that. Even if Texas bounces back with six straight regular-season victories and a revenge win over the Sooners in the Big 12 Championship Game, it won't have enough quality wins.
As was the case last year, Oklahoma could lose this game and still get in, though we certainly wouldn't advise testing that. There are five undefeated teams in both the Big Ten and SEC, Clemson's spot seems all but assured, and a one-loss Notre Dame or Oregon would probably have a better case than the Sooners. Much can and will change as the season progresses, but it's clear Oklahoma would need help with a loss.
Given what we've seen thus far, though, the Sooners should win. Jalen Hurts has been incredible. The Oklahoma rushing attack is exponentially better than Texas'. And if you had to count on one of these defenses to get a stop, the Sooners' seems like the marginally safer bet. Anything can happen in this rivalry, though. Each of the last five regular-season matchups was decided by seven points or fewer.
Honorable Mention: Holy cow
Whatever you do, don't make plans that keep you from watching football the Saturday of Columbus Day weekend. In addition to that Big 12 gem, there are two huge clashes in the SEC (No. 9 Florida at No. 4 LSU, No. 2 Alabama at No. 23 Texas A&M), two big games in the Big Ten (No. 12 Penn State at No. 14 Iowa, No. 25 Michigan State at No. 8 Wisconsin) and a key nonconference battle between No. 21 USC and No. 10 Notre Dame.
Maybe one or two of those teams drops out of the AP Top 25 in the next two weeks, but it's possible we get six ranked-against-ranked showdowns. When does that ever happen outside of maybe conference championship weekend? Things are going to get wild. Be kind to your local AP voters that Sunday, because that's going to be a tough ballot to fill out.
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Week 8: Michigan at Penn State
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Game of the Week: Michigan at Penn State
We're not even looking a full month into the future at this point, but it's conceivable that this fantastic-looking game could be a dud when it arrives. Both teams have to deal with Iowa before Week 8, and Penn State also has a tricky road game against Maryland on Friday. This could be a 6-0 team hosting a 5-1 team for the right to stay in or climb into the Top 10, or it could be a barely marketable tilt between unranked 4-2 disappointments.
With all due respect to the Hawkeyes, let's assume the former, since that would keep more teams in the playoff hunt and make the Big Ten East exponentially more exciting. Neither of these teams faces Ohio State until late November, but the winner would become the Buckeyes' clear top challenger.
Does anyone know what to make of Penn State, though?
As was expected long before the season, the defense has been great, especially against the run. Opponents are averaging fewer than two yards per carry. Both Idaho and Pittsburgh managed just one rushing first down against the Nittany Lions. And their biggest preseason question mark (redshirt sophomore quarterback Sean Clifford) has yet to throw an interception.
However, we're talking about three home wins against teams going nowhere fast, and Penn State barely won that Week 3 game against Pitt. But the combination of the PSU defense and Michigan's poor excuse for offense should equate to a Nittany Lions victory.
Honorable Mention: Oregon at Washington
As previously noted, Washington doesn't have much of a path to the playoff, but Oregon does. If the Ducks win their Week 6 home game against Cal, this game and their Week 10 road game against USC, they could enter their home stretch (Arizona, at Arizona State, Oregon State) ranked somewhere in the No. 6 range of the CFP Top 25.
One big key for Oregon is the play of Auburn. If the Tigers lose to Florida, LSU, Georgia and Alabama, the Ducks' season-opening loss won't look quite so forgivable. But if Auburn wins at least two of those games while Oregon takes care of business in the Pac-12, Justin Herbert and Co. would gain national respect at the rate of a snowball rolling down a hill.
Week 9: Wisconsin at Ohio State
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Game of the Week: Wisconsin at Ohio State
While most remain convinced that an Alabama-Clemson national championship game is bound to happen, could it be that these Big Ten brutes are the two most complete teams in the country?
Wisconsin is No. 1 in total defense, allowing 171.3 yards per game. Ohio State is No. 2 at 222.0 yards per game. In terms of points allowed, the Badgers lead the way at 4.7, while the Buckeyes check in at No. 3 with 9.0.
And that's just the defenses.
Thanks to the most dominant running back in the nation (Jonathan Taylor), Wisconsin is averaging 264.0 rushing yards and almost five rushing touchdowns per game. Ohio State's Justin Fields-led dual-threat offense is putting up 264.5 passing yards, 260.0 rushing yards and 7.3 touchdowns per game.
The Badgers lead the nation with 335.7 net yards per game. The Buckeyes are third (302.5). This game should be incredible, and the likely repeat in the Big Ten championship might be even better. Ohio State will take this one at home, but the neutral-site rematch with a spot in the playoff on the line is anyone's guess.
Honorable Mention: Auburn at LSU
It probably seems silly to have No. 7 at No. 4 as the honorable mention to No. 8 at No. 5, but this is just one of the seven (I repeat, with emphasis: seven!) upcoming showdowns between SEC teams ranked in the AP Top Nine, whereas Wisconsin at Ohio State is the only such game in the Big Ten. If Alabama wins the games it should, Auburn-LSU will merely determine which team finishes second in the SEC East.
That said, it's feasible two teams from this division will go to the playoff. If LSU finishes 11-1 with a road loss to Alabama and wins over Texas, Florida, Auburn and Texas A&M, it's going to be tough to relegate it to the Sugar Bowl. Or, goodness, how could Auburn get left out if it enters the Iron Bowl with an 11-0 record that features road wins over Texas A&M, Florida and LSU; a home win over Georgia; and a neutral-site victory over Oregon?
Even if you believe Alabama is unbeatable, this would still be a colossal contest if both squads are 7-0.
Week 10: Georgia vs. Florida
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Game of the Week: Georgia vs. Florida (in Jacksonville)
Will Florida still be in the playoff hunt? Back-to-back games against Auburn and LSU could kick the Gators to the curb in a hurry. But if they beat either of those Tigers (or both), they could enter the driver's seat for the SEC East title by upsetting their rival.
While Florida might have multiple losses before this game, Georgia won't. In the five weeks leading up to this contest, the Bulldogs have two bye weeks and games against Tennessee, South Carolina and Kentucky in which they will be heavily favored. Last week's close call against Notre Dame showed Georgia is beatable, but it would be downright stunning if the Dawgs lost before this Nov. 2 game.
Frankly, it would be a little shocking if they were to lose to Florida, too. Excluding their game against Tennessee-Martin, the Gators are averaging just 29 points and 105.3 rushing yards per game while committing three turnovers per contest. They are solid on defense and could fluster Jake Fromm with a healthy dose of backfield penetration, but they have a lot of maturing to do on offense if they expect to put up a decent amount of points against the UGA D.
It won't be a repeat of the 42-7 desolation from two years ago, but something close to last year's 36-17 Georgia victory seems plausible.
Honorable Mention: SMU at Memphis?
Aside from the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, Week 10 looks like a great big bust—a casualty of the new double-bye scheduling. Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Wisconsin all have the week off, and Clemson might as well be idle, playing a home game against Wofford. There are a pair of noteworthy Pac-12 games (Oregon at USC and Utah at Washington), but let's use the weak slate to give a shout-out to a couple of deep CFP sleepers.
Both SMU and Memphis are undefeated, and neither one faces UCF during the regular season. According to ESPN's football power index, neither the Mustangs nor the Tigers have a game left on their schedule in which they have a less than 58.7 percent chance of victory, save for this one. While it's not probable the winner of this game will go 12-0, it's at least possible. And given SMU's road win over TCU, the Mustangs might have a decent argument if only one or two Power Five teams get to 13-0.
Week 11: LSU at Alabama
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Game of the Week: LSU at Alabama
There are a bunch of games pitting AP Top 10 teams against each other, but this is the only one featuring two teams ranked in the Top Six.
In other words, this is the only one guaranteed to have a negative impact on one of the teams that ESPN's Playoff Predictor gives at least a six percent chance of winning the national championship.
A projected loss to Alabama is undoubtedly the biggest reason why No. 4 LSU has only the sixth-best chance of reaching the playoff at 33 percent. As previously mentioned, though, this might not be a "Win or Enjoy Your Non-CFP Bowl" situation for LSU. The eye test will be a big factor, but if the Tigers show up for this game and win their other 11, they should still get in even without winning their division.
The Crimson Tide probably cannot afford to lose, though. Their nonconference strength of schedule is a travesty, and they do not play Georgia or Florida. It can be nice to play in a conference with four other title contenders, but if you don't play two of them and lose at home to one of the other two, the strength of your conference is irrelevant.
But before we get too deep into the weeds about what this six-weeks-in-the-future result would mean for the losing team, let's collectively hope both Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Burrow make it to the game without suffering any injuries. Along with Jalen Hurts, they are two of the top three candidates for the Heisman Trophy, and one of the best possible things about this regular season would be watching them trade haymakers against mutually stellar secondaries.
Honorable Mention: Iowa at Wisconsin
Not much can hold a candle to No. 4 at No. 2, but this Big Ten West matchup could be huge.
Iowa has to contend with Michigan and Penn State long before this game, and Wisconsin has both Michigan State and Ohio State as potential stumbling blocks. But there's a much better than zero percent chance that this game decides who represents the West in the Big Ten Championship Game. So, even if neither of these teams is a serious CFP candidate Nov. 9, it could still be a critical game in the eyes of Ohio State or Penn State.
Week 12: Georgia at Auburn
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Game of the Week: Georgia at Auburn
Cue the "OMG enough of the SEC bias!" complaints, but please redirect that anger at the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 for having a combined total of one can't-miss game over the rest of the season. We have to get top-tier games from somewhere, and the SEC just happens to have a ton of them spread out nicely over the course of the next two months.
We've already said plenty about both Georgia and Auburn. So, here's a fun note for the folks who have already penciled the Bulldogs into the SEC Championship Game with a 12-0 record: The Tigers have won three of their last five home games in this series, and one of the exceptions was a seven-point affair in which a punt-return touchdown made the difference.
Winning at home against Georgia has been a rite of passage for Auburn's best teams. The Tigers did it in 2010, 2013 and 2017, which were also the only three seasons of the past 12 that ended with Auburn ranked in the Top 20. It might not mean a darn thing for this matchup, but it's interesting.
Honorable Mention: Potential chaos
Much like Week 10, Week 12 features a marquee Georgia game and not a whole lot else. But unlike Week 10, not only are most of the viable CFP contenders in action, but most of them are also playing on the road.
Ohio State at Rutgers isn't much to worry about, but among Alabama at Mississippi State, LSU at Ole Miss, Oklahoma at Baylor, Wisconsin at Nebraska, Florida at Missouri and Texas at Iowa State, something unexpected is bound to happen, right?
It's also worth noting Wake Forest (4-0) is playing at Clemson. It's unclear just how good the Demon Deacons are, but they could definitely get to 9-0 if they're a Top 40-caliber team. Their next five games—at Boston College, Louisville, Florida State, NC State, at Virginia Tech—are all winnable for an above-average team. And if that happens, Wake Forest would basically be playing Clemson for the ACC Atlantic crown.
Week 13: Penn State at Ohio State
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Game of the Week: Penn State at Ohio State
This has been one of the best games of the season in each of the past three years. It started with Penn State returning that blocked field goal for a touchdown in 2016 and then continued with back-to-back one-point Ohio State victories—in dramatic comeback fashion, no less—in games in which both teams were ranked in the Top 10.
Will we be treated to a fourth consecutive gem?
As previously mentioned, it's hard to know what to make of the Nittany Lions just yet. The defense looks great, but there's still a lot of work to do with that offense. And the last time we were banking on a great defense and OK offense to take care of the Buckeyes in the Horseshoe, Ohio State exploded for 62 points in a statement win over Michigan. Justin Fields and Co. seem capable of doing something similar against any defense.
The Buckeyes get the win, clinch the Big Ten East and carry an undefeated record into The Game.
Honorable Mention: Boise State at Utah State
As with the SMU-Memphis game in Week 10, it probably won't matter in the grand scheme of the CFP whether Boise State goes undefeated. But just in case there is an opening for a 13-0 Group of Five team, this figures to be the stiffest test left on the Broncos' schedule.
The Utah State defense isn't anything special, but the Aggies offense can put up points in a hurry, especially at home. They averaged 59.5 points per game in Logan last season and put 62 on the board in their lone home game this year. That might just be a product of facing their weakest opponents at home, or it might be that Jordan Love finds a way to kick it into another gear there.
Week 14: Alabama at Auburn
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Games of the Week: Alabama at Auburn, Ohio State at Michigan
There's no way to know which of these two annual classics will be the most important. Michigan's loss to Wisconsin wasn't a promising start for the Big Ten affair, but either home team could easily have three losses prior to these final regular-season contests.
What does feel likely is that both road teams will be trying to lock up a spot in their respective conference championship games, putting them just one more win from the playoff.
ESPN's FPI gives Alabama and Ohio State at least a 75.2 percent chance of winning each game prior to the showdown with its biggest rival. By multiplying the percentages for their next seven games, we find Ohio State has a 40.6 percent chance of getting to 11-0, while Alabama is a bit higher at 49.2 percent. So, it's far from guaranteed, but it's also considerably more likely than any other team not named Clemson doing so.
Even if the Crimson Tide or Buckeyes drop one game before Week 14, they could still be vying for a division title and the right to at least remain in the playoff conversation. There will be drama. There always is.
Honorable Mention: Texas A&M at LSU
If neither team is still in the mix, can we at least get another seven-overtime game?
Kerry Miller covers college football and men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.
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