Northwestern-Iowa: Will the Wildcats Upset the Hawkeyes?

This week’s game against the Northwestern Wildcats is the classic trap game for the Iowa Hawkeyes. Is this the week that the magical championship run ends for the Hawkeyes?

There are several reasons for the Hawkeye faithful to be worried.

First, some of Iowa’s players will likely struggle keeping their focus on the task at the end given next week’s showdown against the Ohio State Buckeyes.

All week long, adoring fans, friends, and family have been talking to them about how close the team is to playing for a national championship. Some players will likely succumb to the temptation to take their eyes off Northwestern as they gaze ahead to Ohio State.

Second, Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald has had success against Iowa, going 2-1, and his success is likely due to his deep understanding of Iowa’s approach.

When Fitzgerald was a player at Northwestern, his coach, Gary Barnett, used Iowa’s approach to the game to turn around the Wildcat program. In Barnett’s 1996 book High Hopes: Taking the Purple to Pasadena, he wrote, “For years, I really, really envied what they had done. So as I looked for a program to emulate, I decided it would be Iowa.”

Third, Northwestern has a veteran senior quarterback in Mike Kafka, who is an accomplished passer and runner. Kafka is a very dangerous player and is the focal point of the Wildcat offense, as he is responsible for 69.6 percent of the team’s yardage, accounting for 2,443 of 3,415 yards.

Kafka also has a dependable receiver in Zeke Markshausen, who leads the Big Ten in receptions. Zeke is averaging nearly 7.5 catches a game. 

Iowa, however, will beat the Northwestern Wildcats, setting up the much-anticipated showdown with the Ohio State Buckeyes. How will Iowa do it?

Ricky Stanzi will have a solid day given the depleted secondary of Northwestern. The Indiana game should be dismissed as an anomaly for Stanzi, as he had 87 attempts without throwing an interception prior to the game.

Nine different players have started in the secondary for Northwestern this year. Further, Wildcat safety Brendan Smith and linebacker Ben Johnson have been listed as being unavailable for the game due to injury. Stanzi will bounce back with a solid game against Northwestern using play action and short passes, especially now that he knows he can’t throw into a 20 mph wind.

Don’t be surprised if Stanzi has his second 300-yard passing game of the season. The more difficult question is whether he will improve upon his already strong quarterback rating of 128.78.

Iowa will make the Wildcats one-dimensional, holding them to fewer than 100 rushing yards. Northwestern has not been able to run the ball all year, and the game against Iowa will not be any different.

Kafka is the leading rusher on Northwestern. However, he is not healthy, having tweaked his hamstring last week at Penn State. While Kafka has been cleared to play, hamstring injuries do not completely heal in one week, and his ability to run will be affected.

If Kafka is sacked early and is forced to scramble early, his effectiveness running the ball will be limited. With a healthy Kafka, the Wildcats are only averaging 121.9 yards per game.  

Iowa will wear down Northwestern in the fourth quarter. Iowa has been especially strong in the fourth quarter, outscoring its five Big Ten opponents by 73-14 in the final quarter.  Northwestern, in contrast, has been outscored 42-25 by its five Big Ten opponents in the last quarter of the game.

Northwestern’s defense wore down against Penn State last week, giving up three touchdowns in the fourth quarter as a result of a long drive and two big plays—a 53-yard touchdown pass and 69-yard touchdown run.

Iowa will win the turnover game. Iowa is currently standing at plus-18 for turnovers, while Northwestern is at minus-one. Northwestern will take solace in the fact that they have won the turnover battle against Iowa in their last two trips to Iowa City with an 8-3 advantage. Coach Kirk Ferentz, given his penchant to avoid turnovers, likely put this fact on the blackboard a couple of times this week.

The defensive front of the Hawkeyes should pressure the Wildcats into a couple of interceptions this weekend, as several players on the offensive line are struggling with injuries.

Prediction

Iowa currently leads the series against the Wildcats 46-21-3. Iowa gets win No. 47 of the series by a score of 34-17.