Oregon-Stanford: Don't Count Your Roses Until They've Bloomed

The catchy old poem commemorating Guy Fawkes' attempt to blow up Parliament begins, “Remember, remember the fifth of November.”

It is a pity for Ducks fans that “31st of October” and “remember” do not rhyme. “Eugene” does rhyme with “Halloween,” though, so maybe somebody can come up with something.

Unless you have been living under a rock, you know by now that Oregon inflicted the worst loss of the Pete Carroll era on USC last week to the tune of 47-20.

Throughout the first half both teams traded scores, but at halftime USC’s offense seemed to take an early flight back to Los Angeles, as the Ducks pulled away to give the Trojans their fourth consecutive loss in the state of Oregon.

There are many who believe this win signals the Ducks' usurpation of the Pac-10 throne that USC has occupied for seven consecutive seasons. Then again, pundits were saying the same thing in 2007, and Ducks fans still painfully remember how that worked out.

Having overcome the adversity of being embarrassed in their opener by Boise State, losing a marquee player to suspension, and dealing with season-ending injuries to two top corners, Oregon now has to deal with high expectations. The “O” logo on the Ducks' uniforms has now become a great yellow bull’s-eye to their remaining opponents, and Stanford gets the first shot.

The Cardinal looked like they might be making a conference title run themselves until setbacks against Oregon State and Arizona. Still, Stanford is undefeated at home this season and hungry for the wins that will get them back to a bowl game for the first time since 2001.

2001 was also the year an upset loss to the Cardinal cost Oregon a shot at the national title game. I didn’t attend that game in order to take the PSAT that Saturday. To this day I rue the decision to place academics over athletics that cost my team a shot at the crystal ball by not bringing my good luck to Autzen Stadium.

Superstitions aside, though, Stanford actually has the tools necessary to pull off the upset this weekend. It all starts up front with a beefy, skilled offensive line and bruising tailback Toby Gerhart.

The Cardinal run a good old-fashioned offense that pounds the ball with the run to set up the play action pass. It may be old-fashioned, but Jim Harbaugh has found a way to make it work on the Farm, with his team averaging 31.9 points per game.

The Ducks' defense has been outstanding all season, especially against the run, but against USC they did prove vulnerable to the power running game. Oregon has tremendous speed on defense but has an undersized defensive line. The Trojans were not consistent enough to exploit this potential weakness, but if Gerhart and company can stay on track throughout the game, things will get dicey for the Ducks.

It is vital for Stanford to gain most of their yards on the ground to keep Oregon’s offense on the sideline, because ever since conference play started that has been the only thing that has worked against Jeremiah Masoli and the Ducks. The “quack attack” took it to new levels on Halloween, driving into the red zone nine times on 11 possessions and scoring every time they got inside the 20.

The one thing Oregon’s offense can’t do this week is beat themselves. Turnovers, penalties, and failing to convert on third downs will give a Cardinal offense that is already likely to lead the Ducks in time of possession a chance to bleed even more clock and wear down Oregon’s defense.

For the Ducks to assure themselves of a win in Palo Alto, their best bet is to take the lead early and hold on to it. The Cardinal do not run an offense with great comeback potential. The bigger a lead Oregon can get, the more Stanford will have to move away from their bread and butter, the power run.

The Ducks have all they need to get this done, assuming they don’t start drinking their own Kool-Aid now that they are being proclaimed the lords of the West. As long as Oregon’s offense avoids miscues and injuries to key personnel, they are all but unstoppable. The quicker the pace of this game, the more likely it is to turn into the kind of shootout that the Cardinal simply don’t have the firepower to win.

The Ducks' defense needs to be opportunistic. Turnovers and third down stops will get them off the field in order to stay fresh in the late game, when Gerhart’s power running would otherwise take over.

Upsets don’t happen without big plays by the underdogs that steal momentum away from the favorites. The good news for the Ducks is that Stanford’s defense doesn’t get many takeaways, and their offense won’t take yardage in chunks.

Special teams are a different matter entirely. It is rare a team can be said to be more dangerous in this phase than Oregon, but with Chris Owusu returning kicks, the argument can be made for the Cardinal.

The Ducks cannot afford to let special teams play become an advantage for Stanford—not only will it cause momentum swings that will let the Cardinal feed off the home crowd’s energy, but also because good field position (be it from special teams plays or miscues by Oregon’s offense) could do a lot to mitigate Stanford’s inability to score quickly.

Last year these two teams' running games battered one another back and forth before the Ducks scored in the final seconds to seal the victory. Two years ago the Cardinal led by 10 at halftime before Oregon regrouped to win going away.

It doesn’t matter how many accolades the Ducks have received since beating USC. With Harbaugh coaching them, the Cardinal are not going to roll over and give Oregon this game. The Ducks will have to take it from them.

MY CALL: Oregon Ducks 40, Stanford Cardinal 20