Ohio State-Penn State Prediction: The Nittany Lions Will Stuff the Bucks

Without intending to be obnoxious, I want to know why the Ohio State Buckeyes think they can win this weekend in Happy Valley.

How will they score points? With the 10th-ranked passing offense in the Big Ten? With a banged-up Boom Herron? With Terrelle Pryor?

Penn State is first in the conference in rushing defense, allowing 84 yards per game. They had no trouble defending the zone read last year (and God knows Jim Tressel doesn't run it nearly enough, given Pryor's skill set). Will the Nittany Lions suddenly forget how to tackle?

How else can Ohio State expect to score? On fumbles? Interceptions? Penn State is plus-eight in turnover margin, tied for 21st in the country (granted, the Buckeyes are tied for fifth) and hasn't turned the ball over in three straight games. They take calculated risks on offense, but they rarely throw the kitchen sink.

On field goals? The Buckeyes' starting kicker, Aaron Pettrey, is out, and the backup, a walk-on, was one-for-three in garbage time against New Mexico State.

What's the toughest game Terrelle Pryor has ever played on the road? It's probably a tie between the Fiesta Bowl against Texas (not a true road game, in fact) and the win at Camp Randall last year that was Pryor's coming-out party.

But we all know what went down in West Lafayette this year. Pryor went from the Big Ten's promised one to an uncoached turnover machine in the opening 40 seconds and looked every bit the overwhelmed wide receiver some fear he is. He made poor choices in throwing the football and held on too long waiting for his receivers to get open.

How will his first visit to Happy Valley go any better?

On the road, the Buckeyes average 50 fewer rushing yards per game. Their defense allows 100 passing yards more per game. Will they suddenly break tendency against the Big Ten's best rush defense and its most efficient passer, Daryll Clark?

How are the 2009 Buckeyes better than last year, when they lost in the 'Shoe, 13-6? They've regressed in every major statistical category save defense.

There's no Beanie Wells to carry the ball 30 times. As a passer, Pryor has either plateaued or regressed since his freshman season, depending on who you ask. The offensive line has failed to gel due to injuries and inexperience. The power running game is ill-matched to undersized tailbacks Brandon Saine and Herron.

I won't knock the Ohio State defense. They'll play admirably, and I'm not predicting a blowout on the level of Oregon-USC. Penn State will risk a little on offense, but not much, and the score should remain respectable to both sides, albeit resounding.

But I just don't see how Ohio State can overcome profound mismatches in nearly every offensive category, and comparative deficiencies on the Buckeyes' defense without claiming that God is a Buckeye fan.

If it's a defensive struggle they're calling for, that's fine. But it's still not one I can see ending in Ohio State's favor.

These two teams are eerily similar in their weaknesses: development of a young wide receiving corps, inconsistent quarterback, offensive line issues.

But while Penn State seems to have resolved these issues with the emergence of Graham Zug and Derek Moye in wins over Northwestern and Michigan, Ohio State has papered over them with defeats of bottom-dwelling Minnesota and New Mexico State.

Barring Pryor taking a quantum leap into an excited state (and we saw that happen in the Wisconsin game last year, so there is a chance), there's just no way the Buckeyes will be able to overcome their offensive inadequacies.

Penn State will run the ball, and they will run a lot. After struggling early in the season, the Nittany Lions have rushed for 285, 177, 165, and 163 yards the last four games, all against conference opponents. There will be very little that surprises Ohio State, but they can't expect to keep pace once the mouth-smashing enters the fourth quarter.

Last year's game turned on a Pryor fumble in the fourth quarter that set up a late Nittany Lion score. This game will likely be no different—an Ohio State turnover that puts the Nittany Lions in range for a score, followed by another turnover in desperation that puts the game out of reach.

It just might come a quarter earlier this year.

Penn State 19, Ohio State 3