Predictions for NBA's Top Free Agents Still on the Market
NBA free agency kicked off like gangbusters June 30 with a groundswell of players announcing decisions within just a few hours of the opening bell. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving were part of that group as they agreed to join a Brooklyn Nets team that suddenly looks like it could be among the contenders in the East, even with Durant likely to spend most, if not all, of the 2019-20 season rehabbing his ruptured Achilles.
However, a good number of free agents are still available, and more than a few can help a team as a significant role player.
A couple of them are current or former All-Stars. Another helped the Toronto Raptors win this year's championship.
While the majority of players are off the market, a handful of them are still around to keep us interested. Here are the top five who remain available.
5. Jabari Parker Back to Washington Wizards
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Jabari Parker gets buckets. That's the good news.
Whoever he's guarding also gets buckets. That's the bad news.
Additionally, he's not a very good three-point shooter (31.3 percent from deep last season). So, he's basically the opposite of a three-and-D guy.
Parker is able to punish teams inside, though, as he averaged 3.4 buckets on 66.1 percent shooting within five feet of the hoop in 2018-19. Those numbers aren't far off from Kawhi Leonard, who converted 3.7 such baskets per game while shooting 66.4 percent.
The 24-year-old played well with the Washington Wizards. And according to Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington, he liked playing there:
"Parker, though, has some motivation to consider any offer from the Wizards. He really liked playing in D.C. and considered it the best fit of his career so far.
"Parker indicated as much both publicly and privately. And he remains very fond of the Wizards organization now that months have passed, according to someone familiar with his free agent plans."
Plus, the Wizards gave up Otto Porter Jr. to get Bobby Portis, Parker and a 2023 second-round pick from the Chicago Bulls last season. Portis has already agreed to a two-year, $31 million offer sheet with the New York Knicks, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. If all that's left from the Porter trade is the pick, that's bad.
Parker isn't getting a big deal elsewhere, so look for the two parties to rekindle their relationship.
4. Danny Green to Dallas Mavericks
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Danny Green had a pretty open and interesting response when asked where he might go during an interview with HoopsHype's Alex Kennedy:
"If Toronto brings everyone back, I think we have a really good shot of coming out of the East again. So why would I not want to be there? But things change and things move. [If the Raptors can't bring everyone back], there are going to be other teams who are in the running and I want to see what those situations are. Obviously, I want to maximize on the dollar, but I also want to maximize on the situation. I know I'm not an All-Star or star player, but I want to be remembered as a great role player who won a lot of games and leave my mark in the league."
Based on this response, we can conclude he would prefer the Toronto Raptors keep their team together. And if they don't, he's going to go where he can get paid.
That makes sense since he's now 32 years old and, if it's for multiple years, this will probably be his last notable deal.
The Dallas Mavericks are interested in him, according to Marc Stein of the New York Times, and Bobby Marks reported they still have $22 million in cap space.
Square peg. Square hole. Danny goes for the green and takes a front-loaded contract in Dallas. And if he's going to Dallas when he'd prefer running it back with Toronto, you can guess what that means for a free agent who has yet to appear in this countdown.
3. Marcus Morris to Los Angeles Clippers
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The day before free agency opened, Andrew Greif of the Los Angeles Times tweeted: "Among other dealings today, the Clippers reached out to representatives for Patrick Beverley and Marcus Morris, sources said. Both hard-nosed players, which fits the ID Clippers want for the team. The team obviously knows Beverley well."
Beverley has since agreed to a three-year, $40 million contract with the Clippers, according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, so half of that initial report is already correct.
My suspicion is that the other half will also be correct, but Los Angeles is waiting for Kawhi Leonard's decision before it finalizes anything. If he were to choose the Clippers, they wouldn't also be able to afford Morris.
Morris would fit well in L.A., in part because of the "hard-nosed" attitude Greif mentioned, but also because he has a respectable three-point shot (37.5 percent). The Clippers, who were 24th in three-point attempts last year, could use a stretch 4.
2. DeMarcus Cousins to the Los Angeles Lakers
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One of the more surprising developments of free agency is that DeMarcus Cousins hasn't gotten any real bites. According to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN, "there is not a market for him."
It would make sense for Cousins to join a contender, and he will likely take less money to do so. We know that's feasible because it's exactly what he did last year with the Golden State Warriors.
We also know he was teammates with Anthony Davis while they were with the New Orleans Pelicans and that they were starting to figure out one another just before Cousins hurt his Achilles. According to NBA.com, they had a plus-5.3 net rating on the court together and were combining for 51.7 points, 23.3 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 2.7 steals and 3.7 blocks per game before Boogie went down.
And we also know the Lakers are spending virtually every dime they can to assemble their Big Three, so they'll have to fill out the rest of their roster on a budget.
Wouldn't it make sense to sign Boogie for the room exception?
I'm not basing this prediction on any rumors; I'm basing it on logic and the lack of rumors. It's the best situation for both the player and the team.
1. Kawhi Leonard to the Los Angeles Lakers
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Kawhi Leonard, the summer's top free agent, is still available.
In typical Leonard fashion, while all the NBA world strains to hear something about his decision, he hasn't said anything. Not a peep. You might even say he's been Kawhiet.
Is that intentional? As Lakers Nation's Trevor Lane relayed, Yahoo Sports' Chris Haynes shared on ESPN Los Angeles that he thinks the quietness has indeed been intentional as Leonard's camp tests interested teams to see who can be trusted.
"I don't have anything definite," Haynes said. "I would expect an answer Fourth of July by the latest."
We do know Leonard will either stay in Toronto or go to Los Angeles to play for the Clippers or Lakers.
In Toronto, he could be the leader of the team, defend his championship and make an extra $50 million, which, last I checked, was still a lot of money. With the Clips, he could be the leader of the team and go back home. With the Lakers, he could go back home, be part of the NBA's next Big Three and bring one of the most storied franchises in North American sports back to relevance.
Even after accounting for the extra $50 million, the reward seems greatest with the Lakers because of the endorsement opportunities that would come with wearing the Purple and Gold.
Toronto was such a feel-good story in 2018-19, but Leonard will be a Laker next year.
All stats, unless otherwise indicated, courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.
