Creature vs. Creature: Why Alabama Will Beat LSU

For the second year in a row, Alabama and LSU tangle with a trip to Atlanta on the line.

This used to be Auburn's gig with the annual cat-fight to determine the West. While LSU remains a top team, Alabama has replaced Auburn as the dance partner.

For the Tigers perspective see Henry Ball's article.

It's hard to call this game a rivalry in Alabama because the game is rarely talked about until game week arrives. That's not a knock on LSU's ability, it's just that Alabama fans expend so much time and energy hating Tennessee and Auburn that there just isn't a lot left to throw the Tigers' way.

Plus LSU folks look so charming in their weird purple suits and stuff, it's just hard to hate them. That, and they usually have good food.

I don't recall that much bad blood in Louisiana until Alabama hired their former coach, Nick Saban. It's understandable, but it may be time for them to let it go. It's not like things have been terrible since Saban left for Miami.

As for the players, none of them were involved, so this is just about winning the game.

The only possible issue with the coaches is the psyche of Les Miles. His record at LSU, which includes a national championship season, is outstanding. Even with that success, there are lingering doubts about his ability. Miles' greatest success came with mostly Nick Saban-recruited players. Last year's sub-par season added fuel to that fire.

Miles is known for taking some wild chances in games. Conventional wisdom is to play hard, strong, and keep it close. Tennessee did that two weeks ago and nearly pulled off the victory with a few late plays.

Will Miles buck convention and pull some sort of stunt? If he does and it backfires, he could put LSU in a hole that they can't get out of late in the game. Alabama has some grave diggers at tailback and they can cover you with dirt before the body's even cold.

That said, let's look at the units.

Defense

Alabama employs a 3-4 base defense with a wide variety of options designed to combat the different types of offenses you see in the SEC.

When Alabama goes to the nickle defense, freshman linebacker Nico Johnson exits and the more versatile and experienced senior Corey Reamer moves over from the edge.

Alabama is a premier defense, but they have struggled to replace injured linebacker Dan'ta Hightower. Replacing him in the middle was one thing; replacing his edge rushing on the left side has become a major area of concern.

With two weeks to work on the problem, expect Alabama to get more creative with blitzing. The Tide defense has made far better and more experienced quarterbacks than LSU's Jordan Jefferson look rather bad. Expect an all out assault on Jefferson, both with the pass rush and confusing looks from the secondary.

Alabama may finally unleash sophomore linebacker Jarrell Harris. Harris spent the first half of the year suspended, thanks to running afoul with the NCAA this summer. The four-star recruit from Gadsden, AL has rare speed for a linebacker and can be a game changer if he's ready.

Alabama is virtually a stone-wall against the run. LSU just doesn't have the horses to make that work.

The problem with the run is nose-guard Terrence Cody. He doesn't make many tackles, but he occupies a center and guard on every play. That leaves one of the two middle linebackers unblocked and Alabama has some good ones.

Offense

The Crimson Tide is all about the running game. They can pass the ball some, but it's more of a diversion.

Starting tailback Mark Ingram reminded many of Emmitt Smith when he came out of high school. Ingram lacks the true break away speed just as Smith did, but for the first eight yards, he's a freight train. Ingram is compact and strong at 5'10" and a muscular 212 lbs. So far, he's been unstoppable.

Any time Alabama gets bogged down on offense they whip out the Wildcat. It's not really known if they will ever throw out this formation. Ingram takes the snap, fakes or hands off to the wide-out coming across, and if he keeps it, he runs. It sounds overly simple, but all Ingram needs is a crease and he will gash the defense for yardage.

Alabama will run plays in rapid succession, not allowing for defensive adjustments. The gassed defense often begins to miss tackles as this continues on down the field.

The basic theory of Alabama's offense is to wear you down for three quarters and then pound you into submission in the fourth quarter. Alabama has three experienced running backs behind Ingram to keep him fresh for that final period.

Tide quarterback Greg McElroy is not spectacular to look at, but he's smart. He's taken a rather tough beating in the middle part of the season and it's caused him to shorten his reads and miss some throws. Even in bad days, he's been stingy with the interceptions.

If LSU can't pressure McElroy on a regular basis they could be in trouble. All Alabama needs are a few down-field strikes to open up the running lanes. If that happens, LSU will be cooked.

Special Teams

Alabama has had trouble covering kicks. Improvement has come in that they aren't letting returners score recently, but they are inconsistent when it comes to keeping them short of the 20.

Alabama's return game is simply so good that few dare to challenge them any more. Most teams just kick it short and out of bounds because Javier Arenas is a threat to take anything he touches back for six. LSU challenged Arenas in the past and lost. Don't expect them to try it again.

Alabama's kicker, Lee Tiffin, has been deadly accurate lately. Short of a letdown, he's going to be solid.

Location, Location, Location

Gone are the days when Alabama's stadium was full of aging southern gentlemen complaining that nothing was as good as it was when “Bear” was here.

Alabama's stadium now holds well over 90,000 people. It will be standing room only and the crowd wants a victory.

Alabama's fans want revenge for the loss they suffered at the hands of Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators last year. LSU is all that stands between them and another chance. Expect the crowd to let LSU know that every time they have the ball, especially on third down.

Tuscaloosa is now a very difficult place to play. Several more experienced quarterbacks have come in and had limited success trying to audible their way out of trouble against the vaunted Alabama defense. LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson may not have the right stuff to guide his team out of Tuscaloosa a winner.

Alabama 20-LSU 10